Johan
Ex got M3 in the divorce, waiting for EU Model Y!
Looked some more at their specs; they're claiming "100-200 miles" on a full charge "depending on load". Taken at face value, with a 320 kWh usable pack it comes to 3200 to 1600 Wh/mile. Ouch.
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Nikola Motors Semi Trucks
- Thread starter heysteveh
- Start date
SageBrush
REJECT Fascism
Tangential, but interesting: the 'SuperTruck' initiative
Doubling of fuel economy. I did not see details of how the improvement was accomplished but the photo shows a lot of aero improvements
Doubling of fuel economy. I did not see details of how the improvement was accomplished but the photo shows a lot of aero improvements
Johan
Ex got M3 in the divorce, waiting for EU Model Y!
... So updating my napkin mat up-thread with a 2400 Wh/mile figure instead of 1000 Wh/mile leaves us with a CNG tank containing 430 kgs of compressed natural gas. That's not too bad mass wise, on a big trailer. How much volume does such a tank require? Online sources say it's common to compress natural gas to 128 kg per 1 cubic metre, which would mean 430 kgs needs a roughly 3,4 cubic meters tank, or 120 cubic foot. Not that huge and probably doable in the real world?
That is 3400 Liters or 897 US Gallons. A typical semi truck has two 150 gallon tanks, so roughly 3X the space taken up by fuel storage.
Ciaopec
Active Member
Apparently not: https://nikolamotor.com/pdfs/Nikola_Pre-Sale_June13_FINAL.pdf
And, being built in a state that won't allow Tesla Sales!
Wow, this is interesting. Electrek is reporting that the platform has changed from natural gas to hydrogen fuel cell. And that the hydrogen will be produced from solar farms not gas. Others have speculated that fuel cells might only make sense for long haul trucking. And if they can actually pull this off, generating all the hydrogen from solar farms, more power to them. Should be interesting:
Nikola Motor does a 180°, scraps plans for battery-powered truck, turns to hydrogen
Nikola Motor does a 180°, scraps plans for battery-powered truck, turns to hydrogen
NikeWings
Active Member
Product viability aside, Tesla got the better end of the namesake, for sure.
This sounds like a cough drop on wheels.
This sounds like a cough drop on wheels.
BluestarE3
Active Member
Maybe they should change the company name from Nikola to Hindenburg?
From the Nikola press release, quote: "Nikola will produce hydrogen via zero emission solar farms built by Nikola Motor Company. These solar farms will produce over 100 megawatts each and will use electrolysis to create hydrogen from water."
I do not see how the economics of that will work, or just the physics. Build very expensive solar farms which are exclusively devoted to powering electrolysis to produce hydrogen gas which will then be transported to multiple very expensive hydrogen fueling stations (which Nikola will also have to build) to refuel their very expensive fuel cell powered trucks.
An extremely expensive and inefficient way to produce and use energy. Seems to me that the Tesla Semi approach makes a lot more sense: leverage existing battery and EV drivetrain technology and expertise to drive down costs so that batteries become cheap enough and recharge fast enough to be used in big trucks. Tesla Energy might even build dedicated solar farms along long haul trucking routes to provide the energy for their trucks. That would be far more efficient from a pure physics point of view than what Nikola says they will do, and it will be much less expensive as well.
You can generate hydrogen 'on the spot', you just need a lot of power that can be generated by some solar-farm.
Of course you need to pay the grid for this 'feature' but of course it's better whan move the hidrogen via semi-truck on the road.
Said that, i think it's a very bad idea what they want to do
Of course you need to pay the grid for this 'feature' but of course it's better whan move the hidrogen via semi-truck on the road.
Said that, i think it's a very bad idea what they want to do
How are they going to make hydrogen in places where solar isn't practical? Hydrogen containers leak because the molecule is so small. Any transport will lose x amount of hydrogen per mile no matter what you do, whether that's semis with giant hydrogen trailers or a pipe line. Hydrogen will also leak from any storage solution.
Hydrogen fuel cells do have the advantage over batteries that they can be recharged as fast as an ICE gas tank as opposed to having to sit a while while batteries recharge. But that's the only advantage over batteries.
I think it will likely be a while until long haul trucks convert to batteries. The problem of how to keep them moving economically is a tough one. I think the low hanging fruit for EV trucks is as delivery vehicles. If the truck normally sits for hours anyway, they can charge during that time. Delivery trucks are also the types of commercial trucks most often encountered by the public because they are on the streets of cities and towns were people live. Switching those over to electric will go a long ways towards cleaning city air and helping human health overall.
I agree that Nikola trucks seem to be headed down a dead end and the company may never happen.
Hydrogen fuel cells do have the advantage over batteries that they can be recharged as fast as an ICE gas tank as opposed to having to sit a while while batteries recharge. But that's the only advantage over batteries.
