Nissan might be right - for local commuting you don't need a long range EV. However, I still don't like the days were, after my 14 mile commute, I need to take my Leaf out for errands in the evening (another 32 miles) -- -and that day (starting with an 80% charge) ends with 'one bar' showing. My leaf would be a bit more useful if I had just a little more range. but that's the tough question - what is the right amount? Maybe nissan needs to take a play from Tesla and let people choose!
Nissan Says Long-Range EV Unnecessary
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Doug_G
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Just occurred to me that Chelsea Sexton was hired as a consultant for Nissan. I believe she has been pushing for short-range EVs over long-range. Maybe this is in part her influence.
I didn't buy any of my last five vehicles out of pure necessity. I bought them because they were a joy to drive, and were generally more reliable than the vehicle they replaced. I do agree that not every EV needs to be long range, and we could happily live with a shorter range vehicle to complement our Model S down the road when the right car is available.
... but I think there's also an interesting question of battery life that relates to range. Using a fraction of your available range means less stress on the battery over time and less frequent replacement. I thoroughly enjoyed driving from the Bay Area to San Diego and back without a single range charge, and having an average of roughly 100 miles of range left at each charging stop.
... but I think there's also an interesting question of battery life that relates to range. Using a fraction of your available range means less stress on the battery over time and less frequent replacement. I thoroughly enjoyed driving from the Bay Area to San Diego and back without a single range charge, and having an average of roughly 100 miles of range left at each charging stop.
I think short-range EV's will always be a niche market in the US. Anyone who actually needs a car in the US and has kids is going to start driving them around to playdates, lessons, afterschool activities, school dropoff/pickup if needed, etc. Plus the normal errands and/or commutes. And the occasional end-of-the day drive into the city, over to a friend for dinner, etc.
Short-ranged EVs with fast charging aren't good enough. You can't guarantee that the charger will be available and free when and where it's needed. Or that you'll even have the 20 minute window you need to fast-charge. My wife wanted to get a Leaf. I asked her to think about how much "back-to-back" driving she did and the range on the Leaf. We figured she'd blow the range limit on a Leaf multiple times a week.
IMO, Tesla's got the right model: put enough range into the car so the car can do everything you'd normally do in a day barring true road trips or really long day trips. Then offer multiple battery sizes because that range can vary from household to household. And have the smallest model give you >70 miles usable range. 70-220 miles of usable range covers a pretty good sweet spot. I think if Tesla can do >400 miles of usable range with reasonable cost, more superchargers and L2 chargers at hotels/motels, ICE's become dinosaurs.
A word about batteries. I think Tesla has done something that no car company thought possible: build a reliable EV using less reliable, more difficult to manage commodity Li-on battery cells. Commodity cells will always have the best energy-density per $$. That's why they become commodity. But it could be 10-20 years before commodity cells have the reliability and ease-of-use to be easily used in an EV.
So Tesla's got a huge technology advantage on the other companies. It's going to take them years to catch up, assuming they ever do.
Short-ranged EVs with fast charging aren't good enough. You can't guarantee that the charger will be available and free when and where it's needed. Or that you'll even have the 20 minute window you need to fast-charge. My wife wanted to get a Leaf. I asked her to think about how much "back-to-back" driving she did and the range on the Leaf. We figured she'd blow the range limit on a Leaf multiple times a week.
IMO, Tesla's got the right model: put enough range into the car so the car can do everything you'd normally do in a day barring true road trips or really long day trips. Then offer multiple battery sizes because that range can vary from household to household. And have the smallest model give you >70 miles usable range. 70-220 miles of usable range covers a pretty good sweet spot. I think if Tesla can do >400 miles of usable range with reasonable cost, more superchargers and L2 chargers at hotels/motels, ICE's become dinosaurs.
A word about batteries. I think Tesla has done something that no car company thought possible: build a reliable EV using less reliable, more difficult to manage commodity Li-on battery cells. Commodity cells will always have the best energy-density per $$. That's why they become commodity. But it could be 10-20 years before commodity cells have the reliability and ease-of-use to be easily used in an EV.
So Tesla's got a huge technology advantage on the other companies. It's going to take them years to catch up, assuming they ever do.
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qwk
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Yep. The problem is that people don't buy what Chelsea thinks they need and should buy, they buy what they think they need and want.
