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New York Times article vs. the Stock Market

Discussion in 'Tesla Motors' started by TheAustin, Sep 30, 2012.

  1. TheAustin

    TheAustin Model S: P2009 P85

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    So, what effect do you think the New York Times article will have on Tesla stock tomorrow? Plus/Minus? How many points?

    My take is that it's a largely positive article , on the front page of the automotive section of a widely popular (non-industry) publication, which will probably introduce the Model S (and Tesla) to a fair number of people who have never heard of the car, or the company before. I'm thinking it's going to be good for at least a couple of points, and push the stock up to around $32-33/share.

    Disclosure: I do not currently hold any positions on Tesla, nor do I plan to initiate any in the next 48 hours (as much as I would like to though!).
     
  2. aznt1217

    aznt1217 Active Member

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  3. doug

    doug Administrator / Head Moderator

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    You have a photo of that front page?

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    I don't think it's wise to have your entire life savings in any one thing.
     
  4. Discoducky

    Discoducky Active Member

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    It's a good article and talks about the benefits of SCing well and shows how you can drive the car hard and still get great mileage.

    But I don't expect much of a bump, if any, only because the market is interested in those extra shares this week. And then the earnings announcement later this month which will be fun to listen to as it appears as if TM is trying to push out all the Sig's prior to Halloween.

    Disclosure: I never put all eggs in one basket, but do have quite a bit of TSLA stock.
     
  5. TheAustin

    TheAustin Model S: P2009 P85

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    Here you go, Doug...

    TeslaNewYorkTimesArticle.JPG

     
  6. CapitalistOppressor

    CapitalistOppressor Active Member

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    Well.. having it in a single mutual fund isn't the worst choice if its the right mutual fund.

    However, having it all in Tesla is a poor idea unless you are young and can survive losing everything. I am extremely bullish on Tesla and I have been aggressively buying shares since late July and early August any time the stock has been below $29 (my average purchase price has been ~$28). I keep 2/3rds of my investment money in non-aggressive mutual funds and 1/3rd which I use as "mad money" to generate more risk exposure.

    Frankly, I am rapidly transitioning the majority of my mad money into Tesla because I see a huge potential upside. Because I am only 38 I feel comfortable with the idea of taking a total loss on my Tesla investments. But it's extremely important to recognize that there is higher than normal chance of a complete wipeout with a company like Tesla.

    If you are very young its probably no big deal, but you really need to think about whether you would risk your life savings on an even odds spin of a Roulette wheel. If that idea freaks you out, you probably should diversify the majority of your money out of Tesla and into a quality mutual fund(s).
     
  7. dpeilow

    dpeilow Moderator

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    That looks like the supercharger drive article below too. Did they include the map?
     
  8. Zzzz...

    Zzzz... Member

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    #8 Zzzz..., Oct 1, 2012
    Last edited: Oct 1, 2012
    1) What happens if huge tsunami would hit Japan again and destroy Panasonic li-ion plants? Or other Japanese plants that supply chemicals for cell production? What about major earthquake in Japan with similar consequences? Tesla Factory probably would be stalled for half a year at least. LG Chem might not have enough capacity. Many other established major players that could potentially produce required number of kWh(li-ion cells), for example China Aviation Lithium Battery(CALB) do use different chemistry (iron-phosphate), and that chemistry would require substantial redesign of Model S(battery pack would weight ~1.6/~2 more, increasing curb weight, and thus needing reinforced basic structure, modification of suspension etc.). Even with cells that have roughly similar characteristics to Panasonic ones, modifications of battery thermal management system, electric BMS would have to be implemented. Design, prototype, testing phases... And 6 months idling could have devastating effect on shares value(huge dilution).

    2) What happen if five Model S would be involved in separate fire incidents during one very unlucky week? With some human casualties. Fires do not have to be started by Model S. Good enough if in first 3 cases Fire Department would not be able to determine cause of fire (remember first Karma fire? Cause is unknown but it is still Fisker fire from public/investors point of view).
    Tesla most likely survive, as company and a brand. Just like GM survived. But anyone who were holding GM shares in 2007 and have not sold them, you know, in 2009 those shares had less practical use and value then toilet paper(while GM doing fine now).

