Niche Luxury Car Maker According to Barclays

[Richt]

I don't really follow your thinking. People have been buying cars from the big iron companies for many decades. The Japanese showed us all how to make reliable cars and now literally every significant car company in the world makes similar products that they sell the same way to the same people. Clearly there is no problem with the greater auto industry in being able to sell cars to the masses. They didn't sell electric cars because they are much more conservative than a silicon valley start up company and typically would stick their toe in the water first. Tesla did what they said they were going to do, spur the advancement of EVs.

Now every major car company is pushing ahead to produce EVs. These companies are well capitalized, have good engineering and most importantly know exactly how to sell cars to the public. That is why they will have many models and market them through advertising and display them in their showrooms. They will sell to the other 99%. If Tesla wants to be able to compete in 100% of the market space, they will need to do a lot that they just aren't capable of doing. Having service centers 200 miles apart won't cut it. Having crowding at their chargers won't cut it. Continually cutting back on service and support won't cut it.

To compare this to selling cell phones is rather disingenuous. Cell phones are inexpensive items that are all about the tech and the glitter. The glitter and tech in autos may attract people to showrooms, but in reality they want transportation. The big iron companies know how to deliver that. Apple virtually invented the smart phone. They didn't start out with a tiny share of the market with enormous barriers to ramping up production. As I put this down in writing, I realize I've been fooling myself into thinking Tesla has much chance to make it in the long haul. They will never have dealers or repair centers in small cities or towns. They will likely never complete the network of superchargers enough to eliminate the crowding and long lines in key areas. They will never have enough models to effectively compete with the big iron. There is a reason why there have been no successful automotive startups in how many decades.

Uh actually Apple started out in exactly that position in 2007. Nokia and Motorola and even Blackberry has massive scale advantages. The first iPhone sold 1.6M units. And it has just barely recovered from death and was a niche pc maker with a music player business. Apple iPhone sales by year 2007-2018 | Statista

Total market was 1B IDC Finds Slower Growth in the Mobile Phone Market in 2007 While Samsung Captures the Number Two Position For the Year

And I remember many folks thought they could never make a profit. It’s also interesting that their main value was just software and a different kind of people. Doesn’t say that it’s the same as Tesla but interesting.

Also FYI the sane could be said for Amazon. Minimal profits in exchange for much growth. And most folks forget the stock price collapsed for nearly a decade from 2000 to 09. Or the decades it took to exceed Walmart. And at its heart it’s only advantage is software and a different kind of people. Amazon’s epic 20-year run as a public company, explained in five charts

Now Tesla isn’t in the same situation. And no one can predict the future. But it dies say that looking at free operating cash flow is super important. It tells you the reinvestment capability. Also for big companies you have to do the same. What is there true free cash. For them you have to subtract from operating cash flow their dividend payouts and their cash needed to fund existing operations because they can’t stop their current business. Again, Tesla is definitely way different but interesting to take GM for instance and look at “available free cash = operating cash - dividends - existing business needs”

 

[Brovane]

Your math is faulty because you made faulty assumptions. No one in their right mind would plan a trip to end with zero charge. It's also rare to start with 100% and a bad idea with superchargers

You are the one that asserted that you cannot depend on a Model X P100D to cover 218 miles on any real trip.
I simply asked for more details and you keep dodging answering the question.

Why when you are shown to be in-correct do you just keep jumping to another argument?

 

[S'toon]

You are the one that asserted that you cannot depend on a Model X P100D to cover 218 miles on any real trip.
I simply asked for more details and you keep dodging answering the question.

Why when you are shown to be in-correct do you just keep jumping to another argument?

It's the same tactic seen by climate change deniers in the climate change threads.

 

[S'toon]

Confessions Of A Twitter $TSLAQ Troll | CleanTechnica

 

[xfea]

There's a divergence in understanding here.

To me, Tesla would die if it runs out of cash.

But for the past 16 years, Tesla had many times that it was at the brink of running out of cash but cash infusion has always been replenished at crucial times.

Cash infusion has happened in the past, it has happened just now, and I will expect it to happen in a foreseeable future.

In summary, no: Tesla does not have to make profit in order to thrive.



No they don't! They just evangelize negative falsehoods despite of positive facts.

Such as: There are so many Model 3 on the parking lot. That is terrible! That means the demand has dried up!

It might interesting to listen to Q1-2018 call:

They kept pressuring Elon Musk to raise funding and wouldn't take no for an answer. They integrated him until he said:

"Boring! Bonehead questions are not cool!...These questions are so dry. They're killing me..."



Is it about running out of cash in 10 months? That's internal communications, not public materials.

10 months is a long time to run out of cash for a growth company like Tesla by the way!



Stock goes up and stock goes down.

People who enjoy roller coaster has no problem with that, otherwise, please just find somewhere flat.



Traditionally, company needs to produce profits to prove it is worth of its value.

But nowadays, many investors prefer to see growth as the value and are willing to skip over profits.

You DO realize that TESLA is junk rated debt - right?

 

[Tam]

You DO realize that TESLA is junk rated debt - right?

There's a big market for junk-rated debt so, on the positive side, the demand is there.

As long as someone is willing to lend money to Tesla even if it's junk-rated, Tesla will survive.

 

[ggr]

You DO realize that TESLA is junk rated debt - right?

Yes, that explains why every debt issue is oversubscribed with big sales to people like MS, GS, Fidelity...

 

[anthonyj]

You DO realize that TESLA is junk rated debt - right?

Doritos are junk rated food but they are still tasty

 

[N5329K]

By the numbers, EV's are a niche market. Even if Tesla totally dominates it (and dominates some other categories usually filled with ICE vehicles, too). There should be an inflection point coming (the base of that "hockey stick") but it has not yet arrived. So sure. Tesla is a dominant player in a niche market segment. Mr. Edison's light bulbs were a niche product once, too.
Robin

 

[CalX]

By the numbers, EV's are a niche market. Even if Tesla totally dominates it (and dominates some other categories usually filled with ICE vehicles, too). There should be an inflection point coming (the base of that "hockey stick") but it has not yet arrived. So sure. Tesla is a dominant player in a niche market segment. Mr. Edison's light bulbs were a niche product once, too.
Robin
View attachment 420923

Global EV plug in sales are at 2% market share now in 4/2019 and 1.6% in the US.

 

[Tam]

It's hard to convince critics but what kind of niche car maker that has just made the most quarterly sales record since its inception?

95,200 deliveries for Q2-2019!