NHTSA Finds Tesla Accident Rate Drops 40% After Autosteer Installed!

[EinSV]

In its Autopilot report today, the NHTSA reported that accidents in AP-equipped Tesla's dropped by a remarkable 40% compared to Tesla's without AP.

According to the NHTSA data, AP-equipped Teslas appear to be almost twice as safe as Teslas w/o AP. And this likely understates the safety benefits of AP, since AP is only in use part of the time.

NHTSA’s full final investigation into Tesla’s Autopilot shows 40% crash rate reduction

The key figure is below. Congrats to Tesla and the Autopilot team -- pretty amazing result for Autopilot's first year.

 

[Andyw2100]

In its Autopilot report today, the NHTSA reported that accidents in AP-equipped Tesla's dropped by a remarkable 40% compared to Tesla's without AP.

Nice find.

This should silence a lot of Tesla's critics.

 

[somnambule]

As a bit of context, the data above (that shows a 40% reduction) is for crashes with airbag deployment, according to the NHTSA report. So this isn't some meaningless reduction in fender-benders etc. It's big reduction in serious crashes that is very meaningful.

 

[McRat]

AEB has shown to be a valuable technology. It will probably be mandated.

https://cdn1.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/5970439/FCP_SR_012816.0.pdf

 

[EinSV]

AEB has shown to be a valuable technology. It will probably be mandated.

https://cdn1.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/5970439/FCP_SR_012816.0.pdf

This report has nothing to do with AEB. The 40% reduction in accidents is comparing Teslas with Autosteer to those without it.

 

[Andyw2100]

This report has nothing to do with AEB. The 40% reduction in accidents is comparing Teslas with Autosteer to those without it.

That's an over-simplification though, isn't it? The majority (I'm guessing--I don't know the actual numbers) of Teslas that have Autosteer also have AEB, and similarly the majority (guessing again) of Teslas that don't have Autosteer also don't have AEB.

 

[apacheguy]

I don't see how this can be attributed specifically to autosteer. More likely the safety features (which are enabled by default without paying for AP upgrade) are causing the majority of decline in accidents.

 

[somnambule]

That's an over-simplification though, isn't it? The majority (I'm guessing--I don't know the actual numbers) of Teslas that have Autosteer also have AEB, and similarly the majority (guessing again) of Teslas that don't have Autosteer also don't have AEB.

Right, the way I understand it, the comparison is of vehicles without AP to vehicles with AP. It doesn't take into account what fraction of time AP is on or not, and what aspects of AP is contributing to the difference. It's even entirely possible that more careful drivers started buying Teslas in 2015 or something (although unlikely).

In some ways, it's a very simple metric and doesn't give you detailed insights. On the other hand, that simplicity is what makes it hard to argue with in terms of the value of AP. There's isn't much to it -- introduce AP and accidents go down.

 

[Joer293]

The report doesn't go into detail, but it's likely a 40% accident severity reduction and some % accident avoidance. AEB (automatic emergency braking) is just one safety improvement available in AP HW 1 vehicles. DBS (Dynamic brake support) and CIB (Crash imminent braking) are likely the key difference between air bag deployed, and fender bender in many new car brands. Not just Tesla. pre-AP vehicles also did not include blindspot warnings.

 

[EinSV]

Right, the way I understand it, the comparison is of vehicles without AP to vehicles with AP. It doesn't take into account what fraction of time AP is on or not, and what aspects of AP is contributing to the difference. It's even entirely possible that more careful drivers started buying Teslas in 2015 or something (although unlikely).

In some ways, it's a very simple metric and doesn't give you detailed insights. On the other hand, that simplicity is what makes it hard to argue with in terms of the value of AP. There's isn't much to it -- introduce AP and accidents go down.

I agree. As I understand the report, it includes all 2014-2016 Teslas and compares rates of accidents where airbags deployed for vehicles with Autosteer enabled and those without it enabled, even if they have AP hardware. I assume NHTSA did their homework and if the difference reported was attributable to AEB, which as I understand it is active even without Autosteer enabled, they would have noted that in the report.

 

[ggr]

Footnotes to the actual report:

21 Approximately one-third of the subject vehicles accumulated mileage prior to Autopilot installation.
22
The crash rates are for all miles travelled before and after Autopilot installation and are not limited to actualAutopilot use

In other words, they are comparing the crash rates in the same vehicle pool before and after autopilot (more particularly Auto Steering) was enabled, and ignoring whether it was in use or not at the time. This is extremely impressive.

 

[ChadFeldheimer]

In other words, they are comparing the crash rates in the same vehicle pool before and after autopilot (more particularly Auto Steering) was enabled, and ignoring whether it was in use or not at the time. This is extremely impressive.

