Nissan Asks “How Much of a Premium Would You Pay For a 150-Mile EPA-Rated LEAF?”

[rcc]

Car analogies never work... That's a truly TERRIBLE analogy. If the Leaf could be refueled in 5 minutes Nissan would have people queuing out the door and there'd be fast-chargers all over the place. 5-minute refueling is range. Ask small-displacement motorcycle owners.

The problem is that they can't be refueled in 5 minutes, so to get the charge:drive ratio down you have to have more range, and then on top of that capacity ~ range ~ performance ~ charging speed ~ 1/discharge rate, and with the high cost of batteries the incremental cost of performance in a high-range BEV is relatively small, making long-range BEV more appealing to drive.



If that were true, then Nissan has a really expensive inverter and motor.

It's a fine analogy. Because even if the LEAF could be recharged in 5 minutes, most people (in the US anyway) won't buy a car that has to be recharged/refueled every 70 miles. For the rare brave soul who says "yes", then you ask them - "Well, what if it took 20 minutes to recharge?" (or whatever the magic number really is that day)

The recharge time could be 30 seconds and it wouldn't matter. A range of 70 miles means you need to dot the country with chargers and drivers on the highway need to stop every hour. Not going to happen.

 

[ToddRLockwood]

Had a 2 hour long interview, 8 people there, video recorded, asked numerous questions most along the lines of "why did you buy Tesla?". Number one answer, It's Electric. #2 answer: RANGE.

While this doesn't come as a surprise, I suspect that the answer would be different if you asked people this question prior to delivery. In my opinion, buyers are attracted to the Model S because of its looks, and because of the way it drives. Until you've actually lived with one for a while, the "electric" aspect of a Model S is the most anxiety-laden part of it.

Had Tesla Motors never come to pass, and instead, a group of California entrepreneurs had created an innovative car company around a gorgeous gasoline-powered sports sedan that gets 90mpg, has remarkably linear torque delivery, center-of-gravity on the order of a Ford GT, and a fantastic 17-inch touch screen control interface, I think there might be similar enthusiasm for it. As you correctly pointed out, Tesla is selling to the car enthusiast.

 

[roblab]

Car analogies never work...

Please understand these are all my opinions, probably not humble. My apologies if I irritate some people.

I think it does work. The average car person does NOT want to stop and pull in for gas. The EV people have been programmed into thinking that their only solution to a small battery is a quick charge. This is not true. People do not want to pull in and recharge, nor do they want to pull in and refuel. A small gas tank is the analogy to a small battery.

It amazes me that the average EV / Leaf buyer thinks that the EV salvation is a 5 minute recharge. Get real. You still MUST find the charger. It's across town at a store that doesn't have what you want. You go there and the charger is occupied, often by a gas only car. You wait. They are there for their 8 hour day job. You call the cops. ETC. The driver comes out and flips you off. You spend 5 minutes recharging. You go on. What a fun way to spend a few extra minutes.

Fast rechargers all over the place? Who puts them in? Why did Costco quit the charger business with RAV4EV? I think you are wrong.

I don't care how enamored you are with quick charging, the AVERAGE Tesla Model S person does not recharge while driving. It is a pain. I was asked by Nissan about whether I use public chargers. NO. Why should I? What is it with people that think that if we can recharge, or refuel in 5 minutes, that that takes care of the problem. Tesla has taken care of the problem. You don't need public chargers. Guess what. We on average, don't use them. Maybe you do. I don't. I was putting on near 200 miles on my car for this interview and they wanted to know if I would use the Vacaville Supercharger on the way home. Why?? I can get home. Even if I only spent FIVE minutes and got an extra 40 miles, it is not worth cutting off the freeway. I can charge at home during the 20 plus hours I am not driving. Oh, and with solar, mine costs the same as Elon's.

As to cost of batteries, You are the one saying Nissan's batteries are expensive. Maybe they are, today, but the costs are coming down, and they may be willing to cut the cost of the new Leaf in order to get more sales, I don't know. I'm telling you that Nissan says they could give 150 miles of range for $5000 extra. Maybe more. Their profits are their business. Reminds me how so many people were convinced that Prius was being subsidized many thousands: "Toyota can't be making a profit". But they turned out to be the #1 hybrid maker.

