OK, though I suspect that many Model 3 reservation holders who aren't in one of those categories is probably driving an ICE until the Model 3 is here.
There is a lot of EV development work going on out there. I think the major car companies are doing it because of a combination of CARB and insurance in case the Model 3 is the hit it looks like it will be. Doing a bit of R&D is a rather small investment though compared to the effort it will take to produce enough batteries. Companies like LG Chem have a bit of idle capacity, but it's estimated that LG Chem could only ramp up to build about another 20-25K more Bolts a year if demand warranted it based on their current idle capacity.
The numbers the majors are planning on building for the foreseeable future are still lower than Tesla is producing today. VW is the only major car maker that has announced plans to build 1 million or more EVs at any point in the future and they don't plan to get there until 2025. They also haven't made any announcements about what sort of range these EVs will have.
There is a lot of hype about the Bolt, but even if they wanted to GM won't be able to build more than 50K of them a year for at least 3-4 years. They could ramp up to build 1 million chassis a year, but there won't be enough batteries.
And there is a lot of research going on into better battery chemistries, but as Elon warned in the shareholder's meeting, 99% of the hype about batteries is false. Even if the killer chemistry combo is discovered tomorrow, it will take years to get it into mass production, anywhere from 5-10 years depending on how different the production process is.
Only one company today has in motion the plan to build over 1 million long range BEVs a year. VW is on the first step of that journey, but so far their own Gigafactory is vaporware. Tesla is the only one with an actual Gigafactory, even if it is only a slice of the final building. Elon said Panasonic's battery making hardware is in the plant now. If it hasn't already started, they are very close to starting production of batteries in Nevada.
Having all the tech in the world is great, but the winner is going to be who can produce the most number of batteries in the least amount of time. Today Tesla is about 3-4 years ahead of everyone.
Though i think the head and shoulders best tech is the BEV. ICE cars will still have a niche though, there are still places in the world where you can't plug in. You can drive across Australia's Outback in an ute with the bed loaded with extra fuel tanks. You could technically do it in a BEV too, but you'd have to stop every 300 miles, set up solar cells and sit there for a day or more waiting for the car to charge.
Overall microcars are not popular. Daimler is losing its shirt on Smartcar. I think they lose $5000 for every car sold.
China is another world as far as the car market goes. I believe a fair number of their cars wouldn't be considered highway safe in western countries. Another thing is China is one of the few growing car markets. Almost anything will sell. In the west, it's mostly a replacement market and buyers are more finicky. Supply exceeds demand for the most part.
Nissan will probably be one of the survivors, but the Leaf's popularity is falling. Oddly I've seen a couple of Leafs around town the last few months. I hadn't seen any for a long time and now they are getting common.
