New vs Used Dilemma

[valuebuyer]

Hi All
Newbie here.. so please be gentle
I am in the boat of deciding whether to buy a new Model S or Used (either CPO or private party. I have been struggling with the economics of used car purchase especially with the federal and state credits at play. It seemed like there is a big disconnect between seller and buyer expectations for used cars.
So as an analytical mind, I decided to create a quick worksheet for some quick comparison.
Question at a highest level I am trying to answer is 'Should I buy a used or new Tesla Model S?.
Please see this Google Sheet I have created Tesal Model S new or Used Calculations
Some things to consider
1. Please avoid editing this online version. Just download the Sheet if you find useful and edit there.
2. If you HAVE to change values, change the cells in green. But please undo the changes so that others can comment
3. I am sure I have made mistakes and left out some costs. So please let me know
4. I am assuming 3 years of ownership as a rough point of reference for comparison
5. Extended warranty purchase would really depend on age of the used car. A 2016 an older may not need it for example
6. Not sure of the Resale value after 3 yrs.
7. This calculation doesnt take into account the fact that newer cars have better hardware and more standard features.
8. This doesnt take into account the smell of new car as well as the excitement of new vs old

So looks like buying a new car is actually the way to go especially till the Federal and State credits are around.

I am really looking forward to your thoughts. Like I said, I am sure I have made mistakes. So please be gentle

 

[Retrospected]

Without looking at the data, ask yourself what's the most important features in the vehicles. If you're strictly looking at a wise financial decision, than used might be the way to go.

 

[mach330]

also, how important looks and ap1 vs ap2x is to you.

 

[valuebuyer]

Yeah, also if you are buying a used car which is 2-3 years old, one major expense would be around Tires.. so factor that in as I havent added a row for that.

 

[SammyJr.]

looks good...i would just say this: I doubt you'll be able to sell a 50k used car now, for 40k in 3 years! unless you're getting a crazy deal on the car now! try 30-35k i'd say.

Go new!

 

[valuebuyer]

Without looking at the data, ask yourself what's the most important features in the vehicles. If you're strictly looking at a wise financial decision, than used might be the way to go.

I am not sure if that is true actually. New cars now have the most imp features in general already.
AWD, Air Suspension, they are also 0-60 in 4.2 sec...

 

[valuebuyer]

looks good...i would just say this: I doubt you'll be able to sell a 50k used car now, for 40k in 3 years! unless you're getting a crazy deal on the car now! try 30-35k i'd say.

Go new!

Indeed. that 40k was just a placeholder as I have no clue. I am assuming that new car will depreciate more than old car % wise hence was being generous

 

[Retrospected]

I am not sure if that is true actually. New cars now have the most imp features in general already.
AWD, Air Suspension, they are also 0-60 in 4.2 sec...

Maybe I should rephrase it. When I say used, I don't mean strictly 2013- . A 75D Ap1 for example.

 

[Canuck]

8. This doesnt take into account the smell of new car as well as the excitement of new vs old

You've hit the nail on the head with this one for me. It rarely makes sense financially to buy new vehicles, despite how you run the numbers. But if you can afford it, the new smell, and being the first owner, is one of the best rewards for the hard work of earning the dollars to buy it. Yes, it's a shallow view of life, but every pool has both a shallow and deep end. I'm shallow when it comes to a new car smell -- few things in life are as satisfying, especially since it's fleeting.

 

[BrianSF]

Thanks for putting this together. I've been stuck in this dilemma for the past month but gotten some clarity and ultimately will end up buying a CPO.

My rationale below:

1) Some CPOs are excellent deals if you can find it and likely won't depreciate as fast as new cars. As an example, there was a p85 2014 sub 50k miles, 4 years of warranty, for 41k that sold within minutes.
2) On the depreciation note, I assume the new Teslas won't depreciate much but on average I'm seeing anywhere from 40-50% depreciation from MSRP on used Model S (esp on performance ones)
3) The uncertainty around GOP tax reform puts the 7.5k rebate at risk. Means that there is a good chance that the $7.5k federal rebate goes away next year and folks that don't get their Model S delivered by 12/31/17 are SoL (current projection for delivery are Jan / Feb for most states)

I plan on paying for CPO in cash then three years from now upgrade to another CPO. I just hate stomaching the new car depreciation and if the rebate goes away next year, its a no brainer for me.