I think it will likely be a while until long haul trucks convert to batteries. The problem of how to keep them moving economically is a tough one. I think the low hanging fruit for EV trucks is as delivery vehicles. If the truck normally sits for hours anyway, they can charge during that time. Delivery trucks are also the types of commercial trucks most often encountered by the public because they are on the streets of cities and towns were people live. Switching those over to electric will go a long ways towards cleaning city air and helping human health overall.
I agree that Nikola trucks seem to be headed down a dead end and the company may never happen.
You use a turbine for its power to weight ratio (important in aircraft applications). For a vehicle, the economics don't work, both due to initial cost (metals that can take the high temps are extremely expensive), and also operating cost (less thermodynamic efficiency than a piston engine). See writeup on Chrysler's turbine car here.
Gas turbines are used for power generation in large electricity plants, but (a) those are huge and stationary, and are expected to last many years, and (b) their large size can improve efficiency.
In short, to build a hybrid vehicle based on a gas turbine (especially for commercial applications where the point is to turn a profit when shipping goods), seems economically an extreme stretch.
Gas turbines are used for power generation in large electricity plants, but (a) those are huge and stationary, and are expected to last many years, and (b) their large size can improve efficiency.
In short, to build a hybrid vehicle based on a gas turbine (especially for commercial applications where the point is to turn a profit when shipping goods), seems economically an extreme stretch.
I at least thought that it was possible for this vehicle to be viable on CNG/LNG. Now that they're pushing H2, it's all over in my mind. Not going to happen. I would be more optimistic about them using the solar field to make carbon neutral CNG from atmospheric CO2 and water.
Modern engineering can make a turbine a perfectly good and safe range extender generator. The reason that old Chrysler vehicle didn't work is that it was geared directly to the wheels. A much better current reference would be what Wrightspeed is doing with their range extender.
Modern engineering can make a turbine a perfectly good and safe range extender generator. The reason that old Chrysler vehicle didn't work is that it was geared directly to the wheels. A much better current reference would be what Wrightspeed is doing with their range extender.
Just a small tidbit from the press release. They say they have received three billion USD in preorders.
At ~500k USD per truck, that's 6000 reservations. And at 1500 USD per reservation, that means they've received 9 million USD in reservations.
That should be enough to pay for a few press releases. But I doubt it pays for much of anything beyond that. Assuming 10 million USD per hydrogen fueling station (which should be enough to have stations capable of refilling 10 trucks per day, and includes a 4.4 MW solar array per station), they will need 560 million USD for the hydrogen fueling stations, and let's say 400 million USD for the development of the truck. Plus production facilities, service and sales, etc. I'm thinking 2 billion USD is the minimum of what they need.
Also, the hydrogen fueling stations will combined produce around 44.8 tons of hydrogen per day, or about 670,000 miles per day. Assuming 400 miles per day for an average truck, that means the 560 million USD hydrogen fueling network can support 1675 trucks. Or put differently, the cost of the hydrogen fueling network, is 335k USD *per truck*. So, for that 500k USD 7 year lease, they only have around 165k USD for the development and production of the truck.
Now, a 340 kWh battery will likely cost 100k USD, which leaves 65k USD for the rest of the truck. And you would likely need around a 200 kW fuel cell, which will likely cost around 20k USD. That leaves 45k USD. And you need a ~80 kg hydrogen tank, which will cost something like 25k USD, which leaves 20k for the rest of the truck. Plus six 150 hp motors, at say 3000 USD each, leaving 2k USD for the rest of the truck.
Yeah, I find it hard to see the realism.
At ~500k USD per truck, that's 6000 reservations. And at 1500 USD per reservation, that means they've received 9 million USD in reservations.
That should be enough to pay for a few press releases. But I doubt it pays for much of anything beyond that. Assuming 10 million USD per hydrogen fueling station (which should be enough to have stations capable of refilling 10 trucks per day, and includes a 4.4 MW solar array per station), they will need 560 million USD for the hydrogen fueling stations, and let's say 400 million USD for the development of the truck. Plus production facilities, service and sales, etc. I'm thinking 2 billion USD is the minimum of what they need.
Also, the hydrogen fueling stations will combined produce around 44.8 tons of hydrogen per day, or about 670,000 miles per day. Assuming 400 miles per day for an average truck, that means the 560 million USD hydrogen fueling network can support 1675 trucks. Or put differently, the cost of the hydrogen fueling network, is 335k USD *per truck*. So, for that 500k USD 7 year lease, they only have around 165k USD for the development and production of the truck.
Now, a 340 kWh battery will likely cost 100k USD, which leaves 65k USD for the rest of the truck. And you would likely need around a 200 kW fuel cell, which will likely cost around 20k USD. That leaves 45k USD. And you need a ~80 kg hydrogen tank, which will cost something like 25k USD, which leaves 20k for the rest of the truck. Plus six 150 hp motors, at say 3000 USD each, leaving 2k USD for the rest of the truck.
Yeah, I find it hard to see the realism.
BluestarE3
Active Member
I wonder how many of the claimed 7,000 pre-orders will ask for their money back due to this bait-and-switch?
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