 

[ToddRLockwood]

It amazes me that the average EV / Leaf buyer thinks that the EV salvation is a 5 minute recharge.

And this expectation isn't helped by the ridiculous locations people have chosen to install level 2 public chargers. The only locations that make any sense are the ones where you'll be parked for a matter of hours: workplace parking and hotels, for example. Putting one in a highway rest area or at a convenience store makes no sense.

 

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

It's a fine analogy. Because even if the LEAF could be recharged in 5 minutes, most people (in the US anyway) won't buy a car that has to be recharged/refueled every 70 miles. For the rare brave soul who says "yes", then you ask them - "Well, what if it took 20 minutes to recharge?" (or whatever the magic number really is that day)

The recharge time could be 30 seconds and it wouldn't matter. A range of 70 miles means you need to dot the country with chargers and drivers on the highway need to stop every hour. Not going to happen.

They wouldn't just be cars refueled every 70 miles. They'd be BEVs refueled every 70 miles on days when charging at home or at destinations isn't sufficient. In exchange for more stops on longer trips, you'd be getting a car that's smoother, quieter, more responsive, likely with better handling, requires less maintenance, is much cheaper to fuel and can be pre-conditioned in your garage.

Because of ultra-fast charging capability there'd be a business model supporting for-pay charging and, get this, because of the lack of fumes, you could have fully-enclosed or nearly-enclosed filling stations, better to shield people from the weather when plugging in. Oh, and you can plug your car in and leave it to go to the bathroom or buy a coffee or whatever. Or you can plug your car in, and then sit in the car and wait (while gas stations tell you not to open the door while using a gas pump).

People drive faster to save time and all (they think) it costs them is money, but with ultra-fast BEV charging they'd be exchanging much more than just money if they want to buy an ICEV for range.

An analogy to an ICEV with a small fuel tank is inappropriate. BEVs are just too different. The real negatives:
(1) Slow refueling
(2) Short range between refueling
(3) Significantly higher fuel consumption draw in low temperatures causes unpredictable range
All of those diminish with more capacity.

 

[dhanson865]

An analogy to an ICEV with a small fuel tank is inappropriate. BEVs are just too different. The real negatives:
(1) Slow refueling
(2) Short range between refueling
(3) Significantly higher fuel consumption draw in low temperatures causes unpredictable range
All of those diminish with more capacity.

2 applies with a small gas tank,

3 applies to all vehicles gas or electric. People with MFDs or real time gas gauges on the dash notice it more but it still exists.

Put an uneducated driver in a F-150 with only 3 gallons in the tank and send them to the next town over and watch them end up on the side of the road running out of gas before they know what hit them.

I'll agree that slow refueling is a big deal for a Nissan leaf but I've seen plenty of gas vehicles stay at the gas station a long time filling up while I grab my 8 gallons and drive away in my Prius.

Range is something that will make you ignore 1, 2, and 3. But it's also something that people never seem to get enough of.

I bought my Prius because I didn't like having to stop for gas every 300 miles in my Saturn. If I'm getting 60 mpg I'll wait for the 450 to 500 miles to go by before filling up. But I don't drive more than 35 miles a day so I'd easily make it with a 100 mile range gas or electric. I'd put up with less range if it saved me money or allowed me to fuel up at home/work instead of the gas station.

Give me a leaf with a 36kw battery and I'd be plenty happy driving it to work and back. Heck I'd be willing to drive a 2011 leaf with a bar or two missing.

 

[surfingslovak]

And this expectation isn't helped by the ridiculous locations people have chosen to install level 2 public chargers. The only locations that make any sense are the ones where you'll be parked for a matter of hours: workplace parking and hotels, for example. Putting one in a highway rest area or at a convenience store makes no sense.

