Niche Luxury Car Maker According to Barclays

[Brovane]

NIO ES8 has a range of 311 miles and a battery swap option.

That 311 miles is a NEDC test cycle, the EPA test cycle range would be 218 miles.

Make sure when you are discussing range that you are not comparing ranges between two different test cycles.

Here's How To Calculate Conflicting EV Range Test Cycles: EPA, WLTP, NEDC

 

[Singuy]

works. You pull isolated facts and try to support your conclusions. In particular, quoting Musk from six years ago is not terribly relevant.

I don't see how you can't understand that at this point in the life of Tesla, they need to make annual profits on a regular basis.

Yes, and they are on the cusp of doing this. 2017, Tesla profit was -2 billion. 2018, Tesla profit is -1 billion. 2019..they might break even depending on the rest of the year (and looks to be on track).

That looks like a maturing company to me utilizing ONLY 1/3 of their products and only ONE product that is for the masses.

Other money makers include Semi, Solar Roof, and 800lb gorilla that's the Model Y. So all this crying about "how dare they lose money!..What a *sugar* company" is a ridiculous premise when you see their YOY revenue growth is over 50% while operational cost stays roughly flat.

 

[Singuy]

No one thinks the thought that Tesla is out of the deep wood antagonize people. It antagonizes people when it's blown out of proportions. Even Elon recognizes that just because Tesla have succeeded in getting over the hardest make or break hump, it doesn't mean there are no humps in the future hence the capital raise and constant cost savings he is advocating in preparation for more humps ahead.

We are in the camp who believes future humps will not be anywhere near as difficult as the first hump. It has been proven that Tesla CAN mass produce EVs(a statement in which only BYU can share while no other major Legacy manufacture are able to do). So the next step is to mass produce more than one model...mass produce batteries on a gigantic scale, and mass produce solar roofs on a massive scale.

 

[Singuy]

Sorry, what does BYU mean? Google won't show me anything not related to a university even after excluding Brigham.

Sorry I mean BYD.

 

[Singuy]

Which means what?

Another company that can mass produce EVs.

 

[EVNow]

So when GM rolls out their 20 models by 2023

They have been talking about it for so long - they make Musk seem like a realist in terms of timeline.

BTW, they all talk about "electrified" cars, which includes even mild hybrids.

 

[Brovane]

Wasn't trying to compare ranges in any perfect sense. Just pointing out the Nio cars have long ranges compared to what I assume was meant like the Leaf, et. al.

Are you saying the comparable range of the Nio is under 200 miles?

I clearly stated what would probably be the EPR range of the NIOES8

The main competitor of NIO is Tesla not Nissan.

Compared to Tesla, the NIO cars are getting significantly less range on higher capacity batteries. Stating they have 310 miles of range without referencing the test cycle, makes it seem like NIO is closer technologically than they actually are to their main competitor.

 

[Tam]

NIO ES8 has a range of 311 miles and a battery swap option.

That's a good thing!

However, to correct on the range:

Nio ES8: An Electric SUV from NextEV | News | Car and Driver

"Nio boasts that the ES8 can travel 310 miles, but that’s at a constant 37 mph."

That's also a great speed for 2019 Audi A8 Level 3 Traffic Jam Pilot maxed at 37 MPH!

But that speed is not practical in USA highways.

Nio ES8 is priced at ￥456,000 ($66,076.13)

Tesla Model 3 is priced at ￥328,000 yuan ($47,502.21)

As mentioned above, there are billions of Chinese so there are not enough EV companies for a foreseeable.

We need more!

 

[30seconds]

"So when GM rolls out their 20 models by 2023"

Holy *sugar*, that's the funniest thing I've read on the internet in at least a month.

Seriously, you should give up your day job and hit the comedy circuit.

 

[Singuy]

I don't really follow your thinking. People have been buying cars from the big iron companies for many decades. The Japanese showed us all how to make reliable cars and now literally every significant car company in the world makes similar products that they sell the same way to the same people. Clearly there is no problem with the greater auto industry in being able to sell cars to the masses. They didn't sell electric cars because they are much more conservative than a silicon valley start up company and typically would stick their toe in the water first. Tesla did what they said they were going to do, spur the advancement of EVs.

