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NHTSA Close to forcing recall of FSD after more crashes

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"One of the common misimpressions is that when there is, say, a serious accident on Autopilot, people – or some of the articles – for some reason think that it’s because the driver thought the car was fully autonomous and it wasn’t, and we somehow misled them into thinking it was fully autonomous. It is the opposite.

When there is a serious accident, it’s in fact almost always, maybe always, the case that it is an experienced user and the issue is more one of complacency. They get too used to it. That tends to be more of an issue. It is not a lack of understanding of what Autopilot can do. It’s actually thinking they know more about Autopilot than they do, like quite a significant understanding of it." - Elon Musk

I agree with Elon on this, people think the system is more capable than it is because of their personal experience. I see people posting about how far they've gone on Autopilot without a disengagement as proof that the system is safe enough to use without paying attention to the road. I've never seen anyone post that they use Autopilot without supervision because Tesla told them they could.
 
Tesla does not define "autopilot" as being able to change lanes, etc. I definitely am not "enabling autopilot". This is one of the reasons I dont usually participate in any of these discussions. "FSD Beta" is also a driver assist aid (its not level 3) so I dont get whatever distinction you are drawing there for yourself.
Lane changing was part of the Enhanced Autopilot package, so yes, it is Autopilot, not FSD.
 
One thing I think we ALL can agree on. Whomever made the decision to name things "autopilot", "Full Self Driving", "Full Self Driving Beta", made horrid decisions with those names.

From how things are seen I do agree on that. The third one being the worse, but by then Tesla didn't even have a PR department.

But, to the actual experience behind the wheel? I don't think it made much difference because what a persons experiences matters so much more than what something is called or even what's in the user manual.

If AP performs well in the rain to the point where it feels like its going to do a better job than me then I'll use it while complaining about all the Tesla around me not having their lights on in the rain.

If AP performs really well over tens of thousands of miles I'm going to have an unintentional trust relationship with it. Where even if I don't intend to trust it I still do. Now that's not the case and instead I'm in "what were these idiots thinking?" camp. Where nothing about my AP experience would have me trusting AP at all.
 
That we need infrastructure improvements for L3+ vehicles.
I think you must work at a V2X startup. haha.

I only have love for L4, and everything else is a distraction.
We need infrastructure improvements to reduce all accidents, and to increase the operating domain of L4 vehicles. It's easy for L4 vehicles to simply exclude areas with safety issues. But, that's not really what we want.
I don't work at a V2X startup, but without V2X of some kind the entire promise of L4 will fall right on its face. We also can't allow ourselves to be subjected to dumb stop lights any long.
 
Yes, the wording has been mixed up and we (posters here) have only added to the confusion.

The first part of your response is correct, the second half is the confusion that has perpetuated.

Tesla (as far back as I’ve seen but am open to be corrected if you can find otherwise) has only sold AP which didn’t used to be free/included (or some variation of that like Enhanced Autopilot) and “Full Self-Driving Capability” package. They’ve never sold something just called “Full Self-Driving” (FSD). That “capability” is how they’ve always hedged that package because it’s referring to the hardware & future software unlock included, not current abilities. This isn’t just “legalese” but the language mixups have perpetuated the confusion. Many have arguably complained this should include any future hardware upgrades like camera suite, MCU2, or for all of us now a future HW4 if HW3 is determined not enough. Personally, I see various sides of this argument and am just 🤷🏻‍♂️ because we are all trying to predict the future here.

We shouldn’t be ever using the term FSD in reference to anything currently existing, but instead here are the 3 terms Tesla used/uses and therefore we should be sticking to (but I know we won’t, haha):

Autopilot (or AP): this software suite of features includes TACC and autosteer. It’s a more advanced version of what other brands label Lane Keep Assist (LKA). Some parts of this are still considered beta by Tesla (designated in the car screen menu). This is now included with every new Tesla, but used to need to be purchased as a package, and at one time in the USA you could also purchase the Enhanced Autopilot package (and on top of that you could purchase the FSD Capability package). Some markets still sell the Enhanced Autopilot package, but it’s just a regrouping of the same group of features (or nerfed features in some markets due to regional regulations).

