Next generation 2170 cell battery packs

[Garlan Garner]

I think there are a few reasons for Elon saying 100kWh is likely all that's needed:

1. Tesla made no chemistry improvements in their 90-100kWh pack increase and repeated that chemistry improvements would happen with the 2170 pack.

2. For reference -- The Gen 2 2170 Powerwall doubled energy density over its Gen 1 18650 counterpart, added an inverter, and is only 23% heavier. Think about that for a second. Also note that the Gen 2 Powerpack doubled density at the same physical unit size.

3. As @Troy mentioned, chemistry improvements will lower weight, which will improve range. A 2170 100kWh pack will likely achieve greater than 350 miles of range.

4. Finally, I think Elon/Tesla view the need for more than 350 miles as a corner case. One of the main reasons for this I believe are the range gains vs charging requirements. The main advantage in a 500 mile battery is not in plain long distance travel, but in towing something long distances.

I would absolutely LOVE 350 miles worth of range.

That would give me a lot more ludicrous take-offs from my garage to the street. I plan on shooting out of my garage in the blink of an eye. My neighbors won't even see me leave the house. lol.

I'm not kidding about the ludicrous take-offs though. I plan on that being a daily activity.

 

[Canuck]

Teslas opinion and my opinion about what to announce are running hand in hand so far..... I am certainly not the only one running 100% with Tesla on this kind of stuff. Its pretty simple.

It has nothing to do with anyone's opinion since it's not opinion based. It's fact based. Here's the fact based rule:

TESLA RULE: Tesla will not announce something if it will cause people to delay a purchase. Tesla will announce something if it causes people to purchase.

A few examples, but there are may others, and they always follow this one simple rule:

AP1.0 & AP2.0 - No announcement since it will delay people to purchase.
Refresh - No announcement since it will delay people to purchase.

60 increase by $2k - Announced since it causes people to purchase.
No longer free supercharging - Announced since it causes people to purchase.

 

[Garlan Garner]

It has nothing to do with anyone's opinion since it's not opinion based. It's fact based. Here's the fact based rule:

TESLA RULE: Tesla will not announce something if it will cause people to delay a purchase. Tesla will announce something if it causes people to purchase.

A few examples, but there are may others, and they always follow this one simple rule:

AP1.0 & AP2.0 - No announcement since it will delay people to purchase.
Refresh - No announcement since it will delay people to purchase.

60 increase by $2k - Announced since it causes people to purchase.
No longer free supercharging - Announced since it causes people to purchase.

Link?

 

[Canuck]

Link?

Seriously? Tesla would never announce this rule. It takes a genius like me to decode it.... (Actually, it's a pretty obvious rule for anyone running a business.)

I could run you through every change since the Model S/X were introduced and they follow this rule. If you, or any else, disagrees with this rule, then please post the change that breaches it.

I'm all ears!

 

[Garlan Garner]

It has nothing to do with anyone's opinion since it's not opinion based. It's fact based. Here's the fact based rule:

TESLA RULE: Tesla will not announce something if it will cause people to delay a purchase. Tesla will announce something if it causes people to purchase.

A few examples, but there are may others, and they always follow this one simple rule:

AP1.0 & AP2.0 - No announcement since it will delay people to purchase.
Refresh - No announcement since it will delay people to purchase.

60 increase by $2k - Announced since it causes people to purchase.
No longer free supercharging - Announced since it causes people to purchase.

I understand what you are saying...trust me.

To me. It really didn't matter when they announced the $2k price increase was going to occur. I don't think the $2K price increase pushed $60K + purchasers. I really don't. These people are going to purchase a Tesla because they obviously have the money to do so. $60K or $62K? What really...what is the difference? It's an unprovable thing but I have a very difficult time thinking that $2k is moving the sales of a $60K + car before taxes.

Now AP2.0. As I stated in the above quote about the $2k. Its not a provable thing, but I don't believe Tesla would have lost ANY customers or delayed any orders if they announced a future date ( 2 to 3 weeks ) of AP2.0 coming on the scene. Along with a promise to give current customers the option to move to AP2.0 for the increased price - since they haven't taken delivery. Tesla wouldn't have lost any customers.
How about - "Hey potential customers" ..... Next month we are rolling out AP 2.0 for $8K. for everyone who has placed an order you have the option of paying an additional $6K or you can keep your current version of AP1.0.