    3) What happen if misaligned/partly malfunctioning robot start producing bad welds, and during real world crash family of seven would die in accident. Because of weakened main structure blamed on Tesla Motors. Mass recall plus multimillion settlement plus bad publicity...

    4) Have you thought as to why wi-fi is not enabled, at least as of now? For the record, hackers remotely penetrated Google security and even gained access to some internal server that contained some source code... What if some anti-EV(or anti-American) third party figure out the way to gain control of Model S using built in GPRS/3g or whatever modem? And start crashing cars by randomly accelerating cars while disabling brakes? After TM deliver it VIN 6000. Not likely, I mean API exposed probably tiny and any remotely downloaded code should be digitally signed... But still feel free to Google something like "stack overflow attack".

    Panic among current owners/mass cancellations/recall/bad publicity === ...

    And Sony was very proud of PS3 security(digital signatures were there, among other measures). Now anyone could run any code on any PS3, including all future version of PS3 that are backward compatible with existing library of published games (ironically Xbox 360, and even original Xbox, to be able to do it you have to make hardware modifications, Microsoft ftw lol). Estimates say that small mistake cost Sony hundreds of millions $$$, damage done by pirates. Or remember whole PlayStation Network was hacked and down in 2011... And we are talking about huge corporation that invested billions into product...

    5)...

    ...

    100) ...

    Any such event have very little chance of happening. But this is sort of lottery. In lottery there is small chance of winning big. Here is a small chance of losing big. But chance unfortunately still exist. Sure up to you, and I agree most likely Tesla have a very bright future.... But still.
     
  9. TheAustin

    TheAustin Model S: P2009 P85

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    Yes, that's the article...They included a map of the writer's California drive (Lake Tahoe to Los Angeles) and where he filled up (I have to stop saying that right?! Sorry: Recharged!) but not a SuperCharger map specifically.

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    Here is the continuation of both articles after the jump...

    TeslaNewYorkTimesArticleJump.JPG

     
  10. aznt1217

    aznt1217 Active Member

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    Yes I am well aware it isn't wise to do so. I'd like to think I am young, but I know enough when to get out if necessary and also have been staggering my position with Tesla for quite some time.

    It's a long term play that I firmly believe in. It's all about the Risk - reward payout.
     
  11. Mycroft

    Mycroft Life happens

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    9 miles range remaining when he pulled into Harris Ranch. That's not going to give readers a warm and fuzzy. Wonder if it's because he was in standard range mode, (due to using the superchargers), and/or because he was driving at 70mph?
     
  12. ckessel

    ckessel Active Member

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    Life savings can be a somewhat nebulous term. I essentially have all of my savings in TSLA, which I suppose means my life's savings. However, that's just an actual savings account. That's not a 2nd on the house dumped into TSLA. My 401k is untouched. My current cars are paid off. In a nutshell, I can afford to lose what's in TSLA in total. It'd suck. It'd suck a lot! But it's not money I'm depending on for some other purpose.
     
  13. Arnold Panz

    Arnold Panz Model Sig 304, VIN 542

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    FYI, in the National (non-NY) edition of the paper, the Automobile section is in the back of the Sports section. The two articles (reviewing the S and about the superchargers) too up the entire page. It's another great feather in Tesla's cap, but will have no impact short term on the stock, just like the WSJ front page glowing review didn't really impact anything stock-wise, although it may garner more than a few additional reservations.
     
  14. bmek

    bmek Member

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    +1

    It may help 'shoppers' put in some reservations. Also, the article may give additional confidence to existing reservation holders and reduce the concellation rate.

    All good ...

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    Wondering if you are trading on any of the volatility.
     
  15. aznt1217

    aznt1217 Active Member

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    Nope definitely not. Can't be attached to the comp all day and can't bother.

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    Exactly. What ticks me off is people who write an opinion on the stock and then aren't willing to back it up with action.
     
  16. markb1

    markb1 Active Member

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    He didn't fully charge the battery, though. From the article:

    So estimated range of 254 miles, drove 203 miles, had 9 miles remaining.
     

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