 

[BrianSF]

and using your calculations, i would have saved ~$21k in total expenses over 3 years

 

[EdisonR]

Go used because all the bugs have already been fixed.

 

[BrianSF]

And one of my non-financial reasons is auto pilot. I'm primarily going to use this car for longer trips / commuting to work and the stuff I've read about AP2 (I'm sure it will get better eventually) isn't going to work for me.

AP1 vs AP2 from someone who owns both

 

[cartwright]

And one of my non-financial reasons is auto pilot. I'm primarily going to use this car for longer trips / commuting to work and the stuff I've read about AP2 (I'm sure it will get better eventually) isn't going to work for me.

AP1 vs AP2 from someone who owns both

I would recommend getting an extended test drive or maybe even Turo rental to try out AP2. It seems to be very dependent on where you are driving and the types of roads, but some folks with the latest update seem to think it has basically caught up. In my mind that means we are probably < 6 months away from EAP passing AP1, at least somewhat. I tend to keep cars much longer than most people, so maybe you'll upgrade much sooner and it won't be a factor, but at least for me, AP2 was a must.

Also, re: fed tax credit, if you find an inventory car that meets your needs you will take delivery this year, which means you'll for sure qualify. I've had my inventory MS75 for about a week now and keep watching the used market, and at least to hit all of my requirements used wasn't much cheaper. Of course I wasn't looking at any cars older than 2016, so obviously that is a factor.

 

[BrianSF]

I would recommend getting an extended test drive or maybe even Turo rental to try out AP2. It seems to be very dependent on where you are driving and the types of roads, but some folks with the latest update seem to think it has basically caught up. In my mind that means we are probably < 6 months away from EAP passing AP1, at least somewhat. I tend to keep cars much longer than most people, so maybe you'll upgrade much sooner and it won't be a factor, but at least for me, AP2 was a must.

Also, re: fed tax credit, if you find an inventory car that meets your needs you will take delivery this year, which means you'll for sure qualify. I've had my inventory MS75 for about a week now and keep watching the used market, and at least to hit all of my requirements used wasn't much cheaper. Of course I wasn't looking at any cars older than 2016, so obviously that is a factor.

good points, i don't doubt that ap2 will surpass ap1, hopefully in the near term for the ap2 owners

as for inventory ones, been on it but my SA also let me know they're going to be even higher demand now due to the people freaking out about tax rebates.

 

[cameronr]

I wouldn’t count on the CA state rebate as the program is out of money. Has to be refunded in order for rebates (other than those reserved for folks that qualify as low income) to pay out:

Clean Vehicle Rebate Project

 

[LyftupX]

It appears the difference between used x and a new one with rebate and new seats, auto pilot etc are not too far off.
Id lean to new based on what I’ve seen used X for on here and hope to be the one who can unload it at a decent price a few years later if need be.

 

[Sunshine State]

I try to be realistic when someone is comparing AP1 vs AP2. There is no argument that AP1 is currently at least just as good as AP2. Many people, if not most, now agree that FSD will not happen with AP2. Who knows maybe someday FSD may happen with 2.5 or 3. The speedy replacement of 2 with 2.5 reinforces the line of thought that they got way ahead of themselves. The point is if someone was looking at used cars and bought an AP2 instead of an AP1 there are no advanced features they could realistically expect from the 2 over a 1

 

[valuebuyer]

If the comparison is between a new car vs something from 2016 with facelift, seems like new car is the way to go. That does depend on the 7500 Federal tax rebate.
I guess used cars start making sense if you are looking at sub 50k options. At least that is how I am seeing it.
I am hoping that the google sheet I created ends up helping someone else also.
Cheers

 

[cartwright]

If the comparison is between a new car vs something from 2016 with facelift, seems like new car is the way to go. That does depend on the 7500 Federal tax rebate.
I guess used cars start making sense if you are looking at sub 50k options. At least that is how I am seeing it.
I am hoping that the google sheet I created ends up helping someone else also.
Cheers

Yep, I concluded the same thing in my research.