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NHTSA Finds Tesla Accident Rate Drops 40% After Autosteer Installed!

Discussion in 'Tesla' started by EinSV, Jan 19, 2017.

  1. EinSV

    EinSV Active Member

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    In its Autopilot report today, the NHTSA reported that accidents in AP-equipped Tesla's dropped by a remarkable 40% compared to Tesla's without AP.

    According to the NHTSA data, AP-equipped Teslas appear to be almost twice as safe as Teslas w/o AP. And this likely understates the safety benefits of AP, since AP is only in use part of the time.

    NHTSA’s full final investigation into Tesla’s Autopilot shows 40% crash rate reduction

    The key figure is below. Congrats to Tesla and the Autopilot team -- pretty amazing result for Autopilot's first year.

    [​IMG]
     
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  2. Andyw2100

    Andyw2100 Supporting Member

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    Nice find.

    This should silence a lot of Tesla's critics.
     
  3. somnambule

    somnambule Member

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    As a bit of context, the data above (that shows a 40% reduction) is for crashes with airbag deployment, according to the NHTSA report. So this isn't some meaningless reduction in fender-benders etc. It's big reduction in serious crashes that is very meaningful.
     
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  4. McRat

    McRat Active Member

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  5. EinSV

    EinSV Active Member

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  6. Andyw2100

    Andyw2100 Supporting Member

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    That's an over-simplification though, isn't it? The majority (I'm guessing--I don't know the actual numbers) of Teslas that have Autosteer also have AEB, and similarly the majority (guessing again) of Teslas that don't have Autosteer also don't have AEB.
     
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  7. apacheguy

    apacheguy S Sig #255

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    I don't see how this can be attributed specifically to autosteer. More likely the safety features (which are enabled by default without paying for AP upgrade) are causing the majority of decline in accidents.
     
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  8. somnambule

    somnambule Member

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    Right, the way I understand it, the comparison is of vehicles without AP to vehicles with AP. It doesn't take into account what fraction of time AP is on or not, and what aspects of AP is contributing to the difference. It's even entirely possible that more careful drivers started buying Teslas in 2015 or something (although unlikely).

    In some ways, it's a very simple metric and doesn't give you detailed insights. On the other hand, that simplicity is what makes it hard to argue with in terms of the value of AP. There's isn't much to it -- introduce AP and accidents go down.
     
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  9. Joer293

    Joer293 MODEL X P100DL

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    The report doesn't go into detail, but it's likely a 40% accident severity reduction and some % accident avoidance. AEB (automatic emergency braking) is just one safety improvement available in AP HW 1 vehicles. DBS (Dynamic brake support) and CIB (Crash imminent braking) are likely the key difference between air bag deployed, and fender bender in many new car brands. Not just Tesla. pre-AP vehicles also did not include blindspot warnings.
     
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  10. EinSV

    EinSV Active Member

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    I agree. As I understand the report, it includes all 2014-2016 Teslas and compares rates of accidents where airbags deployed for vehicles with Autosteer enabled and those without it enabled, even if they have AP hardware. I assume NHTSA did their homework and if the difference reported was attributable to AEB, which as I understand it is active even without Autosteer enabled, they would have noted that in the report.
     
  11. ggr

    ggr Roadster R80 537, SigS P85 29

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    Footnotes to the actual report:
    In other words, they are comparing the crash rates in the same vehicle pool before and after autopilot (more particularly Auto Steering) was enabled, and ignoring whether it was in use or not at the time. This is extremely impressive.
     
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  12. ChadFeldheimer

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    So the non-autopilot pool is biased towards drivers that have had less experience with the car. No doubt less experienced drivers would be less familiar with the driving dynamics of the car - and perhaps more prone to accidents. I wonder what the accident/airbag deployment rate looks like when plotted by year of ownership.
     
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  13. MP3Mike

    MP3Mike Active Member

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    It sure doesn't say much about the driving quality of Tesla buyers. :p
     
  14. DriverOne

    DriverOne Supporting Member

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    I wonder how lives and injuries a 40% drop equates to.
     
  15. McRat

    McRat Active Member

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    The traffic fatality rate is now climbing since leveling out in 2013, but today has the safest cars in history on the road. No attempts to resolve any real issues, just crash survival rates is no longer working.

    We have to remove the drivers. They cannot learn the skills necessary anymore. If you make something idiot-proof, all it does is make superior idiots that will defeat the idiot-proof safeguards.

    It's sad. I have always enjoyed driving and I think webphones suck. But I will have to give up driving so folks can safely Twitter 24/7/365. It's 2017 folks, you can buy cars with phones in them already for decades. Even cheap cars.
     
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  16. jbcarioca

    jbcarioca Active Member

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    The statistics on crashes while texting are pretty confirming of your view, especially as texting while driving is increasing. I have not seen definitive statistics comparing accident rates by use of smartphones or other mobile devices lately. The IIHS even states taht the definitive statistics are not currently available.
    Q&As
    Despite that the statements of accident cause from several Brazilian States by DETRAN (State Departments of Transportation) were so devastating that use of phones while driving is now illegal in Brazil, as it is in many countries.

    It seems to me there is no need for much statistical evaluation on this one. Distractions, whatever the cause, increase accident risk. The famous idiot Tesla driver in Florida would still be alive if he'd not been watching a movie.

    Mark Rosekind, the NHTSA Administrator, has spent his career studying fatigue and distraction in Transportation.
    NHTSA Administrator Mark R. Rosekind
    I may be biased because I have met him and talked with him about such issues. It is not coincidence that he and other in NTSB and NHTSA are strong advocates of developing automated driving aids and autonomous systems.
    As an enthusiastic driver myself I'm less enthused. Frankly, as an aircraft pilot I prefer to hand fly. The is exactly zero question that machines make fewer errors than do people. The 'secret sauce' is in reducing the error rate and improving reliability.
    So, in the age of Twitter for idiot Geezers we might as well accept it. Automation's safer.

    Maybe McRat and I can drive together without automation on a private course somewhere?
     
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  17. swaltner

    swaltner Member

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    This is correct. Reading the actual report, (GASP, right????) this is the text associated with the figure showing the 40% drop. It's only a 12 page report and is pretty interesting actually.

     
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  18. McRat

    McRat Active Member

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    I try to stay sharp by running AutoX events (baby roadrace <65mph) for car control, and attend driving schools still. I took my youngest to his first AutoX last Sunday. Hopefully he will join me for the season. He did well for his first time out.

    I enjoy driving, always have. But I keep the hotrodding on closed courses.

    Full on roadracing has been paused by family decision until the kids are both in college. 2 more years.

    The only time I use the car phone is emergencies. Most months I never use it once.
     
  19. Andyw2100

    Andyw2100 Supporting Member

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    The man was a retired Navy seal. It's possible, though not proven, that he made a mistake that day. Assuming he did, that mistake cost him his life. I don't think he deserves to be spoken about, after death, using the language you used.
     
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  20. McRat

    McRat Active Member

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    If it was not a truck, but a school bus, and 10 kids died would anything change? If not, what if the kids were family members?

    I have total contempt for anybody, even a family member, who would risk driving without looking forward. I would not use a term as polite as idiot.
     

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