 

[Canuck]

To me. It really didn't matter when they announced the $2k price increase was going to occur. I don't think the $2K price increase pushed $60K + purchasers. I really don't. These people are going to purchase a Tesla because they obviously have the money to do so. $60K or $62K? What really...what is the difference? It's an unprovable thing but I have a very difficult time thinking that $2k is moving the sales of a $60K + car before taxes.

The rule doesn't require people to purchase, only cause people to purchase or delay. So when it comes to a change, Tesla only has to put it in one of two columns (to decide whether to announce): (1) cause to purchase; or (2) cause to delay -- and the 60 $2k increase only fits in one column - so it was announced.

Having said that, there's no issue in my mind that Tesla's sales figures will show a jump in 60 sales before the deadline. I also always find it funny when people say things like a few thousand bucks doesn't make a difference to rich people on a large purchase. In my experience, wealthy people are some of the most cost conscience people I know. That doesn't mean they don't buy expensive items, but saving a buck even on an expensive purchase makes a big difference to many of them -- since that's how many of them got to be wealthy in the first place.

 

[Shumdit]

Nope. I chose my words carefully and I've made them really simple so that there is no interpretation necessary.

Tesla has been announcing everything perfectly since AP2.0 in my opinion. They are announcing all things that are vitally important to their customers and simply changing things that aren't vitally important to its customers.

The heartbeat of Tesla and its customers are lining up just fine. That's one reason they are so successful.

Pardon my rudeness, but you are not in touch with reality on this subject. What announcements have they made specifically? End of free supercharging? Motivation for fence sitters to buy. Model S 60 going up $2000? Ditto. There has been absolutely no change with how they handle announcements/changes since the AP2.0 announcement. If you think they have read these posts you or a few other "squeaky wheels" have made and changed their MO I am afraid you are dreaming. You claim they announcing all things that are vitally important to third customers but you make that statement based on the assumption that your opinion of what is "vitally important" line up with every other potential or current Tesla customer and that's just such a self-important perspective. Some people might find things you find irrelevant like loss of options a deal breaker. Conversely a 60 or 75 customer would not care about a 100 upgrade and some people might be disinclined to use AP and therefore do not care about what it offers. The truth is that they make announcements that will motivate people to buy sooner in advance but make announcements that will cause people to delay ordering only when they are ready to bring those items to market. They may "hint" about upcoming changes in vague terms or timeframes but they are not about to announce " "we will release a new battery pack with the 2170 cells with 125kWh for $1000 more than the current 100kWh in 8 months". They would not even make such an announcement on a shorter delay.

 

[HebrHmr]

The rule doesn't require people to purchase, only cause people to purchase or delay. So when it comes to a change, Tesla only has to put it in one of two columns (to decide whether to announce): (1) cause to purchase; or (2) cause to delay -- and the 60 $2k increase only fits in one column - so it was announced.

Having said that, there's no issue in my mind that Tesla's sales figures will show a jump in 60 sales before the deadline. I also always find it funny when people say things like a few thousand bucks doesn't make a difference to rich people on a large purchase. In my experience, wealthy people are some of the most cost conscience people I know. That doesn't mean they don't buy expensive items, but saving a buck even on an expensive purchase makes a big difference to many of them -- since that's how many of them got to be wealthy in the first place.

I tried to talk my way out of the $500 order change when the all glass came out. Didn't work...but you make a good point. That was $500 on ~$150k.

 

[Garlan Garner]

The rule doesn't require people to purchase, only cause people to purchase or delay. So when it comes to a change, Tesla only has to put it in one of two columns (to decide whether to announce): (1) cause to purchase; or (2) cause to delay -- and the 60 $2k increase only fits in one column - so it was announced.

Having said that, there's no issue in my mind that Tesla's sales figures will show a jump in 60 sales before the deadline. I also always find it funny when people say things like a few thousand bucks doesn't make a difference to rich people on a large purchase. In my experience, wealthy people are some of the most cost conscience people I know. That doesn't mean they don't buy expensive items, but saving a buck even on an expensive purchase makes a big difference to many of them -- since that's how many of them got to be wealthy in the first place.

