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So, if both of these are true (limited Tesla manufacturing scale and sudden market change), then that suggests the market will create manufacturing capabilities in parallel, such as competing battery factories, or an about-face on the luck of Tesla to scale their battery manufacturing themselves (also probably massive parallel investment). Massive rapid worldwide factory retooling isn't unprecedented, but last time we did it we practically lost our greatest generation and it ushered in an era of the worst generation and we are still reeling from its awful effects. Here's to hoping cataclysmic background doesn't befall any successful rapid conversion scenerio.
All kinds of folks believing electrics are coming soon. I believe a massive rapid transition to EV's will solve many of the worlds problems.

Eclectic cars inevitable soon, energy minister says
Tehran Times Social Desk
 
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Then there comes the problem of building the batteries. The world builds about 100 million cars and light trucks per year, Tesla is aiming to build 500,000 Model 3s a year with the Gigafactory output. To support switching the entire world's car production over to electrics will require at least 200 Gigafactories. The first one isn't finished yet, and while Tesla will probably break ground on Gigafactory 2 in a few years, nobody else in the world is even hinted at being interested in building their own. Most mainstream car makers have their head in the sand about electrics. They build them because they have to and want to appear green, but even the "mass produced" electrics like the Volt and Leaf are built in tiny numbers compared to ICE cars from the same manufacturers. I believe Chevy is aiming to build about 50,000 Bolts a year, less than Teslas production levels when the Bolt will be introduced and one of the lowest volume vehicles in the GM lineup, they sell almost as many Corvettes.

If the Model 3 takes off, the other car makers will panic and get serious about electric cars, but they won't even break ground on the battery factories until 2020 or later. It would be impossible to build 50 million BEVs a year by 2026. If the Model 3 is popular, it's quite possible there will be the demand for 50 million BEVs by 2026, but the market won't be able to deliver. Maybe a few million a year by then. Maybe, it depends on how much resistance there will be from the ICE lobby when the handwriting is on the wall.

This post got me thinking...

Tesla Lining Up Broadside Attack On Auto Industry Lobbying
 
And for balance, I feel compelled to share this article (published today!):

"At a starting price of $33,170 for a 2016 Chevy Volt to more than $101,000 for an electric Tesla Roadster (the cheapest model), these so-called “green” cars are far beyond the reach of most American families. In fact, most workers have less money today than 40 years ago: average American wages have fallen from $53,294 in 1973 to $50,383 in 2014, using constant 2014 numbers.
And yet, all levels of government have instigated numerous rules that favor electric and hybrid vehicles at the expense of American families, who continue to see costs rise for nearly every essential commodity, thanks to regulations, special tax treatments and executive actions. Only gasoline, diesel fuel and natural gas prices have fallen – thanks to the fracking revolution that has unleashed US oil and gas production."

Government-Style OpEd | Eurasia Review

OMG, really?

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More fun here:

CFACT -

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And for balance, I feel compelled to share this article (published today!):

"At a starting price of $33,170 for a 2016 Chevy Volt to more than $101,000 for an electric Tesla Roadster (the cheapest model), these so-called “green” cars are far beyond the reach of most American families. In fact, most workers have less money today than 40 years ago: average American wages have fallen from $53,294 in 1973 to $50,383 in 2014, using constant 2014 numbers.
And yet, all levels of government have instigated numerous rules that favor electric and hybrid vehicles at the expense of American families, who continue to see costs rise for nearly every essential commodity, thanks to regulations, special tax treatments and executive actions. Only gasoline, diesel fuel and natural gas prices have fallen – thanks to the fracking revolution that has unleashed US oil and gas production."

Government-Style OpEd | Eurasia Review


And for counter-balance (and a reality check):

Fossil fuels subsidised by $10m a minute, says IMF | Environment | The Guardian

FuelSubs_Numbers-3-0-0.png
 
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"Cutting-edge technological developments - in renewable energy and hybrid or electric vehicles, for example - will be indispensable in building these cities (and, more broadly, a clean and efficient economy). Although much research remains to be done, such technologies are increasingly accessible. In bringing about change, however, vested interests are a formidable sparring partner."

http://allafrica.com/stories/201511092570.html

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"Europeans need to end subsidies for fossil fuels, multiply energy efficiency efforts, improve mass public transport systems and accelerate the roll-out of electric cars in order to live up to their commitments, Stern told the Guardian in an interview."

'A one-off in human history': Stern's warning on climate change battle | World news | The Guardian

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"When developing countries are examined, some of the major factors that have a positive impact on the growth of electric car market are seen as government policies and incentives. With the improvements in battery technologies, tougher emission standards and increasing infrastructure of charging facilities, electric cars are expected to be used more widely in future."