Your LEAF would also be more useful if there was more charging infrastructure. For example, if you had L2 charging at work you could top off to replace the range you used during your commute when you know you have another 50 miles to drive later. And if you had L2 charging wherever you were going, normally you'd stay around long enough to get enough charge to get home. Failing that, a couple well placed DC-QC stations would be plenty - in many cases one only needs 5-10 minutes of QC to make it where they need to go.
Well, the real problem is that long-range EVs are still quite a ways from being affordable for the masses. Very few people can afford $50-90k vehicles (after rebates). But a $20k vehicle (the LEAF after rebates) is much more palatable.
At least for my use, the LEAF still could use a bit more range or more charging infrastructure (charging at work, charging at common destinations and well placed DC-QC stations would have helped me in a number of examples). And while 3.3kW/16A charging is OK for most use - for effective opportunity charging (short stops of 15-60 minutes) one really needs to be able to charge at 30A if not more.
Even for 5-8 hour freeway trips, the Model S isn't quite there yet in comparison to gas cars. But with a few compromises (you might need to drive a little slower and spend more time "refueling") and a few well placed supercharges it works out very well for most.
brianman
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I don't think it's hyperbole. I think what 'yo' was referring to was the entire story:
- Tesla (the upstart American car company)
- delivering a quality
- Model S (as described relatively early on with few if any compromises between announcement and production)
- without significant delay
- to eager customers on a waiting list
- in an apparently profitable way.
Among all the experts and analysts worldwide, I suspect there are zero that predicted all 6 accurately.
^^^ this. I just don't have a habit of saying things so elegantly. guess that's why I'm a programmer and not a NY times writer.
Other major bullet point I would add is that's it's not just a normal car, it's the very first, IMHO (well, I think it's a fact, not an opinion, lol), successful production EV. Also IMO, quality car+american made is like an oxymoron -> hundreds of moving parts built by the lowest bidder (well, for ICE vehicles that have hundreds of moving parts...
). I'm glad Tesla took their time to focus on quality and not delivery numbers last quarter. That was definitely the right decision. Quality + customer service will win over #'s and PO'd owners. Slow and steady will win the race early on, then later focus on fast + consistent. Every person I've shown my S to is floored by the quality and very impressed. I have a big family get together next weekend and everyone is DYING to see the car. Perhaps some sales will be made as a result...I think that if you look at it objectively, the Nissan LEAF is the first successful production EV - it's been on the market for about 2 years now with over 50,000 sold.
It isn't entirely easy to draw a line. You could say that the Tesla Roadster is the first successful production EV, with 2500 sold over 5 years.
I think the term one might use is the most successful production EV of it's time. That way the EV1, Tesla Roadster, Nissan Leaf, Mitsubishi i-MiEV, Tesla Model S and probably others have all been the most successful production EV at some time.
If Nissan actually rolls out ENOUGH fast charging, it would be good enough for most people. The thing is, that's really really expensive. Far more expensive than setting up an entire Model S / Model X production line. At the moment Nissan isn't even trying to roll out fast charging outside California and Japan, and Nissan has not managed to yet roll out enough in either location. "Enough" fast charging is an *enormous* amount when your car is short range: the equivalent of "a gas station on every corner". It's a *possible* scenario, but I think it's going to be a really hard one to build out. Tesla's business model is better.
Norbert
TSLA will win
And I think the first to be profitable at least on a per-car basis. As far as I know, the Model S will be the first electric car allowing a company (or department) to become profitable overall.
(Both except for at the beginning of the 20th century, probably.)
stopcrazypp
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People are not necessarily calling for something like the Model S (large performance sports sedan), but rather just more battery options. For example, Leaf battery costs about $9k, let's say $10k for easy math and room for some margin for Nissan. If Nissan offered 12kWh more for $5000 or 24kWh for $10k, that would increase the usability of the Leaf greatly and probably help sales a lot. With Nissan not doing that, a lot of people are just waiting for Gen III or for other EVs that offer more range.
Definitely - I'd be all over a LEAF or similar car with the following specs:
34kWh+ battery (100 mile range at 65 mph with some buffer)
240V/30A L2 charging (bonus points for 40A charging)
50 kW DC quick charging
But realistically the LEAF as it is still covers the vast majority of my driving and would be perfect if there were just a bit more L2 and DCQC infrastructure for everything but road trips. As it is now, finding charging that fits in really well with most of my use is difficult even in an area with a good amount of L2 infrastructure and I usually end up making compromises when pushing the range limit.
