No AWD for Model 3 until next year confirmed

[dsvick]

My expectation is that when the design studio opens, it'll open in reservation blocks the way they did with the Model X. You can choose to configure and order at that time or wait (defer). This is the way Tesla gives you priority, and choosing to wait means that you're waiving your reservation priority. Again, precisely how they handled the Model X.

I am assuming that when the design studio first opens, it will not have AWD as an option. The options available for configuration will be the options available for immediate builds. So that implies that a lot of people who are ordering RWD vehicles, but who reserved after me and are not current owners/California residents/etc., will jump in front of me as their design studios open.

At the time AWD is available for configuration, I'll be able to place my order and it will be put in queue.

Again, that's my guess as to how it will work, informed to some degree by how they handled Model X.

That makes it sound like it will be a free for all when dual motors becomes available. If an early person deferred they could end up behind someone that reserved later that was just quicker off the line when D was made available? There will be a lot of people sitting there hitting "refresh" on their browsers ....

 

[AnxietyRanger]

That makes it sound like it will be a free for all when dual motors becomes available. If an early person deferred they could end up behind someone that reserved later that was just quicker off the line when D was made available? There will be a lot of people sitting there hitting "refresh" on their browsers ....

That is exactly what it sounds like - and @ohmman may well be right on this.

In the end, the reservation sequence meant very, very little in the case of previous Model launches, beyond the first U.S. signature orders that were specifically honored (indeed, in the case of the Roadster the Signature ownership had some real special meaning too and even with Model X some of the low-number Signatures were specially assigned VINs and made sure they made deliveries first). Beyond that, it happens exactly as @ohmman described, a free for all, only paced a little by reservation blocks and, in a major way, the selected configurations... an international markets are completely secondary in that, perhaps again with some show and fanfare for the first few cars reservations within that market, but lacking a Signature model perhaps not even that.

Though, it is possible they offer some not immediately available options for order on launch, which would allow people to register their place in the order queue for later configurations (perhaps AWD), this has happened at times (e.g. Model X cold weather pack and later five-seater). It is certainly also not impossible they would try to order the larger order queue by reservation time of that customer, but if they do so, that would be something they have not done before on a larger scale. In the end, I expect the place in the queue will be quickly lost to greater forces such as feature batching and regional shipment optimization... if there are some California cars to be made and delivered at end of a quarter, I wouldn't see it beyond them to add even brand new orders to fill such spots.

I fully expect some new reservations/orders from California getting their Model 3 in matter of weeks from reservation in late 2017 or early 2018, no matter what the larger number of reservations is.

 

[geoffreak]

No, it's really not going to be a free-for-all. I'm surprised this idea is persisting despite direct evidence and past precedent to the contrary.

Elon Musk has clearly and unambiguously stated your place in line matters for AWD. This happened just 3 weeks ago, so we know their plans won't have changed since then.

Tim Shelton on Twitter

How will that impact early reservation holders that want to wait for a dual motor car?

Elon Musk on Twitter

First in line for dual motor as soon as we can make it, which is probably in 6 to 9 months.

 

[juanmedina]

Will the disclose the pricing of all the options and trims even though the configurator will be open for RWD only?

 

[geoffreak]

Will the disclose the pricing of all the options and trims even though the configurator will be open for RWD only?

The configurator would not "open for RWD only". There's a difference between delivery timelines and configuration timelines. Tesla has for the past launches opened the full configurator with all options and prices to small batches of people at a time during the ramp up. I see no reason to believe that will change much this time.

 

[Drone Flyer]

Keep in mind 100,000 cars a year and 400,000 have placed an order. That means 4 years before you get the Model 3 and that will only be the rear wheel drive one.
Even if they double production to 200,000 a year, it's still a 2 year wait for the model 3 rear wheel drive only!

