Benz
Active Member
That's interesting.
So you expect to hear an announcement about the gigafactory in 2014?
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News week of Jan 6?
- Thread starter fryfrye
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- Tesla Inc.
That's interesting.
So you expect to hear an announcement about the gigafactory in 2014?
bonnie
I play a nice person on twitter.
I expect to hear it no later than end of Q2, but possibly in Q1. Probably a lot of contractual details to work out with the partner or partners. Okay, no 'probably' about it. A lot of details. I'm guessing on timing, but I'll be surprised if it goes longer than end of Q2. Gigafactories can't be built overnight & to have it in place for GenIII, they need to get going now.
Benz
Active Member
If they start delivering Gen 3 in 2016/2017 (given the track record in timing predictions with MS and MX, I'd say end of 2017), my conjecture is they probably won't hit mass production until 2017/2018. They may hold out on details as the battery technology is still evolving, to prevent verbally committing to anything too early. I do expect Elon to start talking more about what he has in mind, and probably how Panasonic will be involved. But who knows, maybe that's what Panasonic is in Detroit for next week
If they start delivering Gen 3 in 2016/2017 (given the track record in timing predictions with MS and MX, I'd say end of 2017), my conjecture is they probably won't hit mass production until 2017/2018. They may hold out on details as the battery technology is still evolving, to prevent verbally committing to anything too early. I do expect Elon to start talking more about what he has in mind, and probably how Panasonic will be involved. But who knows, maybe that's what Panasonic is in Detroit for next week
I am cautiously optimistic about possible battery news revealed at the Panasonic press-conference, but we need to realize that Panasonic also has sizable automotive stereo systems business. Since the press conference schedule states Panasonic without mentioning the business unit, there is a chance that the press conference will be linked to their automobile audio unit (or whatever it is called)
RobStark
Well-Known Member
I woudn't put too much hope on large scale battery swap rollouts. JB said he wants to get charging down to 5 minutes at some point in the future, so I don't think they'll invest in the swapping infrastructure and battery inventory. The resources are probably better spent with expanding supercharger coverage. The swapping station(s?) in California are mostly to get the extra government credits that require "fast refueling".
RobStark
Well-Known Member
I think Tesla already sold the ZEV credits it got from the fast refueling capable battery swaps so my guess is they will have at least a station or two in SF and LA.
That would be news. Some friends who live in downtown condos that don't have a garage swear that would make a huge difference between buying and not buying a Model S.
I'm sure that's how they feel, but in practice the swaps wouldn't make any difference to their decision unless they happened to live right next to the swap station. No one is going to want to drive 20-40 minutes across LA or SF to swap batteries every few days.
For swapping to help folks without daily charging access (such as condo folks) they'd have to be as ubiquitous as gas stations and that'll never happen. The solution for those folks will be wide scale charging access, which means a huge shift in EV adoption driving such infrastructure change.
Benz
Active Member
RobStark
Well-Known Member
Toyota's analysis says six minutes within a hydrogen station is good enough. Six minute radius during non-rush hour covers a rather large radius.
One downtown where people work and one in West Los Angeles where there are a lot of condos could get the ball rolling. If people were constantly using them paying $85 to swap batteries that would be feedback for Tesla to make more.
If not then that would be feedback they are not working.
If 5 minute 300 mile charges happen real soon that would be great but not holding my breadth on that score.
Two tiny data points for whatever it's worth, during this the news week where there's actually no news:
1) I heard another little bird earlier this week chip that there was a surge of orders at the end of the year, due to people wanting to take advantage of the $7500 federal tax credit before the year was out.
2) On another note, my local service center is completely out of loaners; apparently they had 12, and they are all gone, forcing everyone to use Enterprise rental cars (which Tesla not only pays for, but they even take care of the gasoline, which no other car company has ever done for me ever).
1) I heard another little bird earlier this week chip that there was a surge of orders at the end of the year, due to people wanting to take advantage of the $7500 federal tax credit before the year was out.
2) On another note, my local service center is completely out of loaners; apparently they had 12, and they are all gone, forcing everyone to use Enterprise rental cars (which Tesla not only pays for, but they even take care of the gasoline, which no other car company has ever done for me ever).
I wonder if this is one of the news items...
Tesla to Upgrade Wall Adapters After Reports of Garage Fires - Bloomberg
Tesla to Upgrade Wall Adapters After Reports of Garage Fires - Bloomberg
I spoke to a source out west who said that the all hands call was an online video conference w Elon. Apparently Elon addressed rumors about him selling the company. Elon reassured employees that he was definitely not selling since he thought the acceleration of electrical transport was of critical importance to the world. He also congratulated employees on a phenomenal year, spoke to the number of cars delivered in 2013 (source wouldn't comment on the #). He also spoke to how they were basically going to double production in 2014 and spoke to the desire to build a battery factory. Source also commented about how Elon wanted to ensure quality/perfection for all cars coming off the line. I commented to my source that it seems like there have been challenges on small issues (but not big ones) with a number of cars including ours and that it's tough to balance quality and quantity at same time.
Employees also had an opportunity to ask Elon questions. Apparently there was one question about unions. Source said that everyone watching rolled their eyes.
I brought up yesterday's announcement about Tesla shipping new adapters and source said that was news to him/her and was not the focus of the all hands conference.
Employees also had an opportunity to ask Elon questions. Apparently there was one question about unions. Source said that everyone watching rolled their eyes.
I brought up yesterday's announcement about Tesla shipping new adapters and source said that was news to him/her and was not the focus of the all hands conference.
Raffy.Roma
Rome (Italy)
This is good intel. We know Tesla has guided to 21,500 cars in 2013, but most here probably expect a good Q4 and thus exceeding 22,000. So 2x that is 44,000. We also know Elon said a month ago they are producing 600 cars/week and that by the end of 2014 they want/expect to produce 800 a week. Those numbers now look conservative as a ramp from 600-800 over the year would yield about 35,000 cars. So they are positioned to exceed expectations. Good news.
And a battery factory would be good news too.
Chickenlittle
Banned
ok you called for wild speculation. Here is mine based on
1. CES Panasonic display a tesla. No auto stereo or electronics
2. Press conference by Panasonic at auto show next week
3. Saw picture of model x interior with 230 mile range left with battery bar showing about 40% depleted
have they ever said range of model x. Could it be increased by battery tech, size or "gearing with 2 motors"
