Heresy alert.... ok you've been alerted.
If I had to place a bet on the outcome of the NHTSA inquiry, it will be a recall, in the form of either:
a) NHTSA orders Tesla to strengthen the battery pack; or,
b) Behind the scenes, Tesla cuts a deal with NHTSA in which Tesla announces it is voluntarily strengthening the battery pack.
Either way, all Model S's sold to date get recall for this battery pack strengthening and the stock plummets on the news. Cost to Tesla for the recall: $100 million or more.
I will be delighted if NHTSA gives Tesla a clean bill of health, but I am expecting a or b above, and a corresponding bloodbath in the stock market for TSLA shares.
And again I don't think we'll know for sure until Feb at the earliest.
I hope I'm completely wrong.