So the non-autopilot pool is biased towards drivers that have had less experience with the car. No doubt less experienced drivers would be less familiar with the driving dynamics of the car - and perhaps more prone to accidents. I wonder what the accident/airbag deployment rate looks like when plotted by year of ownership.

 

[MP3Mike]

It sure doesn't say much about the driving quality of Tesla buyers.

 

[DriverOne]

I wonder how lives and injuries a 40% drop equates to.

 

[McRat]

It sure doesn't say much about the driving quality of Tesla buyers.

The traffic fatality rate is now climbing since leveling out in 2013, but today has the safest cars in history on the road. No attempts to resolve any real issues, just crash survival rates is no longer working.

We have to remove the drivers. They cannot learn the skills necessary anymore. If you make something idiot-proof, all it does is make superior idiots that will defeat the idiot-proof safeguards.

It's sad. I have always enjoyed driving and I think webphones suck. But I will have to give up driving so folks can safely Twitter 24/7/365. It's 2017 folks, you can buy cars with phones in them already for decades. Even cheap cars.

 

[jbcarioca]

... But I will have to give up driving so folks can safely Twitter 24/7/365. It's 2017 folks, you can buy cars with phones in them already for decades. Even cheap cars.

The statistics on crashes while texting are pretty confirming of your view, especially as texting while driving is increasing. I have not seen definitive statistics comparing accident rates by use of smartphones or other mobile devices lately. The IIHS even states taht the definitive statistics are not currently available.
Q&As
Despite that the statements of accident cause from several Brazilian States by DETRAN (State Departments of Transportation) were so devastating that use of phones while driving is now illegal in Brazil, as it is in many countries.

It seems to me there is no need for much statistical evaluation on this one. Distractions, whatever the cause, increase accident risk. The famous idiot Tesla driver in Florida would still be alive if he'd not been watching a movie.

Mark Rosekind, the NHTSA Administrator, has spent his career studying fatigue and distraction in Transportation.
NHTSA Administrator Mark R. Rosekind
I may be biased because I have met him and talked with him about such issues. It is not coincidence that he and other in NTSB and NHTSA are strong advocates of developing automated driving aids and autonomous systems.
As an enthusiastic driver myself I'm less enthused. Frankly, as an aircraft pilot I prefer to hand fly. The is exactly zero question that machines make fewer errors than do people. The 'secret sauce' is in reducing the error rate and improving reliability.
So, in the age of Twitter for idiot Geezers we might as well accept it. Automation's safer.

Maybe McRat and I can drive together without automation on a private course somewhere?

 

[swaltner]

Footnotes to the actual report:


In other words, they are comparing the crash rates in the same vehicle pool before and after autopilot (more particularly Auto Steering) was enabled, and ignoring whether it was in use or not at the time. This is extremely impressive.

This is correct. Reading the actual report, (GASP, right????) this is the text associated with the figure showing the 40% drop. It's only a 12 page report and is pretty interesting actually.

5.4 Crash rates
. ODI analyzed mileage and airbag deployment data supplied by Tesla for all MY 2014 through 2016 Model S and 2016 Model X vehicles equipped with the Autopilot Technology Package, either installed in the vehicle when sold or through an OTA update, to calculate crash rates by miles travelled prior 21 to and after Autopilot installation. 22

Figure 11 shows the rates calculated by ODI for airbag deployment crashes in the subject Tesla vehicles before and after Autosteer installation. The data show that the Tesla vehicles crash rate dropped by almost 40 percent after Autosteer installation.

---
21 Approximately one-third of the subject vehicles accumulated mileage prior to Autopilot installation.
22 The crash rates are for all miles travelled before and after Autopilot installation and are not limited to actual Autopilot use.

 

[McRat]

...

Maybe McRat and I can drive together without automation on a private course somewhere?

I try to stay sharp by running AutoX events (baby roadrace <65mph) for car control, and attend driving schools still. I took my youngest to his first AutoX last Sunday. Hopefully he will join me for the season. He did well for his first time out.

I enjoy driving, always have. But I keep the hotrodding on closed courses.

Full on roadracing has been paused by family decision until the kids are both in college. 2 more years.

The only time I use the car phone is emergencies. Most months I never use it once.

 

[Andyw2100]

The famous idiot Tesla driver in Florida would still be alive if he'd not been watching a movie.

The man was a retired Navy seal. It's possible, though not proven, that he made a mistake that day. Assuming he did, that mistake cost him his life. I don't think he deserves to be spoken about, after death, using the language you used.

 

[McRat]

The man was a retired Navy seal. It's possible, though not proven, that he made a mistake that day. Assuming he did, that mistake cost him his life. I don't think he deserves to be spoken about, after death, using the language you used.

If it was not a truck, but a school bus, and 10 kids died would anything change? If not, what if the kids were family members?

I have total contempt for anybody, even a family member, who would risk driving without looking forward. I would not use a term as polite as idiot.