Yes, please don't forget workplace charging in the general condemnation of public charging. I know Rob said that these are his opinions, and they are not so humble, but they are just that, his personal opinions. I think it's misguided when someone takes their use case, and tries to generalize it to everybody. That's a pretty arrogant thing to do IMHO. Plugins are a great choice for commuters, and BEVs and PHEVs with a small battery will be just fine for that use case. Yes, nobody can reasonably expect employers to install a battery of level 2 charging stations, but level 1 charging is a real possibility, and might work just as well, since the vehicles sit there most of the day anyway. I don't know what percentage of total personal vehicle miles are driven by commuters, but it's likely quite significant. While this use case does not apply to everyone, and might be of no interest to Rob, it's something to be seriously considered.

I have seen a number of coworkers, who purchased a mild plugin hybrid, and they were able to transfer most of their commute miles from gas to electricity. That's a significant win, even though mild hybrids are generally looked down upon by BEV drivers and enthusiasts, this does not mean that they are not part of the solution, and they were not a stage on the road towards a better future. Personally, while I appreciate and share the enthusiasm for BEVs, I'm not too fond of far-reaching generalizations based on a set of personal experiences. Yes, I'm rooting for Tesla, and think that a true revolution in transportation cannot come soon enough. In the meantime, I'm ready to embrace what works, and will help support it too. Hopefully, there are others who can relate to this mindset as well. Let's hope that Nissan will produce a longer-range LEAF soon. That said, I think they should retain a shorter-range version (at a lower cost) in their model lineup. One size does not fit all, regardless of what some people might think and say.

 

[constraint]

I have to agree with everything roblab is saying. The idea of having L2 chargers all over the place is to solve the fact that today's EV's have no range. When i do chores around town, I dont fill up my gas tank at every location. It is inconvenient and it would slows my day down.

Most of the charging should be done at home so I can have a "full tank" every morning. If you have a full charge with a lot of range, then there really is no need to hassle finding (and fighting over) an L2 charger. The only real case for requiring chargers is L3 chargers when you are going longerish distances as L3 and above are the only charging out there that can replenish large packs in reasonable amounts of time. Now besides the Tesla SC (which you essentially pre-pay for) most L3 chargers are going to be rather expensive (demand charging rates, large capital cost to install and still return a profit for the business that installed it). In this case L3 chargers are always going to be more expensive then charging slower with an L2 charger at home.

 

[rcc]

They wouldn't just be cars refueled every 70 miles. They'd be BEVs refueled every 70 miles on days when charging at home or at destinations isn't sufficient. In exchange for more stops on longer trips, you'd be getting a car that's smoother, quieter, more responsive, likely with better handling, requires less maintenance, is much cheaper to fuel and can be pre-conditioned in your garage.

Because of ultra-fast charging capability there'd be a business model supporting for-pay charging and, get this, because of the lack of fumes, you could have fully-enclosed or nearly-enclosed filling stations, better to shield people from the weather when plugging in. Oh, and you can plug your car in and leave it to go to the bathroom or buy a coffee or whatever. Or you can plug your car in, and then sit in the car and wait (while gas stations tell you not to open the door while using a gas pump).

People drive faster to save time and all (they think) it costs them is money, but with ultra-fast BEV charging they'd be exchanging much more than just money if they want to buy an ICEV for range.

An analogy to an ICEV with a small fuel tank is inappropriate. BEVs are just too different. The real negatives:
(1) Slow refueling
(2) Short range between refueling
(3) Significantly higher fuel consumption draw in low temperatures causes unpredictable range
All of those diminish with more capacity.

Either we're miscommunicating or we fundamentally disagree on a crucial point.

To be clear: I believe that a 70 mile range vehicle in the US will never sell in large quantity. Period. Dot. Doesn't matter if it's an EV or ICE.

Such a vehicle is such a royal pain on both long highway trips and even for daily driving that most people won't buy it. My wife is a case in point. Her share of driving the kids around means that 1-2 days of the week (at least), she's driving more than 70 miles per day. Even if she could recharge in 5 minutes, some of those days the schedule is so tight, she doesn't have 5 minutes to spare during a 70 mile run. She really wanted a LEAF but it just wasn't a feasible option. This is classic soccer-mom and there are a lot of them out there.

Whereas one of the many reasons I love my S is that I don't worry about charging. Unless I'm road-tripping, I drive during the day. I charge at home. No worries. It's better than an ICE - I've been late to meetings in the past because I had to stop and get gas on the way to work. Never again.

