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Next model 3 version to be produced

ItsNotAboutTheMoney

Well-Known Member
Jul 12, 2012
10,631
7,799
Maine
Is it generally thought the AWD version will be LR with the interior upgrades? Or will there be any choice other than RW vs AWD?

General thought is that Tesla will prioritize the most profitable available version and won't be able to produce the lower spec versions until they've ramped up and improved margins.

So when AWD arrives it'll be LR AWD + PUP, possibly also with air suspension required.
 

PhaseWhite

Member
Aug 12, 2017
863
2,335
Minneapolis,MN
General thought is that Tesla will prioritize the most profitable available version and won't be able to produce the lower spec versions until they've ramped up and improved margins.

So when AWD arrives it'll be LR AWD + PUP, possibly also with air suspension required.
They might even prioritize the Performance model first given its higher margins.
 

ninefiveone

Member
Jun 7, 2017
164
216
SF Bay Area
Given the challenges they’ve had with battery pack production, it’s hard to see them spinning up production of a different battery pack anytime soon. They need to both maximize profit and minimize execution risk right now. Sticking with just the LR pack for as long as possible is a great way to do that.
 

voip-ninja

Give me some sugar baby
Mar 15, 2012
4,124
4,694
Colorado

Looks like he last mentioned this on twitter last year but was referencing 2018.

However with the nearly six month schedule slide it doesn't seem too likely (to me) that the performance version will arrive this year. Keep in mind that SR version will now be delayed by nearly a year from original estimates and AWD version that was supposed top start shipping at the end of 2017 won't be shipping until late this year.

So, giant lumps of salt for everyone on any unrealistic expectations.

tesla-model-3-performance-elon-musk
 
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rhaekar

Member
Nov 9, 2017
455
367
San Diego
My guess, next is AWD + SAS + PUP + LR, then Performance, then they open up the configuration fully with a SR option. It makes sense they release the more expensive models first so people that are on the fence will buy the more expensive option instead of waiting. Once those sales start trickling down, they open up the cheaper models and sales jump back up.
 

sub

Active Member
May 24, 2013
1,482
2,431
Sonora California
I wouldn't think the delay of general car and battery production also means that P version is delayed equally, the development of these two things can be completely unassociated on a time basis.

I have no dog in this fight however (other than owning TSLA), had two model 3's reserved from day 1 but bought a model X and cancelled one reservation. Still planning to buy one model 3 in the next 1-2 years.
 

ModelNforNerd

Active Member
Apr 17, 2015
4,096
3,917
Norway, ME
Looks like he last mentioned this on twitter last year but was referencing 2018.

However with the nearly six month schedule slide it doesn't seem too likely (to me) that the performance version will arrive this year. Keep in mind that SR version will now be delayed by nearly a year from original estimates and AWD version that was supposed top start shipping at the end of 2017 won't be shipping until late this year.

So, giant lumps of salt for everyone on any unrealistic expectations.

tesla-model-3-performance-elon-musk


He may not have explicitly confirmed it recently, but if Tesla's design language is any indication, seeing a Dual Motor car with red brake calipers driving around the Bay Area is maybe a good sign.


Tesla Model 3 Performance possibly spotted ahead of dual motor rollout


We'll know soon enough. If they hit their 5,000/week goal, then the Design Studio should be taking orders for AWD and/or (maybe) Performance sometime in June.
 
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PhaseWhite

Member
Aug 12, 2017
863
2,335
Minneapolis,MN
Looks like he last mentioned this on twitter last year but was referencing 2018.

However with the nearly six month schedule slide it doesn't seem too likely (to me) that the performance version will arrive this year. Keep in mind that SR version will now be delayed by nearly a year from original estimates and AWD version that was supposed top start shipping at the end of 2017 won't be shipping until late this year.

So, giant lumps of salt for everyone on any unrealistic expectations.

tesla-model-3-performance-elon-musk


There's precedence for the Performance 3 being delivered first. Tesla already did this once when they introduced the P85D. Also if you don't have the time to automate the steps for the new line and require more manual labor for the dual motor AWD versions, it makes sense to start the manufacturing process with the higher margin car so you don't skew your margins

From Tesla Model S - Wikipedia:

On October 9, 2014, Tesla announced the introduction of All-Wheel Drive (AWD) versions of the Model S's 60, 85, and P85 models, designated by a D at the end of the model number.[82][83][84]
...
Deliveries of the P85D started in December 2014, with the 85D models starting in February 2015, and the 70D models starting in April 2015.[83]
 
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voip-ninja

Give me some sugar baby
Mar 15, 2012
4,124
4,694
Colorado
There's precedence for the Performance 3 being delivered first. Tesla already did this once when they introduced the P85D. Also if you don't have the time to automate the steps for the new line and require more manual labor for the dual motor AWD versions, it makes sense to start the manufacturing process with the higher margin car so you don't skew your margins

From Tesla Model S - Wikipedia:

On October 9, 2014, Tesla announced the introduction of All-Wheel Drive (AWD) versions of the Model S's 60, 85, and P85 models, designated by a D at the end of the model number.[82][83][84]
...
Deliveries of the P85D started in December 2014, with the 85D models starting in February 2015, and the 70D models starting in April 2015.[83]

We'll see but my money is on dual motor (possibly with forced air suspension) arriving before a performance model does.