Now every major car company is pushing ahead to produce EVs. These companies are well capitalized, have good engineering and most importantly know exactly how to sell cars to the public. That is why they will have many models and market them through advertising and display them in their showrooms. They will sell to the other 99%. If Tesla wants to be able to compete in 100% of the market space, they will need to do a lot that they just aren't capable of doing. Having service centers 200 miles apart won't cut it. Having crowding at their chargers won't cut it. Continually cutting back on service and support won't cut it.

To compare this to selling cell phones is rather disingenuous. Cell phones are inexpensive items that are all about the tech and the glitter. The glitter and tech in autos may attract people to showrooms, but in reality they want transportation. The big iron companies know how to deliver that. Apple virtually invented the smart phone. They didn't start out with a tiny share of the market with enormous barriers to ramping up production. As I put this down in writing, I realize I've been fooling myself into thinking Tesla has much chance to make it in the long haul. They will never have dealers or repair centers in small cities or towns. They will likely never complete the network of superchargers enough to eliminate the crowding and long lines in key areas. They will never have enough models to effectively compete with the big iron. There is a reason why there have been no successful automotive startups in how many decades.

What is not cutting it are the attitude toward electric cars these legacy auto makers have. They are only talking about going full EV to satisfy shareholders, regulators, and prevent people from jumping into what is available today. In reality not one manufacture have any solid plans to do so. Where are the charging infrastructure? Where are they going to source their batteries? What are they doing about software? What are their plans for ICE part distributers?

Tesla is the only company that is doing ev right with the fasted pace of innovation. The other manufactures are trying to half ass their way into the EV space because it's an expensive endeavor while already working on razor thin margins in their entire portfolio stack. This is why in 2019 there are no cars that can beat a Tesla from 2012. Just a lot of fake promises.

 

[Tam]

...Building the network doesn't really take so much time if you have the money which companies like Volkswagen and GM do...

That's the problem. They have the money but they refuse to pour money into EV design/infrastructure to demonstrate that their EV can go coast to coast with a decent time.

It's just like saying I can run a marathon any time I want to. I got all the calories and energy to do so.

It's easy to brag so why not doing it!

Money is one thing but they also need to have the will power to invest the money for EV.

So far, their only will power is the bragging power!

 

[Singuy]

I'm glad you mentioned the charging network. I have always said that is Tesla's big advantage for at least 2 years and maybe 4. I expect you are aware of Electrify America which is building a network with a significant number of charging locations? They already have some number of stations and are building many more. GM recently announced they will be partnering with Bechtel to build a significant charging network. Building the network doesn't really take so much time if you have the money which companies like Volkswagen and GM do. GM has invited others to partner and add to the plan.

I seem to recall someone saying GM gets their batteries from a Korean company, but I'm not sure. Or that might be the supplier of the motors in the Bolt. Perhaps you don't recall they have been making a hybrid for years, the Volt. It's not like GM is sitting on their hands. As I've said, conservative companies like GM don't jump in with both feet like a startup with nothing to lose. Also, GM is right in there with autonomous driving software. I forget the Asian company they are partnering with, but of all the other companies, GM is supposed to be the most advanced.

I have no idea what you are referring to about the ICE distributors. If you mean the dealers, why wouldn't they sell the electric cars?




No one promised anything. Now GM is saying they will have a full lineup of models by 2023. Volkswagen is bringing out EVs, many other companies have announced products due out in a very few years. No fake. They just didn't jump in with both feet like a startup with nothing to lose. It is not unlike WWII where America was the giant having been awaken.

I'm glad you mentioned the charging network. I have always said that is Tesla's big advantage for at least 2 years and maybe 4. I expect you are aware of Electrify America which is building a network with a significant number of charging locations? They already have some number of stations and are building many more. GM recently announced they will be partnering with Bechtel to build a significant charging network. Building the network doesn't really take so much time if you have the money which companies like Volkswagen and GM do. GM has invited others to partner and add to the plan.

