Likelihood may decrease, but expense will increase... Not only expensive lights but sensors!Very true, however with the new sensor hardware (ultrasonic, radar, camera) and rolling out of firmware upgrades this year, I expect that the likelihood of front end damage will decrease significantly compared to pre-September 2014 Teslas.
The likelihood of major crashes that total the car may not reduce as much, but minor crashes may reduce quite a bit. It will be interesting to see what happens over the next few years.