For road trips I'd need something like the Model S 85 kWh which just isn't cost effective. Much more cost effective for our 2-car household would be a PHEV with 25-40 mi EV range (like a Volt), but the Volt needs just a smidge more room (and ideally 45+mpg on the range extender like a Prius instead of 35-40 mpg) to be practical for my use.
brianman
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Agreed, if you draw the line somewhat arbitrarily at say 10,000 units to mean "production".
Edit: Well mostly. The 50,000 doesn't jive with the numbers from the other thread:
My Nissan Leaf Forum View topic - Worldwide Plugin Sales Numbers
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brianman
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Yah, that's quite a discrepancy from the 37,421 number in the post I linked. Interesting.
ipdamages
Roadster Sport 835
It is a clear case of sample selection bias for Nissan to conclude from its study that an EV with longer range than a LEAF is not necessary - or at least not demanded by the market such that vehicles with longer range will sell. Of course, things like necessity and demand are by nature subject to definition, and particularly in the trade-offs of things like range and price and vehicle size.
But citing that the Model S has sold thousands of vehicles in the first six months, and that those vehicles almost all have the 85 kWh pack, is also potentially misleading.
1) The average price of the Model Ss sold is probably >$90K (pre-rebate), so for that price, you can be damned sure that people will expect a lot more range than 70 miles. The Model S is in a different market than the LEAF. I betcha that over 90% of Model S sales through the end of February were to individuals with family incomes in the top 2% of US households. The Model S is a rich man's car. But the LEAF is not. Or if so, it is frugal rich men with no concern for the appearance of the car, 'cause man is that LEAF is UGLY! But regardless, each model has sold arguably well, albeit to pretty different customers. I'll be interested to see how LEAF sales trend in the coming months as we see some Model S 40 kWh customers start to buy cars with few options - but even then it costs more than double the price of a LEAF.
As a result, it is much easier to sell cars with lots of battery options if you charge 2.5 - 5 times as much for the car, after rebates. But if we see Model Ss cannibalizing LEAF sales, that will tell us something.
2) It's not so hard to put in several battery packs of different sizes and let customers choose what they want, to vote with their feet - when you have a car that is larger than many SUVs! If you remove the criterion of having the car be able to fit in a single parking space (in addition to price being no object), then sure, people will prefer more range. But I'm a perfect example of someone for whom size is a criterion. I can afford a Model S, but I don't want one. The car is just too huge to be usable for me. As a result, the Model S's range is irrelevant to me, and I'm not buying one of the smaller BEVs with 150+ miles of range and a price under $50K because ... no such car is available for sale.
3) Nissan sold 9,819 LEAFs in the US last year. Nissan Leaf 2012 US Sales Stop Just Short of 10,000 - Volt Sales Stay Steady - autoevolution By comparison, Porsche sold 3,356 Boxsters + Caymans, 8,528 911s, and 7,614 Panameras. Porsche Reports Best-Ever Sales in 2012; 21 percent increase over 2011 -- ATLANTA, Jan. 3, 2013 /PRNewswire/ -- I'd say that isn't a bad job by Nissan (setting aside the incentives required to make those sales), considering that the LEAF is butt-ugly and has such crappy range. Obviously there is a market for a small, dorky, short-range BEV at a low price. So is it necessary to have more range? Apparently not if you are good with those sales figures for 2012.
As I wrote above, I will be curious to see what the sales trends are now that the early adopters of the Model S have made their purchases. Will Model S and the 40 kWh pack now take LEAF customers? Surely some, but I'm not sure how many.
Some have written that they look forward to when Tesla releases the Gen III and they can have a smaller car with healthy range for a good price. Assuming that the previously not possible becomes possible (BMW 3-series size, $45K price after rebates, 200+ ideal mile range, nice looks, decent storage/trunk), I expect to be a buyer. If that comes to pass, then Nissan will have to step up. But as of now, they are in such a different market that I don't really think they are losing many sales to Model Ss with long range (60s and 85s). If BMW or VW or Audi (or Tesla) were to bring a 150-mile ideal range BEV to market in a 3-series sized body for a modest price, then that would be a game changer. But right now I can't see one of those on the market until at least 2016.
As a result, I think that the LEAF is currently losing more sales to plug in hybrids like the Volt or PIPrius.
My $0.02...
- - - Updated - - -
February 2013 EV sales
Apparently the Model S hasn't hurt LEAF sales as they are posting better numbers in early 2013 than in 2012.