I seem to recall someone saying GM gets their batteries from a Korean company, but I'm not sure. Or that might be the supplier of the motors in the Bolt. Perhaps you don't recall they have been making a hybrid for years, the Volt. It's not like GM is sitting on their hands. As I've said, conservative companies like GM don't jump in with both feet like a startup with nothing to lose. Also, GM is right in there with autonomous driving software. I forget the Asian company they are partnering with, but of all the other companies, GM is supposed to be the most advanced.

I have no idea what you are referring to about the ICE distributors. If you mean the dealers, why wouldn't they sell the electric cars?




No one promised anything. Now GM is saying they will have a full lineup of models by 2023. Volkswagen is bringing out EVs, many other companies have announced products due out in a very few years. No fake. They just didn't jump in with both feet like a startup with nothing to lose. It is not unlike WWII where America was the giant having been awaken.

What do you mean no fakes? Look at the Hyundai ev, not sold pretty much everywhere except a few states. The bolt is pretty much a spark converted. I like how they took Ev seriously by converting their ugliest and least desirable car model.

And what about electrify America? Who knows about it? Is it fast? Does the general public even know they exist? What are companies doing about software? Tesla is partnering with Netflix and most likely will start monitizing apps via movies and games..are ev companies doing this because not everyone wants to get coffee while charging.

Like I said, Tesla is doing this correctly and other companies are lackluster and it shows.


I mean about parts oem are the partnership and reliance other car companies have since they have little vertical integration. Will they lose bargining power once they convert to ev? Where are they going to outsource EV parts and battery packs?

Tesla has the highest engagements ever known. Their software updates and a quirky CEO keep our cars interesting. Not a lot of people beside die hard fanatics engage with their cars as much as a Tesla owner which will keep us in this ecosystem. Why do I even have hundreds of posts on this forum? Why do you? All of this adds up to brand loyalty.

 

[Tam]

...Electrify America...

Did you see how Electrify America do it?

This picture is from their website and I just couldn't believe it!

One charging spot has 2 identical charge points!

There's no accident there! Here's another picture from CSP Daily News:

They are just so rich! They just have so much money so each parking spot has 2 identical charging points!!!!

The cables are too short to go to the other side, and if it could, the other side is a drive way, not a parking space.

So what are they thinking? How to get 2 charging points to 2 cars in one single parking spot? You mean they mean like this below?

Ahhhhh! They must think that's how it works in EV. Stack the cars up and you can use 2 charging points in 1 same parking space simultaneously!

 

[CalX]

Yes, Tesla did many things right. But they simply are too small and can't grow fast enough. Investors are finally starting to realize this which is why the stock is down by a third.




Big iron bargaining power comes from volume. You can ask GM where they get their EV equipment. Ask the other companies who are building EVs, Nissan, Audi, Jaguar and the Chinese brands.




That is my point. The early adopters of EVs are buying mostly out of enthusiasm for the technology and the Tesla brand. Brand loyalty means you buy a second Tesla in some years down the road. Right now they need new sales which has nothing to do with brand loyalty. Tesla has always had a bit of a circus flavor to it, cotton candy. The other 99% aren't looking for cotton candy. They want steak and potatoes. The big iron companies know how to sell steak and potatoes.

For a niche car maker compared to the big iron, Tesla seems to be doing pretty well. With the 100s of competitors from new and legacy automakers, why aren't others in the lead with their dealerships and mass marketing experience?

On top of this, they only just started opening up orders for Model 3s in large parts of the world and are quickly moving forward with getting production out of gigafactory 3 by the end of the year which will significantly increase production.

 

[EVMeister]

Was gnuarm2 as misguided as the first and third one? You're talking about meeting schedules and criticising Tesla for missing them. Yet seem oblivious to the fact the major auto manufacturers have failed repeatedly to bring a compelling alternative to the market. The same guys who have CEOs charged and facing jail for lying and cheating. Yet you're suggesting they will somehow leapfrog Tesla? You're not making any convincing arguments here and ignoring the past and present whilst painting your own tainted picture of the future.