Its a personal belief of mine that those who can afford a $60K car will purchase it even if its $2k more - IF they really want the car. I'm not going to use the term wealthy because that's relative.

I don't care if a $1 pack of gum increases to $2 because I can more than afford it even it were $3 or $10. In this example - I wouldn't purchase a $10 pack of gum because I wouldn't think it would be worth it...not because I can't afford it.

A MS going up $2k would not make it unworthy. Therefore I don't believe it will change any sales from those who can afford it at $60k.

 

[Garlan Garner]

I tried to talk my way out of the $500 order change when the all glass came out. Didn't work...but you make a good point. That was $500 on ~$150k.

But HebrHmr....even though you try and haggle....be honest - you were going to buy the car anyway. Tesla wasn't going to loose your sale because of $500 on your $150k car.
$500 was neither going to put your car in the unaffordable category nor the unworthy category.

See there is a big difference between someone being able to afford a widget and someone not believing the widget is worth the price.

 

[Canuck]

Its a personal belief of mine that those who can afford a $60K car will purchase it even if its $2k more - IF they really want the car.

Of course they will. That's why Tesla upped the price. But I don't see what this has to do with our discussions about how Tesla decides to announce, or not announce, changes.

In any event, we've probably derailed this thread enough. I had thought I was posting in the 60 increase thread until I noticed the title why typing my last post... ha! Sorry folks interested in the battery change.

Now back to regular programming...

 

[Garlan Garner]

Of course they will. That's why Tesla upped the price. But I don't see what this has to do with our discussions about how Tesla decides to announce, or not announce, changes.

In any event, we've probably derailed this thread enough. I had thought I was posting in the 60 increase thread until I noticed the title why typing my last post... ha! Sorry folks interested in the battery change.

Now back to regular programming...

Yes. back to regular programming.

 

[Garlan Garner]

Pardon my rudeness, but you are not in touch with reality on this subject. What announcements have they made specifically? End of free supercharging? Motivation for fence sitters to buy. Model S 60 going up $2000? Ditto. There has been absolutely no change with how they handle announcements/changes since the AP2.0 announcement. If you think they have read these posts you or a few other "squeaky wheels" have made and changed their MO I am afraid you are dreaming. You claim they announcing all things that are vitally important to third customers but you make that statement based on the assumption that your opinion of what is "vitally important" line up with every other potential or current Tesla customer and that's just such a self-important perspective. Some people might find things you find irrelevant like loss of options a deal breaker. Conversely a 60 or 75 customer would not care about a 100 upgrade and some people might be disinclined to use AP and therefore do not care about what it offers. The truth is that they make announcements that will motivate people to buy sooner in advance but make announcements that will cause people to delay ordering only when they are ready to bring those items to market. They may "hint" about upcoming changes in vague terms or timeframes but they are not about to announce " "we will release a new battery pack with the 2170 cells with 125kWh for $1000 more than the current 100kWh in 8 months". They would not even make such an announcement on a shorter delay.

Its getting personal. I'm not responding to insults.

Back to our regularly scheduled programming as it has been stated.

 

[Shumdit]

Its getting personal. I'm not responding to insults.

Back to our regularly scheduled programming as it has been stated.

Sorry if you take it personal. I just have an issue with people who think their own personal preferences are reflective of everyone else's. I also personally find it offensive (hard to explain why, but I just do) that you imply that the thread you were involved with regarding you feeling like Tesla lied to you/mislead you by not giving you an upgrade path or some sort of refund made them change the way they handle announcements. History shows that this is not the case and if you can't take in the facts and logically reach the same conclusion that is something you have to come to grips with.

 

[Cloxxki]

It's a great point, Tesla can't say they'll expect to put the first 125kWh cars in production March 2017. Good luck selling a single super high margin P100DL. Most will get cancelled, all Tesla gets is the deposits.
They have been forthcoming with WHY they are making 2170 (way cheaper, in-house, better density). If buyers are waiting for Elon's Tweet to telegraph a 125 pack a year beforehand, they are not really getting how business works.
I have no link, but didn't Tesla express intent to eventually bring down cost of cars when they manage to produce them cheaper? Eventually they'll have to, as one after the other car maker is claiming they can make their cars or batteries at that same price level. One day, someone will just do it. A more clever technology, a more efficient way about it than 8000+ cells wired up to make a pack, something simpler/faster t produce...
Model S and X were to help pay for Model 3 developement. And they did. What's next?