But citing that the Model S has sold thousands of vehicles in the first six months, and that those vehicles almost all have the 85 kWh pack, is also potentially misleading.
1) The average price of the Model Ss sold is probably >$90K (pre-rebate), so for that price, you can be damned sure that people will expect a lot more range than 70 miles. The Model S is in a different market than the LEAF. I betcha that over 90% of Model S sales through the end of February were to individuals with family incomes in the top 2% of US households. The Model S is a rich man's car. But the LEAF is not. Or if so, it is frugal rich men with no concern for the appearance of the car, 'cause man is that LEAF is UGLY! But regardless, each model has sold arguably well, albeit to pretty different customers. I'll be interested to see how LEAF sales trend in the coming months as we see some Model S 40 kWh customers start to buy cars with few options - but even then it costs more than double the price of a LEAF.
As a result, it is much easier to sell cars with lots of battery options if you charge 2.5 - 5 times as much for the car, after rebates. But if we see Model Ss cannibalizing LEAF sales, that will tell us something.
2) It's not so hard to put in several battery packs of different sizes and let customers choose what they want, to vote with their feet - when you have a car that is larger than many SUVs! If you remove the criterion of having the car be able to fit in a single parking space (in addition to price being no object), then sure, people will prefer more range. But I'm a perfect example of someone for whom size is a criterion. I can afford a Model S, but I don't want one. The car is just too huge to be usable for me. As a result, the Model S's range is irrelevant to me, and I'm not buying one of the smaller BEVs with 150+ miles of range and a price under $50K because ... no such car is available for sale.
3) Nissan sold 9,819 LEAFs in the US last year. Nissan Leaf 2012 US Sales Stop Just Short of 10,000 - Volt Sales Stay Steady - autoevolution By comparison, Porsche sold 3,356 Boxsters + Caymans, 8,528 911s, and 7,614 Panameras. Porsche Reports Best-Ever Sales in 2012; 21 percent increase over 2011 -- ATLANTA, Jan. 3, 2013 /PRNewswire/ -- I'd say that isn't a bad job by Nissan (setting aside the incentives required to make those sales), considering that the LEAF is butt-ugly and has such crappy range. Obviously there is a market for a small, dorky, short-range BEV at a low price. So is it necessary to have more range? Apparently not if you are good with those sales figures for 2012.
As I wrote above, I will be curious to see what the sales trends are now that the early adopters of the Model S have made their purchases. Will Model S and the 40 kWh pack now take LEAF customers? Surely some, but I'm not sure how many.
Some have written that they look forward to when Tesla releases the Gen III and they can have a smaller car with healthy range for a good price. Assuming that the previously not possible becomes possible (BMW 3-series size, $45K price after rebates, 200+ ideal mile range, nice looks, decent storage/trunk), I expect to be a buyer. If that comes to pass, then Nissan will have to step up. But as of now, they are in such a different market that I don't really think they are losing many sales to Model Ss with long range (60s and 85s). If BMW or VW or Audi (or Tesla) were to bring a 150-mile ideal range BEV to market in a 3-series sized body for a modest price, then that would be a game changer. But right now I can't see one of those on the market until at least 2016.
As a result, I think that the LEAF is currently losing more sales to plug in hybrids like the Volt or PIPrius.
My $0.02...
- - - Updated - - -
February 2013 EV sales
Apparently the Model S hasn't hurt LEAF sales as they are posting better numbers in early 2013 than in 2012.
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Good summary ipdamages.
There is definitely a market for a vehicle with more EV range than the LEAF, but can't afford a Model S. There are people popping in all the time asking if a 50+ mile commute is doable, and in reality, you probably don't want to drive 50+ miles between charges regularly unless you have a slow commute, you don't need a lot of heat in the winter and don't live in Phoenix where the heat cooks the batteries.
But for a lot of those people, another 10 kWh of battery capacity and/or workplace L2 charging would make it easily doable without worry.
There is definitely a market for a vehicle with more EV range than the LEAF, but can't afford a Model S. There are people popping in all the time asking if a 50+ mile commute is doable, and in reality, you probably don't want to drive 50+ miles between charges regularly unless you have a slow commute, you don't need a lot of heat in the winter and don't live in Phoenix where the heat cooks the batteries.
But for a lot of those people, another 10 kWh of battery capacity and/or workplace L2 charging would make it easily doable without worry.
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