Nissan Leaf sales down despite availability of new 30kW battery

[ecarfan]

Interesting article Nissan LEAF sales are in free-fall and Tesla Model 3 could have something to do with it

Quote from the article:
LEAF sales are now down 39% in 2016 versus the same period last year despite the availability of the upgraded battery pack and as previously mentioned, we need to take into account that last year’s performance was extremely disappointing and should have been easy to surpass.

Tesla’s reservation process for the Model 3 took a lot of people out of the market. Over 373,000 potential buyers, who presumably were on the market for a ~$35,000 electric vehicle, have now placed a reservation for the Model 3 and therefore are not likely to buy a vehicle for the next year or so while they are waiting for the new Tesla.

This is likely directly impacting the LEAF, which is in the same price range as a base Model 3: the new pack is standard on the LEAF SV and LEAF SL models which starts at $34,200 and $36,790 respectively. Nissan also still offers the 24 kWh pack option on the LEAF S, which starts at $29,010.

 

[HookBill]

Or, perhaps many are simply waiting for the Bolt to hit the lots. I would like to think Tesla M3 is a major part of this but lets not discount the Bolt and it's pending sales.

 

[182RG]

Don't discount the "cheap fuel" effect. With RUG close to $2.00 a gallon here, people tend to have short memories that influence their purchases.

Also, as one of the 373,000, I wasn't in the market for an electric car. I suspect there are many, many more like me. It's not about the cost of driving, nor do I care about saving the planet and fighting the evils of ICE. At all. For me, it's all about performance and new technology. It's the cool gadget factor.

 

[kort677]

for the guy wanting an ev and who can live with the smaller range that the LEAF has it has one huge advantage over the bolt and especially the m3, it is available now.

 

[RobStark]

for the guy wanting an ev and who can live with the smaller range that the LEAF has it has one huge advantage over the bolt and especially the m3, it is available now.

Apparently, not that many of those guys.

Hard to believe a significant segment of the 373k would not have bought a LEAF if there was no Model 3 on the horizon.

Some are probably also waiting on LEAF 2.0.

 

[glenhurst]

Don't discount the "cheap fuel" effect. With RUG close to $2.00 a gallon here, people tend to have short memories that influence their purchases.

Indeed, I heard on NPR on my drive home today that while sales of new vehicles overall are down a bit, SUV sales are up and car sales are down that much more.

 

[ReddyLeaf]

Unfortunately, the Leaf's run is pretty much done, relegated to another one of 10-20 PHEV available. It shared the mid-market 50:50 with the Volt, but that's so 2010. Nissan needs to introduce at least 3 or 4 nee good-looking, 200+mi EV's in August of THIS YEAR, or they will continue to be "just another lower cost choice." I'm thinking of a Leaf refresh and Rogue/Juke SUV for families, the IDS concept for techies, and the transit/mini-van for business. Hey, if that happens, and I don't expect it until at least 2018, I'll personally go to the dealer for a test drive. Otherwise, I (as well as 370,000 others), will just wait for the Model 3. Yup, that's a lot of people taken out of the EV market.

 

[Waiting4M3]

... Otherwise, I (as well as 370,000 others), will just wait for the Model 3. Yup, that's a lot of people taken out of the EV market.

I suspect that there would be a lot more than 370,000 potential buyers if Nissan or others come out with EVs as nice looking, fast, and long range as the Tesla, and affordable as model 3. Tesla didn't kill the Leaf, Nissan did, by making a "meh" EV and charge $30K+ for it

 

[GoTslaGo]

Not just the Leaf:

GM sales drop 18% in May, Ford down 5.9%, FCA up 1.1%

Here's the full chart from the article

 

[wdolson]

Don't discount the "cheap fuel" effect. With RUG close to $2.00 a gallon here, people tend to have short memories that influence their purchases.

In 2015 US sales for BEVs and PHEVs were down across the board except for the Model S (only comparing cars that were available in 2014). Some of it may have been due to new models of the Volt and Leaf coming out, but gas prices probably did hit the market hard. The only people who buy non-Tesla EVs are environmentalist buyers, people who are buying for some local incentive, or people who are trying to save gas money on their commute. When gas prices go down, the last buyers go back to ICEs. Some local incentives have gone away too, which drive away the inventive buyers leaving the environmentalist buyers who aren't enough to keep the niche alive.

The Ford Fusion Energi is up a little from last year, but most non-Tesla cars have flat sales, or sales are down from a year ago:
Monthly Plug-In Sales Scorecard

Also, as one of the 373,000, I wasn't in the market for an electric car. I suspect there are many, many more like me. It's not about the cost of driving, nor do I care about saving the planet and fighting the evils of ICE. At all. For me, it's all about performance and new technology. It's the cool gadget factor.

I do believe we should be moving away from gasoline for economic reasons if nothing else. There is still plenty of oil, but what's left is getting more and more expensive to extract and takes more energy to refine. Plus a significant portion of the world's highest quality oil is in one of the most unstable regions of the world.

That said, when I started shopping for a car, I started looking at ICEs. I wanted better gas mileage, but I wasn't interested in an electric. I bought a Model S not because it was an electric, but because it was a better car than anything else I looked at.

Elon Musk does want to save the world with electric cars, or at least help save the world, but he also knows the way to do it is to win over people who aren't out to save the world but just want a better car and Tesla is doing that. The only drawbacks to Teslas available right now are: cost and range and maybe for some size. They are addressing the cost issue with the Model 3, and range is the biggest inherent limitation to the technology. Batteries available today have about 1/30 the energy density of gasoline. The supercharger network goes a long ways towards addressing that limitation though.

