Nissan Leaf II

[renim]

FWIW, Nissan has stated a target of 600kms in the Japanese JC08 cycle (Tokyo cycle, very generous to EVs, brutal to normal ICEs) Global Newsroom

The 30kWh LEAF is 280kms JCO8, so the target for the LEAF 2 is 600/280 = 215% of the 30kWh version
since much of the improvement is aerodynamics, this should increase the hwy range more than the cty range.
i.e. hwy range increase considerably more than 215%

Using the 2016 fuel economy download, I've added an expected Nissan LEAF 2, and then sorted by range. The results are that the 60kWh LEAF 2 should approximate a RWD 75kWh Tesla Model S, or an AWD Performance 90kWh Tesla model X.

I suppose this is similar to saying that a Prius is 50% more fuel efficient than a 7 seater RAV4 hybrid/Lexus. Similar tech, but size matters. Compare Side-by-Side

 

[apacheguy]

That's great. How about charging infrastructure? EvGO is just so much less convenient in every aspect compared to a SpC.

 

[renim]

That's great. How about charging infrastructure? EvGO is just so much less convenient in every aspect compared to a SpC.

which country?

realistically, the VW settlement excludes proprietary DC chargers, but as Tesla is SC + AC18 + optional Chademo, the Tesla will always be better. There comes a stage when the DC infrastructure is good enough, it is reached much earlier with a 250mile range EV than with an 85mile range EV.

Will Chademo become good enough? yeah it will, along with CCS. It could even become better than SC, but SC + Chademo will always be better than Chademo (or CCS) alone. Despite considerably better DC infrastructure than USA, Europe's best selling EV does not either SC or Chademo or CCS. Just AC 22. Think about it. EV Sales: Europe June 2016

(from evsales blogspot)

 

[apacheguy]

The problem is not in the number of stations so much as the stalls per station and the weak power output as compared to a 120 kW SpC. Most EvGO stations only have 1-2 stalls and the second to arrive has to wait until the other has completely charged.

 

[renim]

The problem is not in the number of stations so much as the stalls per station and the weak power output as compared to a 120 kW SpC.

100KW Charging rate on a 125mpge car is probably faster than a 120Kw Charging rate on a 100mpg car.
It'll all come down to charge taper, actual mpge, etc

Most EvGO stations only have 1-2 stalls and the second to arrive has to wait until the other has completely charged.

just looking back at what NRG has done is not sufficient, there is a $2billion budget to be spent/burnt for EV infrastructure in USA (VW settlement) which is likely backed 1:1 by federal loan guarantees so it could be a $4billion budget.

Neither FastNed nor NRG nor Tesla have a viable standalone DC network, Tesla Motors subsidies its DC network as a marketing expense, is that a long term sustainable practise, I think it actually is - yes.
The others, just really on too big to fail to thinking, but with $2bill over 10 years, that problem is a decade away.

Long term, EVs will reach a days full range on battery power, perhaps for some countries that is 200 miles, perhaps for others it is 300 miles, my country it is 1000km. whichever it is, once it is reached highway network is unnecessary. Longterm the charging network is simply a destination network. Nissan LEAF 2 has probably reached that for UK and most of Japan. Not for America, but for other countries-yes.

 

[mikes_fsd]

A 200 mile Nissan Leaf is a 150 mile Nissan Leaf after one year, 120 miles after 2 years, and <100 miles after 3 years.

If you are referencing 2011 - 2013 first gen batteries, then yes, that is possible, but even those are replaceable for 5k.
But that definitely not the case with newer 2014+ batteries!

Source: 35k miles/yr on a Leaf...

 

[ReddyLeaf]

If you are referencing 2011 - 2013 first gen batteries, then yes, that is possible, but even those are replaceable for 5k.
But that definitely not the case with newer 2014+ batteries!

Source: 35k miles/yr on a Leaf...

Possible, yes, probably under high temps and driving, but not always for everyone. I will soon reach my 5 yr anniversary with about 75% battery (low mileage driver ~7000 mi/yr). Before you say "but you live in the "cool" PNW", let me state that we typically have two months of temps around 100 F, sometimes 2-3 weeks over 105 F. The original Leaf is a great car for in-town use, displacing a significant amount of emissions and gasoline use (especially when you consider that most in-town driving is VERY inefficient, short trips (1-3 mi), often much less than 20 mpg). Heck, many days I drive my Leaf fewer miles (5-10) than some have reported for the daily Tesla vampire drain. I still expect my Leaf to be usable for at least another 10 years (I was hoping for more, but the 70D has rectified some of my concerns).

As for the "phantom" Leaf II, we'll just have to wait and see what Nissan produces. I have confidence that they will eventually do something. Unfortunately, I think it will be too late (2017 or 2018), less than 200 mi, and more expensive than the current Leaf. The battery lifetime will certainly be better than the 2010-12 models (otherwise they will be in trouble with >50 KW charging). Yes, the Leaf II will be an improvement, but not a huge step change. For that, I think Nissan is targeting autonomous driving in 2020. As I've said before, Nissan will just be another "also ran vendor" unless they release a 200+ mi Leaf, SUV, Transit Van, and Infinity (in 2016-2017).

 

[RobStark]

BTW The VW $2B alternative refueling infrastructure settlement fund can also be used for H2 stations,CNG stations,Bio Diesel and and just about any fuel that shows it can significantly reduce emissions over gasoline.

My guess is H2 is going to get a big piece of the pie.

 

[GoTslaGo]

Since this is the most recent Nissan Leaf thread:

Buyers turn to Tesla Model 3 after Nissan shuts down massive LEAF group buy effort with 3,700 people

Quote:

Several people who signed up for the group buy are letting Nissan know that they will instead wait for the Tesla Model 3.

“Bye bye Nissan. Hi Tesla Model 3.” – a potential buyer commented.

Of course, they shouldn’t expect a group buy to be available for the vehicle since it wouldn’t make sense for Tesla to discount a vehicle with a backlog of 400,000 reservations.

The turn of event is particularly interesting when you consider that Nissan actually launched a new ad campaign earlier this year to attract Model 3 reservation holders.

If the group buy would have been successful, Nissan would have more than doubled its entire LEAF sales in Canada since the introduction of the vehicle in the market.

End quote.