Full Self-Driving Capability (or FSD Capability): this is what people usually mean by FSD, but “usually” means often people are confusing this with that future promise of actual FSD or confusing it with the currently existing FSD beta program (more on that below). Paying for this package (when it was $3k, $10k, or now $12k) is locking in any future software feature releases including up to FSD when that’s actually available. During the HW2.5 phase, it also locked in a hardware upgrade to HW3. It currently adds a few more features on top of the (didn’t used to be) included AP features. Currently these include NoAP, Auto Lane Change, Autopark, Summon (both “dumb” and Smart Summon), and Traffic Light and Stop Sign Control. Many (if not all) of these features are still designated by Tesla on the car screen menus as in beta. But you are correct in saying this says nothing about the “FSD beta” program.

FSD beta: this is that “limited early access program” that’s not something you can pay for (but you do have to have paid for FSD Capability package/subscription to be considered). A couple years ago only some Tesla employees and some YouTubers/Twitter influencers (and maybe some “Early Access Program” members) got this. Then last Fall they opened it up to ~2,000 of the public via Safety Score 100 (many of us here got into this group), and have since kept opening it up to more cars. This is obviously designated by Tesla also as in beta, and includes the “Autosteer on City Streets” features that has been promised eventually (no exact timeline in the purchase/subscription legal terms) to all cars with FSD Capability package/subscription. This is what I’d understand as what you heard isn't ready for prime time.

Clear as mud? 😂 I’m happy to help clarify if you have more questions.
Thanks, and this agrees with my understanding of the issue, although I didn't really know all the details of what the FSD capability package added since I don't have it. I'm really trying to see it more from an average new buyer's viewpoint who is less knowledgeable about the details. It's not really clear, at least not compared to conventional language where there would be a disclaimer or footnote about extra features not always included. The addition of the word "capable" is not really a very good hedge, IMO. Who would think a company would sell something that is capable of a nonexistent product? I totally understand about the cars (supposedly) having all the hardware abilities for future software, but I'm pretty technical; I know a lot of potential Tesla buyers who are not at all knowledgeable about this.

Bottom line: I think there is a difference between "is capable" and "will be capable". Tesla should have made that more clear to the naive buyers.
 
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There is no "regular FSD". There is AutoPilot and there is the FSD hardware package that will in the future add self-driving capabilities.

Drivers who buy a car with the FSD hardware package do not get FSD software. They get Autopilot with a few extra features (Navigate on AP, Smart Summon, and stop sign/stop light beta), none of which are considered to be self-driving. And of those, only stop sign/stop light beta is even specific to the FSD package at all. The rest are all part of enhanced autopilot. None of the highway functionality from the FSD package is even slightly different from enhanced autopilot.

There's a reason they call the beta "FSD Beta". It is the first version of the Tesla software that is considered to be in any way self-driving, i.e. not a pure driver assistance feature. What you're calling "normal FSD" is explicitly NOT FSD, because it is not considered self-driving. It is an ADAS feature ONLY, and the instructions make that very, very clear. FSD beta is the only version that is considered driver monitoring to verify self-driving capabilities, as opposed to the car merely trying to reduce the mistakes that the driver makes.
This is rather muddled. The "full self driving computer" hardware (aka HW3) is the hardware package, now standard on all cars, and retrofitted to most cars for those who purchased the "FSD" package (since HW3 is needed for this package).

"Full Self Driving" aka FSD is actually an options package available for purchase, which includes things like Smart Summon and auto lane change on freeways (today), and a promise of "city streets" driving in the future. Thus, "FSD" isnt a feature at all, its a bundle of features that you can purchase from Tesla.