I don't think it helps that you seem to live in an area surrounded by backwards-looking or older folk. They're not the future vehicle drivers or owners who Tesla would need to appeal to. The brand really resonates with many younger folk in ways that the "old brands" don't. I don't doubt the others will eventually get some compelling Tesla alternatives on the road, but I do doubt that would be harmful to Tesla.

 

[Brovane]

Ok, so 218 miles is still comparable to any of the Tesla models with a base battery. I can't rely on a model X P100D to get 218 miles on any real trip.

The NIOES8 with the NEDC range of 311 miles has a 84kwh battery pack. This equals about 218 miles of EPA Ranges, or about 2.6 mile/kwh for EPA range. The NIOES8

Tesla Model X Long range has 325 of EPA range which equals about 3.25 mile/kwh for EPA range. The Model X is about 25% more efficient than the NIOES8.

What were you doing with a Model X P100D that you only got 2.18 mile/kwh? Where you towing something?

 

[Singuy]

The bolt is a pretty good design. I don't know about it on trips because there is not an adequate network up as yet for many of the owners to do a lot of cross country traveling. You can talk about cars being "ugly", but lots of people think Teslas are ugly. The model 3 certainly is unusual.




Yes, Electrify America is fast DC charging and is installing 300+ kW units. I have no idea how Netflix matters to any of this. No one is going to buy a car because you can pay to watch Netflix while charging.




Yes, Tesla did many things right. But they simply are too small and can't grow fast enough. Investors are finally starting to realize this which is why the stock is down by a third.




Big iron bargaining power comes from volume. You can ask GM where they get their EV equipment. Ask the other companies who are building EVs, Nissan, Audi, Jaguar and the Chinese brands.




That is my point. The early adopters of EVs are buying mostly out of enthusiasm for the technology and the Tesla brand. Brand loyalty means you buy a second Tesla in some years down the road. Right now they need new sales which has nothing to do with brand loyalty. Tesla has always had a bit of a circus flavor to it, cotton candy. The other 99% aren't looking for cotton candy. They want steak and potatoes. The big iron companies know how to sell steak and potatoes.

Tesla took over 51% of all ev sales. You want me to ask where Jaguar gets their ev equipment when they sell like 10/day? I can make Jaguar ev equipments out of my garage at that kind of volume.

If people want an EV, they will cross shop and compare to the best. Tesla objectively makes the best. It's the only company with cars on the road hitting almost half a million miles. Only company with enough data to ease people's concern about battery degredation. So all this competition has a long ways to go before they can prove they are competent enough to make a quality ev. The leaf gas failed with their poor battery management and the rest has failed to show efficiency.

So if I want an EV, Tesla is on the top of my list and the standard I should compare to. I don't understand what you mean by "legacy companies know how to sell steak". Where are they at? I am looking at 2020-2021 and sees nothing but a bunch of compromises.

 

[hcdavis3]

Barclays is a niche bank.

 

[Brovane]

How did you calculate 2.18 mile/kwh?

You said the following.

" I can't rely on a model X P100D to get 218 miles on any real trip."

Which indicates to me that you cannot depend on the X P100D to get at least 218 miles from a 100 Kwh battery. The language you used also indicates some type of personal experience with using the X P100D on a real trip.

If you divide 218 miles by 100 kwh = 2.18 mile/kwh.

What were you doing with a Model X P100D that you only got 2.18 mile/kwh? Where you towing something?

 

[⚡️ELECTROMAN⚡️]

Yes, Tesla did many things right. But they simply are too small and can't grow fast enough. Investors are finally starting to realize this which is why the stock is down by a third.

Tesla is doubling sales year over year. That’s why they are struggling with manufacturing, service and delivery logistics. If anything they are growing too fast. No other auto manufacturers are dealing with this kind of growth. It’s not fair to compare. Tesla is kicking ass.