My claim and people may disagree: when it comes to pure battery-powered EVs (BEV) like the LEAF and Tesla's it's all about battery capacity.

Larger battery capacity:

- gives you more range
- lets you draw more power without damaging the battery
- lets you recharge faster without damaging the battery
- lowers the impact of cold and high speeds on range

When it comes to battery capacity, bigger is better.

The Nissan LEAF and other early BEV's have proven that a 24KwH pack isn't enough. Those cars need bigger batteries.

I think Tesla has proven that 200 miles is the magic number for BEV's. And I view that as "barely practical" - meaning that it's enough so that most people can drive all day and recharge at night. And it's tolerable for road trips although not ideal.

I think the "about right" threshold is >400-500 miles of range. Call that a 130-170 KwH battery pack. Pair that with a 120KW fast charging network and home charging you'll have something that's workable as both an everyday driver and road-tripping car and ICE's will start to fade away.

 

[jamieb]

Had a 2 hour long interview, 8 people there, video recorded, asked numerous questions most along the lines of "why did you buy Tesla?". Number one answer, It's Electric. #2 answer: RANGE.
...

Was a fun 2 hours. Hope I could push some helpful buttons.

I also participated in the same set of interviews, held near Sacramento at the California Fuel Cell Alliance (Nissan is a founding partner and has offices there). Although most of the questioning was from a marketing guy, he was the only marketer in the room - everyone else was an engineer, which I was pleased with - this is not just a marketing exercise, they're really paying attention. They liked that I was coming from an Infiniti :wink:. I echoed what roblab said. When asked what, if anything, I would change about the Model S I said that the interior quality could be upped a notch (better seats especially) and that I thought Tesla had gone a little overboard in the 'clean' design approach in eliminating things like over-window hand grips and a few buttons to hit without looking at the screen (like an overhead physical button to operate the Pano Roof), but that I was 99.9% ecstatic with the car and these were minor issues.

In chatting with the engineers after the formal interview was over, I asked about their opinion of Tesla as a competitor and was pleased at their candid response - they essentially acknowledged that the range of the Model S and the SuperCharger infrastructure was a 'game changer' and that Nissan's EV roadmap had been thrown into disarray - Tesla has a several year headstart and these interviews were the start of their re-evaluation of their strategy. Tesla showed them that a no-compromise Infiniti EV would have a market but it's going to take them a few years to catch up.

- - - Updated - - -

Another thing we discussed at the interview that got a lot of nodding heads from the engineers was when they asked me about how long I'd keep the car, and what I would do when the battery was 8 years old, out of warranty with range less than my benchmark (able to go from Sacramento to San Francisco and back without recharging).

I responded that one of the things that made me feel more comfortable about the long-term future of this car (and spending this much money on a car) was the modularity of the battery pack - there will be advances in battery tech in the next 5-10 years and the modular nature of the battery means that we Model S v1.x owners will almost certainly have battery upgrade paths before 8 years are up. Can easily envision 5 years from now being able to purchase a 150-200 kWh battery online for $10k making an appointment for a Service Center to swap out the batteries and getting it done in minutes. Not so easy on cars with batteries hidden all over the place.

 

[CalDreamin]

Very interesting discussion. Nissan is clearly very serious about improving their EV strategy. If anyone else has comments about their interview experience with Nissan, I'd like to hear about it.

 

[Al Sherman]

One size definitely does not fit all. There IS a sweet spot though. It seems as if Nissan is trying to figure this out. I have no idea what it is for the manufacturer. Driving an EV is compelling and addicting. There is a point on the graph where looks,functionality,and range intersect with price. Knowing what I know now about reduction in range in cold/bad weather, 150 miles EPA isn't it for me. 200 is much closer. Depending on price,looks, and functionality; Gen 3 might be right there.

 

[Reykjavik]

I think that if they offered a 150 mile range car, they would sell a lot at first, and then as people get used to EVs, people will adopt lower range models more.

100 miles is enough for just about everyone almost all the time, an extra 25 miles covers a lot of extenuating circumstances, 25 more is mostly going to serve to shut people up about range anxiety. 150 is still not enough for serious inter-city driving, but it would be popular.