It is experiencing an increase in electric cars worldwide | Middle East News 24
 
"Many governments around the world are helping stimulate demand for EVs with various incentives, from cash for trading in old, polluting cars, to free parking and EV access to bus and high-occupancy lanes. We are also working daily with governments and businesses to expand the charging infrastructure that's necessary if EVs are to go mainstream. In places where such investments have taken place, such as Norway and the U.S. city of Atlanta, customers have reacted positively and sales have grown rapidly."

Automotive Purchasing - "Paris climate change deal is critical for smooth transition to a low carbon economy" - Carlos Ghosn
 

This is where Canada is somewhat more European in their attitudes than the United States. In the US, any idea to ban cars from city centers would be political suicide, even in the most liberal cities. Most US cities would have to invest billions in mass transit infrastructure before cars could even consider being banned, and that's per city. Portland has a pretty good light rail system, but it runs at max capacity and there are still enough cars on the road to be a headache at rush hour. Seattle has finally started building a light rail system, but it's been extremely expensive and slow to build. The bus system in Seattle isn't bad downtown, but get outside the city core and it's quality drops dramatically. The buses also don't go between where people work and live. In the last 40 years a tremendous number of jobs have gone to the suburbs, but the traffic planners don't seem to realize that. And Seattle and Portland are two very liberal cities.

The US also has to contend with people like this:
http://www.digitaljournal.com/news/...pickup-trucks-spew-black-smoke/article/388821

There are enough people like this to completely paralyze the US political system.
 
Many of these articles exposing Oil subsidies don't take into account America's Military spending protecting OPEC countries. And this subsidy is actual cash taken from taxpayers -not abatements or rebates. Add to the fact Europe and the rest of the world provide little or no money in this "subsidy". OPEC countries don't even fight their own wars! We do it for them. An excellent analogy would be this- Imagine if Elon built the GFactory in one of the most worn torn countries on the planet (ie Somalia,Sudan). After which he asked (and got) the Military to provide protection of battery transport, paid off surrounding countries, and start a couple wars to protect GFactory etc. Can you imagine the response of the media? (and rightfully so). But for Oil we do this everyday for 50+ years. And to the extant where regular Americans don't even notice at all. I feel that when the media attacks EV subsidies and not Oil I'm in the Matrix or something. It's bewildering.
 
Many of these articles exposing Oil subsidies don't take into account America's Military spending protecting OPEC countries. And this subsidy is actual cash taken from taxpayers -not abatements or rebates. Add to the fact Europe and the rest of the world provide little or no money in this "subsidy". OPEC countries don't even fight their own wars! We do it for them. An excellent analogy would be this- Imagine if Elon built the GFactory in one of the most worn torn countries on the planet (ie Somalia,Sudan). After which he asked (and got) the Military to provide protection of battery transport, paid off surrounding countries, and start a couple wars to protect GFactory etc. Can you imagine the response of the media? (and rightfully so). But for Oil we do this everyday for 50+ years. And to the extant where regular Americans don't even notice at all. I feel that when the media attacks EV subsidies and not Oil I'm in the Matrix or something. It's bewildering.

Awesome post, thanks!

Bewildering indeed!

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Here's one estimate:

Costs of U.S. Foreign Policy for Oil

Estimates of how much the decision to defend oil supplies has cost the U.S. taxpayer have always been hard to come by. About a decade ago, Greenpeace and Earthtrack published a study indicating that the cost of defending oil supplies were at least $10 billion annually. A more recent peer-reviewed study from Roger Stern, an economic geographer at Princeton, outlines an even greater cost of $7.3 trillion over 30 years.

War Terror - Oil Change InternationalOil Change International
 
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Here's one estimate:

Costs of U.S. Foreign Policy for Oil

Estimates of how much the decision to defend oil supplies has cost the U.S. taxpayer have always been hard to come by. About a decade ago, Greenpeace and Earthtrack published a study indicating that the cost of defending oil supplies were at least $10 billion annually. A more recent peer-reviewed study from Roger Stern, an economic geographer at Princeton, outlines an even greater cost of $7.3 trillion over 30 years.War Terror - Oil Change InternationalOil Change International

Wow, I did not know this excellent info. And I'm sure that study did not include the cost of Iraq war 1 and 2 which were trillions onto itself. Add this to everything else, and no media coverage at all. But Nevada deferring GFactory real estate tax on desert land that nobody wants...headline news. Absolutely incredible.
 
Wow, I did not know this excellent info. And I'm sure that study did not include the cost of Iraq war 1 and 2 which were trillions onto itself. Add this to everything else, and no media coverage at all. But Nevada deferring GFactory real estate tax on desert land that nobody wants...headline news. Absolutely incredible.

I thought it was worth separating out the Princeton study: http://www.princeton.edu/oeme/articles/US-miiltary-cost-of-Persian-Gulf-force-projection.pdf

Time for #RealChange

Ktown on Twitter: (please like and retweet!)

Rapidly Melting Glacier Has Enough Mass To Raise Sea Levels By Nearly 2 Feet

http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2015/11/13/3722002/another-glacier-is-dying/

irvine_greenland_glacier-638x615.jpg