If anything, the 125 pack will reduce Supercharger use. More people will make it home on the (home or destination) charge they did the night before. They'll skip the last Supercharger an 85 would still need to hit up.
Once superchargers are boosted to deliver 150kW, the big pack cars may well accept that maximum charge rate up to 200-250 miles of range. As in, a very short SuC stop will possibly have them skip the next one even.
And indeed, the towing. Now most people in $150K+ cars will not often tow something, but as Tesla or competitors bring down profit margins on big pack cars, it will find lots of eager caravaning customers. And imagine the impact on the Electric GT series, upgrading from 85 to 125 at only a modest weight increase if any.
2170's will make racing/track day use much more viable. Perhaps they can even challenge Formula E packs from the get-go, for energy density per weight? Porsche will make next season's FE packs I believe. Curious what they'll cook up.

 

[Troy]

The following section in THIS Tesla blog post is relevant:

This September we began shipping version 2 of our Powerpack system. With a new energy module and power electronics, Powerpack 2 provides twice the energy density

It looks like Powerpack 2 uses 2170 cells but I haven't heard anything about cell production at the Gigafactory. My guess is, Panasonic switched part of the production in Japan to 2170 cells. Also, Elon recently said that the 2170 cells are the best and cheapest cells (Source). I'm not surprised because when you increase energy density, you need less material to store the same energy. Because 2170 cells are cheaper per kWh than 18650 cells, Tesla will lose money if they delay the switch. My best guess is, the Model S and X will switch to 2170 cells in March 2017. The cells will be imported from Japan and they will continue making the Model S and X packs at Fremont, at least until late 2017.

3 weeks before Tesla published that blog post, Electrek wrote the following. Notice how Electrek's information about twice the energy density was exactly confirmed by Tesla later on. Therefore the information they received about 2170 cells also looks credible.

Now sources with knowledge of the Powerpack 2.0 program told Electrek that Tesla is preparing to launch a new generation of the battery pack, which has been referred to as ‘Powerpack 2.0’, toward the very end of the year. The new pack will make full use of the new 2170 cell format and sources say that it will double the energy capacity of the system. Source

Someone break it down for us dummies.

Tesla will switch the Model S and X batteries from 18650 to 2170 cells because the new cells are cheaper to manufacture according to Elon (Source). The reason the new cells are cheaper is because they can store more energy per kilogram and therefore the cost of materials is lower. The discussion is about when the switch will happen and what the battery capacity will be after the switch.

Guys, when do you think they'll ditch the 18650 format for good and start using 2170 in Model S & X? In other words, when do you think they will launch an S 100D with 2170 cells and what range do you think it will have?

March 2017. S100D with 2170 cells might have 12 miles more range than the soon to be released S100D with 18650 cells.

 

[Garlan Garner]

It would not be business savy to sustain making 2 different battery types. 2170 is going to be what they will use. Its been stated and so it is.....

Why are there any questions about this?

 

[scaesare]

@Troy, thanks for the references there...

 

[agloutney]

100 kWh is 100 kWh whether it comes from an 18650 or a 2170. You just need less 2170s to do it. Why would the 2170 get 12 more miles?

Edit: You mean the weight decrease will account for the 12 miles difference? I wouldn't expect that if driving steadily at highway speeds. Maybe in the city though with a lot of stop and launch.

 

[Troy]

@agloutney, yes I mean because of weight reduction, the S100D with 2170 cells might have 12 miles higher EPA rated range than the soon to be released S100D. Updating the EPA range of existing models is something Tesla does regularly. For example, if you open the design studio now and look at S60's rated range, it says 210 miles EPA rated range. However, it was 208 mi in the past. You can see both cars side by side here. The rated range is shown under the small car icon in the middle. Similarly, in February 2016 the S90D used to have 288 mi EPA rated range (Source), but if you open the design studio now, it says 294 mi EPA rated range.