However, since the major feature of the FSD package is the (future) "city streets" feature, and many (most?) people who purchased FSD did so in anticipation of this feature, the term "FSD" is now almost synonymous with the city streets feature. This is even true of Tesla, who have an "FSD preview" that allow the car (today) to do limited handling of traffic signals and stop signs. Of course, technically they should have named this "city streets preview" if they followed their own naming conventions. Similarly, the term "FSD beta" is used to mean "city streets beta", even by Elon.

So technically, there is no such thing as "FSD beta" since the package itself is not in beta. It's more correctly "FSD package with Smart Summon beta (etc) and, for selected purchasers, city streets beta". But of course no-one bothers to say that.

As for ADAS, none of the FSD (or non-FSD) package features are (currently) advertised as being, or intended to be, true autonomous driving in the sense of SAE L4/L5. They are all, including "city streets", intended as L2 driver assists, with aspirations to go toward higher SAE levels later (robotaxis etc etc). Yes, some earlier, and rather overly-optimistic Tesla advertising made much more dramatic claims for city streets, but thats long gone.
 
Sure there is - turn on dumb cruise and wait for the NHTSA to recall every other model with it manufactured since 1968. Of course this would be much less safe but safety doesn't seem to be their objective.
5.19 deaths per 100 million VMT when cruise control was introduced in 1968
1.08 deaths per 100 million VMT in 2014 (all time low!)
Autopilot released late 2014.
Enhanced Autopilot released late 2016
FSD Beta released late 2020
1.31 deaths per 100 million VMT in 2021
:rolleyes:
 
This is rather muddled. The "full self driving computer" hardware (aka HW3) is the hardware package, now standard on all cars, and retrofitted to most cars for those who purchased the "FSD" package (since HW3 is needed for this package).

"Full Self Driving" aka FSD is actually an options package available for purchase, which includes things like Smart Summon and auto lane change on freeways (today), and a promise of "city streets" driving in the future. Thus, "FSD" isnt a feature at all, its a bundle of features that you can purchase from Tesla.
Options package, hardware package, po-tay-to, po-tah-to. It also includes the promise of future hardware upgrades if they determine that they can't pull off FSD on your existing hardware. So it's a bit more than just a software options package.


However, since the major feature of the FSD package is the (future) "city streets" feature, and many (most?) people who purchased FSD did so in anticipation of this feature, the term "FSD" is now almost synonymous with the city streets feature. This is even true of Tesla, who have an "FSD preview" that allow the car (today) to do limited handling of traffic signals and stop signs. Of course, technically they should have named this "city streets preview" if they followed their own naming conventions. Similarly, the term "FSD beta" is used to mean "city streets beta", even by Elon.
Agreed, mostly. Calling it "city streets beta" would be a bit inaccurate, because it also introduces a lot of functionality that is required for autonomous highway driving as well (assuming they've unified the highway driving by now — I've kind of lost track). In particular, the base Autopilot software (including Enhanced Autopilot) AFAIK still doesn't implement emergency vehicle detection, which would be a strict requirement for full autonomy even on the freeway.

FSD Beta, by contrast, is generally believed to provide all of the features required for autonomy (in various states of readiness) on city streets and on the highways (in the U.S., anyway). It's the first beta that could legitimately be called autonomous, even if its current state of readiness is not yet to the point of it actually being safe to actually use it that way, hence calling it FSD Beta is a pretty accurate description, IMO.

I don't see anyway to fix AP1 vehicles
Upgrade them to AP2.5. They're already pulling a bunch of HW2.5 boards to upgrade people to HW3. Assuming there's not too much power draw for the 12V lines or too much heat dissipation, it should be a fairly minor change to swap out the HW1/MobileEye center camera cluster with a current-generation cluster, using a custom wiring harness adapter to connect the two main front cameras (leaving the mostly useless wide camera unconnected) to the wires currently used for the HW1 front camera and driver-facing camera, along with a second wiring harness adapter at the other end to adapt it to connect into a HW2.5 board. I'm pretty sure AP2.5 has enough horsepower to do pure vision with just the front cameras well enough for lane keeping and accident avoidance.
 