The take rate on a $5K option like dual motor is going to be a LOT higher than on a performance version that probably carries a $10K if not $15K premium.
 

ModelNforNerd

Active Member
Apr 17, 2015
4,096
3,917
Norway, ME
We'll see but my money is on dual motor (possibly with forced air suspension) arriving before a performance model does.

The take rate on a $5K option like dual motor is going to be a LOT higher than on a performance version that probably carries a $10K if not $15K premium.



We don't know what "performance" entails on the Model 3 though. If the difference between AWD and Performance is only software, aka an "uncorking", they'd be crazy to not offer it up right away. That's a high margin config if you can add another $7500-$10K with just software.
 

voip-ninja

Give me some sugar baby
Mar 15, 2012
4,124
4,694
Colorado
We don't know what "performance" entails on the Model 3 though. If the difference between AWD and Performance is only software, aka an "uncorking", they'd be crazy to not offer it up right away. That's a high margin config if you can add another $7500-$10K with just software.

It is highly unlikely it is just software, but sure, it's possible.

Do you really think the performance version is going to have the same brakes that the regular LR version has? The brakes that didn't hold up to 6 laps at Seca without requiring the owner get the car towed to the shop for a $3,000 repair?

I kind of doubt it.

In the Model S, if memory serves, there are physical differences as well including a different ceramic fuse or current limiter that allows more power to flow from the battery to the drive motors.

It really comes down to what Tesla is after. If they are just looking to shave 1 second off the 0-60 time then sure, I agree, can probably be done with software.

If it's to better compete with cars like the BMW M3, then just having a similar 0-60 time is not going to cut it. At $60K the BMW M3 is a track weapon with very high performance brakes and a track tuned suspension. If that's the target Tesla has for their $60K-$70K Performance version of the model 3 I imagine that they want to produce a car that is similar in price to a BMW M3 or Audi RS4 but will absolutely destroy those cars on the race track.

My source for this hunch is Musk's ego.
 

ModelNforNerd

Active Member
Apr 17, 2015
4,096
3,917
Norway, ME
It is highly unlikely it is just software, but sure, it's possible.

Do you really think the performance version is going to have the same brakes that the regular LR version has? The brakes that didn't hold up to 6 laps at Seca without requiring the owner get the car towed to the shop for a $3,000 repair?

I kind of doubt it.

In the Model S, if memory serves, there are physical differences as well including a different ceramic fuse or current limiter that allows more power to flow from the battery to the drive motors.

It really comes down to what Tesla is after. If they are just looking to shave 1 second off the 0-60 time then sure, I agree, can probably be done with software.

If it's to better compete with cars like the BMW M3, then just having a similar 0-60 time is not going to cut it. At $60K the BMW M3 is a track weapon with very high performance brakes and a track tuned suspension. If that's the target Tesla has for their $60K-$70K Performance version of the model 3 I imagine that they want to produce a car that is similar in price to a BMW M3 or Audi RS4 but will absolutely destroy those cars on the race track.

My source for this hunch is Musk's ego.




All valid points. But if the air suspension, brakes, and maybe a software upgrade (as opposed to different motors) are the only differences, they may be able to run 2 lines, making AWD on one and Performance on the other. They've gotta chase those high margin configs.


When Elon said they'd be in the black for Q3 and Q4 by outputting 5K Model 3's/week, none of those 5K are going to be RWD Standard Range.
 

Uncle Paul

Well-Known Member
Nov 1, 2013
6,296
6,864
Canyon Lake,CA
I do not believe that Tesla is interested in building road course dominating cars at this time. The batteries are still quite heavy and heat up under heavy discharge. Brakes, tires and wheel bearings would take a beating. They are happy to see that their cars do well at the drag strip, but they are more interested in providing non polluting and engaging vehicles for safe personal transportation.

Imagine the first AWD models will have a small motor at each end, communicating with each other and the battery pack to add efficiency and additional traction for regions that deal with snow and ice.

Next will come a small front motor and larger rear motor to give additional performance.

Cars performance will be tuned for great street capabilities, but not so much for the race track. A track version will need additional cooling for the battery pack, ceramic brakes and ultra high performance tires.

In past versions, they were released with conservative tuning. As time went on, and the factory found ways to release additional performance, they were uncorked to provide that performance.

I have raced street cars on the tracks before, and it is more a matter of heat management than driving as fast as you can. You need to breath the brakes when you can, and reserve their heat capacity until you really need them. The engine is the same. Full throttle at high revs all the time mostly overwhelmes the cooling system and the needle moves up into the red zone. A few conservative laps are necessary to bring those temps down so you can get agressive again. You learn not to put your parking brake on when coming into the pits. That is a sure way to warp a brake disc or boil your brake fluid.
 
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