 

[jerry33]

I think that if they offered a 150 mile range car, they would sell a lot at first, and then as people get used to EVs, people will adopt lower range models more.

100 miles is enough for just about everyone almost all the time, an extra 25 miles covers a lot of extenuating circumstances, 25 more is mostly going to serve to shut people up about range anxiety. 150 is still not enough for serious inter-city driving, but it would be popular.

I just can't see that. Maybe in some places for some folks that would work, but in DFW all it would take is a one day power outage and you couldn't get to work and back on the second day. More often--although perhaps not as importantly--you would be very limited to what you could do on the weekend--and forget about going out in the evening after work. I've had my Model S for almost a year now and I've been thankful for the extra range on many occasions. People do not want golf-carts that only go a few blocks. 150 miles would be fine as a second car used only for commuting--but that's no way to convert the majority of folks to electric. Why would anyone want to settle for a car that limits their choices?

 

[renim]

In as far as a 80 mile LEAF outsells the Volt, perhaps a 150 mile LEAF would do even better.

 

[jerry33]

In as far as a 80 mile LEAF outsells the Volt, perhaps a 150 mile LEAF would do even better.

I'd suggest that up to some point, the more miles the better the sales.

 

[DuncanWatson]

I just can't see that. Maybe in some places for some folks that would work, but in DFW all it would take is a one day power outage and you couldn't get to work and back on the second day. More often--although perhaps not as importantly--you would be very limited to what you could do on the weekend--and forget about going out in the evening after work. I've had my Model S for almost a year now and I've been thankful for the extra range on many occasions. People do not want golf-carts that only go a few blocks. 150 miles would be fine as a second car used only for commuting--but that's no way to convert the majority of folks to electric. Why would anyone want to settle for a car that limits their choices?

The golf-cart thing is an obvious straw-man argument and I will ignore. But you are strongly overestimating the average daily commute and overestimating the duration of power outages. A 75 mile daily commute is way over the norm. The worst commutes in my current office are from Everett or Federal Way and they are both under 30 miles one way. A 150 mile Leaf owned by someone living in the Seattle area would be fine for daily use by 90%+ of personal drivers. It would work for trips to Vancouver, BC or Portland, even Spokane.

Sure it would be less convenient than a Tesla S85. But the price point would be lower and it would be a big gain over Nissan's current offering.

As far as daily driving in city or the suburbs it is fine. Only when you get into certain parts of the country dealing with exurbs do you have issues. And exurbs are a horrible for quality of life anyway.

 

[John Luciano]

I agree. I could live with an 80 or 100 mile range car in the under $40,000 price range. A $75,000 car is not for everyone. Even a tree Hugger is still thinking about saving money. When you are paying $30,000 more for a car, it is hard to justify. I would love to see 30% of the cars on the road be un tied to a GAS pump. Tesla should ramp up the E and get it out there.

 

[jerry33]

But you are strongly overestimating the average daily commute and overestimating the duration of power outages.

Tell that to my neighbours. I got lucky this time, but they were out for two days.

A 75 mile daily commute is way over the norm.

Around here it would be above average. Mine's pretty average a 51 miles round trip if I make zero deviations (like stopping at the grocery store). Three of my sixteen co-workers commute 90 miles one-way. Five are 35 to 50 miles. The rest, including me, are 25 or less one-way.

The worst commutes in my current office are from Everett or Federal Way and they are both under 30 miles one way.

Seattle is not DFW. Also a 150 mile Leaf will only have a 105 mile range just like the 100 mile Leaf only has a 70 mile range on a good day (or a 300 mile Model S only has 265 miles for that matter.)

But the price point would be lower and it would be a big gain over Nissan's current offering.

I agree that 150 is better than 100 and would be a big gain. I don't think it's enough to sway most folks. You likely need to have at least 200 marketing miles to get an EV that is acceptable to many.

 

[phx182flyer]

Depends on what part of the country. Here is Phx, it is not uncommon to have 50 - 70 mile commutes just for work. (Mine is 60). Then tack on evening errands, dinner, etc, and you are already at 100 miles.