Thanks, and this agrees with my understanding of the issue, although I didn't really know all the details of what the FSD capability package added since I don't have it. I'm really trying to see it more from an average new buyer's viewpoint who is less knowledgeable about the details. It's not really clear, at least not compared to conventional language where there would be a disclaimer or footnote about extra features not always included. The addition of the word "capable" is not really a very good hedge, IMO. Who would think a company would sell something that is capable of a nonexistent product? I totally understand about the cars (supposedly) having all the hardware abilities for future software, but I'm pretty technical; I know a lot of potential Tesla buyers who are not at all knowledgeable about this.

Bottom line: I think there is a difference between "is capable" and "will be capable". Tesla should have made that more clear to the naive buyers.
If you haven’t purchased FSD Capability package yet, you can see what features would be added on your account page, or in the Tesla app under subscriptions => software. But yes, it has always been a “forward looking” package purchase/subscription that includes “some” features now
 
This is one good scenario for Tesla, IMO. A recall by the NHTSA gives them an out from having to deliver working FSD to customers. Elon: "We had it solved at the end of 2022 but regulators prevented us from rolling it out to customers. Without the fleet sending data to train in Dojo, FSD will be delayed for years. No refunds."
 
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This is one good scenario for Tesla, IMO. A recall by the NHTSA gives them an out from having to deliver working FSD to customers. Elon: "We had it solved at the end of 2022 but regulators prevented us from rolling it out to customers. Without the fleet sending data to train in Dojo, FSD will be delayed for years. No refunds."
That's just silly talk. Tesla shows no signs of wanting to abandon FSD.
 
While my Tesla S has at times done the most stupid thing under FSD beta like recently almost crashing into the rear of an eighteen-wheel truck I have never been in a position where I could not avoid any and all potential problems. While I am upset with Tesla threatening to disconnect FSD Beta from me because they say I was driving dangerously when all I am guilty of is paying attention to the road and not the warning on my screen to turn the wheel in time. And on one occasion I received a disconnect while at a traffic light. In point if I were not paying attention as with most FSD drivers Tesla would have thousands of accident reports. I recently in one day got three warnings while at a traffic light STOPPED.
 
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Without a method of recognition without some sort of radar FSD will not function 100%. What happens to Telsa cars when the weather changes during an unmanned drive and a message comes up vision not working. Who takes over the wheel? Do you think the company that has gone to outer space does not know this? While a great tool and I love it FSD will as configured now will never work under all conditions.
 
Without a method of recognition without some sort of radar FSD will not function 100%. What happens to Telsa cars when the weather changes during an unmanned drive and a message comes up vision not working. Who takes over the wheel? Do you think the company that has gone to outer space does not know this? While a great tool and I love it FSD will as configured now will never work under all conditions.
That's a big problem for all companies - consumer/commercial RADAR and LIDAR do not work as well in rain/snow/fog, as the signals get occasionally scattered by the effects. I think higher-end (FAA, Military-Grade) can handle weather much better (obviously since planes fly in rain).
 
That's a big problem for all companies - consumer/commercial RADAR and LIDAR do not work as well in rain/snow/fog, as the signals get occasionally scattered by the effects. I think higher-end (FAA, Military-Grade) can handle weather much better (obviously since planes fly in rain).
Real world commercial pilot here - Radar on planes is only used for depicting weather, there is no autopilot functionality related to it. The landing guidance lateral and longitudinal is done via a VHF transmitter on airport. Getting to the airport area is mostly done via GPS and some VHF beacons absent of air traffic control giving direct vectors.
 
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Real world commercial pilot here - Radar on planes is only used for depicting weather, there is no autopilot functionality related to it. The landing guidance lateral and longitudinal is done via a VHF transmitter on airport. Getting to the airport area is mostly done via GPS and some VHF beacons absent of air traffic control giving direct vectors.
Correct - But towers watch planes in the air with radar, don't they? How does that work with rain?