In all other areas what Tesla has today is superior to ICEs in everything but creature comforts for those who want their cars to pamper them. That's a huge advantage.

We don't know 100% for sure the Model 3 is going to live up to the hype, but Tesla doesn't tend to disappoint when delivering new products.

 

[MacroP]

To me, those that actively look for a pure EV are a bit more savvy and know what's around now and what is coming around the corner. There's too much info on the web, many EV manufacturer specific enthusiasts forums (like TMC) around for those not to know.

As we all know, there's a new 60kWh Leaf coming soon, the bolt is on its way, and the Model 3 is (finally) on the horizon. So within 12months you can possibly buy the first two. Personally I would not even entertain a look at a current model Leaf knowing what I know now. I don't think I'm alone here.

Then there's the new Hyundai Ioniq due out in the short to moderate term to compete with the current Leaf. Current model Leaf is doomed IMO as there is soon to be a great choice and none of it is vapor ware it seems which is great.

Isn't there an upgraded e-golf coming by years end too? I'm almost loosing count. There now seems to be a weekly announcement on InsideEVs.

 

[wdolson]

VW is also the only other car company to make a major investment in a battery plant. They plan to be making 1 million BEVs a year by 2025. Of course Tesla will likely by making twice as many by then, but it will probably ensure their survival.

 

[GSP]

In addition to Nissan's $5B investment in battery plants and Leaf assembly plants on three continents, Tesla's gigafactory, and VW's announcement, Daimler has also announced a large investment to expand their battery production.

Nissan really needs more Leaf sales to pay off their investment.

GSP

 

[deonb]

The only people who buy non-Tesla EVs are environmentalist buyers, people who are buying for some local incentive, or people who are trying to save gas money on their commute.

Or people who actually... you know... need to drive a car, rather than a reservation.

 

[jbcarioca]

VW is also the only other car company to make a major investment in a battery plant. They plan to be making 1 million BEVs a year by 2025. Of course Tesla will likely by making twice as many by then, but it will probably ensure their survival.

In addition to Nissan's $5B investment in battery plants and Leaf assembly plants on three continents, Tesla's gigafactory, and VW's announcement, Daimler has also announced a large investment to expand their battery production.

Nissan really needs more Leaf sales to pay off their investment.

GSP

In actual fact we have many major investments now happening in software, battery/storage, powertrain and chassis design. Nearly every major OEM other than Fiat/Chrysler has major investments underway to support BEV and/or PHEV. We might denigrate less conventional innivations such as Fuel Cell and PSA's compressed energy storage but all the startups, potential deadends and marginal advances are contributing to the state of the art, as well as progress to potential breakthroughs. Every global energy storage manufacturers is now building new li-ion capacity with an amazing variety of chemistries, form factors, and materials. It is hard to exaggerate the importance of all the pure science in both chemistry and materials.

Just now we are in a similar position with vehicles as we were 110 years ago when steam, electric, alcohol, gasoline and kerosene all were competing. Fits and starts are happening.

Just as Elon pointed out the critical roles of both Daimler and Toyota in the survival of Tesla it seems to me we should be quite supportive of the huge influence Nissan has had globally with the Leaf, and the French and Japanese domestic producers have had in popularising small urban vehicles market. Both of those had the signal advantage in already having an established micro=vehicle market. (note: as a former owner of both a Honda N600 and an S800, plus driver of a BMW Isetta 300 I admit to bias in favor of microcars)

So, NIssan has a bit of first-mover disadvantage in the popular BEV class. They have produced more than any other non-Chinese builder (we don't often discuss BYD or the others but they are by far the largest producers of BEV's in the world) and sell the Denza luxury cars that they developed in a 50:50 JV with Daimler.

With all the development and growth around the world it seems to me Nissan will do fine just as soon as their own battery supplies grow and their other investments in BEV infrastructure mature. Frankly, despite all I have said above I have no question at all that Tesla Model S helped catalyze the German OEM's who were in turn driven by the EU and domestic European regulators who were given confidence by all the pretty decent short range EV's avalable there but above all by the realization that the Model S did it all without many compromises.

In short my own OEM kudos, just after Testa itself, go to Daimler, Toyota and Nissan. More or less in that order.

 

[kort677]

With all the development and growth around the world it seems to me Nissan will do fine just as soon as their own battery supplies grow and their other investments in BEV infrastructure mature.

one of the biggest issues nissan has regarding their leaf is their poor dealer network. way too many of their dealerships do not carry and/or promote the leaf. some actually will try to steer people away from the leaf into their traditional cars. until all their dealerships embrace and promote evs the future of their evs isn't looking good here in the US.

 

[electracity]

one of the biggest issues nissan has regarding their leaf is their poor dealer network. way too many of their dealerships do not carry and/or promote the leaf. some actually will try to steer people away from the leaf into their traditional cars. until all their dealerships embrace and promote evs the future of their evs isn't looking good here in the US.

I think it depends where you live. Areas with good EV penetration generally have certain dealers know to put an effort towards their brand of EV.

 

[gene]

one of the biggest issues nissan has regarding their leaf is their poor dealer network. way too many of their dealerships do not carry and/or promote the leaf. some actually will try to steer people away from the leaf into their traditional cars. until all their dealerships embrace and promote evs the future of their evs isn't looking good here in the US.

Yet even so, with these lousy dealers used to sell more EV's than anyone.

 

[gregd]

So what is Volvo doing right? Up 20% y/y, second only to Tesla. Just large math with small numbers, or is there something else to pay attention to?

 

[kort677]

I think it depends where you live. Areas with good EV penetration generally have certain dealers know to put an effort towards their brand of EV.

I guess that you haven't looked at or owned a Leaf.