 

[Wolverinegeoff]

Keep in mind 100,000 cars a year and 400,000 have placed an order. That means 4 years before you get the Model 3 and that will only be the rear wheel drive one.
Even if they double production to 200,000 a year, it's still a 2 year wait for the model 3 rear wheel drive only!

Pretty sure the ramp up goal is actually 500,000 per year by next year (400k Model 3, 100k S/X) He made quite a big deal about moving this timeline up to next year instead of 2020, which is why they are emphasizing manufacturability instead of 10,000 options on the 3.

Edit: He also didn't say they'd be making ALL of the RWD orders first, just that they'd add in the dual motors to the line later, presumably once they've worked out the kinks.

 

[gregincal]

Keep in mind 100,000 cars a year and 400,000 have placed an order. That means 4 years before you get the Model 3 and that will only be the rear wheel drive one.
Even if they double production to 200,000 a year, it's still a 2 year wait for the model 3 rear wheel drive only!

That doesn't make any sense. They just said they were going to slightly delay starting production of all wheel drive, but waiting for AWD doesn't have anything to do with how many people reserved. Despite the title of this thread, Elon has since indicated that AWD production will start by the end of the year. The delay will only matter to people at the front of the line. After that it won't matter whether you want AWD or RWD, you will get the car at the same time.

 

[AnxietyRanger]

Keep in mind 100,000 cars a year and 400,000 have placed an order. That means 4 years before you get the Model 3 and that will only be the rear wheel drive one.
Even if they double production to 200,000 a year, it's still a 2 year wait for the model 3 rear wheel drive only!

While what you say is possible, I have to wonder.

First of all, not 400,000 have placed an order - some number up there (can be more) have placed a paid reservation. We learned from both Model S and Model X that converting those reservations to orders is hardly automatic, both lost a significant number right then and there.

Secondly, no matter how I try, I just can not see a likely 2-4 year wait for new Model 3 orders. Maybe my hunch is wrong - I certainly concede such a wait is possible - but I would not be surprised given Tesla's past that if your configuration and regional location are suitable, Tesla will fit you in at a much earlier date.

As I've said, I wouldn't be surprised if some new California orders aren't fulfilled in a matter of weeks sometime in late 2017 or early 2018. Not that it is guaranteed or anything, I just wouldn't be surprised...

 

[AnxietyRanger]

No, it's really not going to be a free-for-all. I'm surprised this idea is persisting despite direct evidence and past precedent to the contrary.

Elon Musk has clearly and unambiguously stated your place in line matters for AWD. This happened just 3 weeks ago, so we know their plans won't have changed since then.

Elon says a lot of things. Frankly, many of us just don't believe him on such details.

It is easy to say the place in line matters, but real precedent is, it really hasn't mattered much at all beyond perhaps some of the first people in line and rough batching groups. The likelihood seems that Tesla will make a token effort to respect the queue in Design Studio invite batching, but not much more. In the end, your local region and configuration has played a much larger role, as does Tesla's quarterly planning (e.g. they haven't been building your car unless there is a good chance to deliver it within the quarter too), than any reservation queue has.

Though it is certainly possible an AWD option will be in the Design Studio from day one (unless they try to squeeze out more RWD orders), even then it won't matter that much if precedent is anything to go by. Most people haven't been invited to configure in very specific batches, which alone has muddied the position in the queue as your haste on configuring and confirming the order plays a bigger role than reservation queue number. And in the end, where you are and what features you have selected for your car has mattered a lot more to when you get your car, as Tesla batches and optimizes for those.

 

[Sparky22]

I think with 10,000 cars being billed every week they will go through the reservations fairly quick. And on top of that people with cancelations and upgrades to S or X will make a difference.
I would't be surprised if we have to confirm and chose options by August or September, who reserved year ago.

 

[gregincal]

Elon says a lot of things. Frankly, many of us just don't believe him on such details.

It is easy to say the place in line matters, but real precedent is, it really hasn't mattered much at all beyond perhaps some of the first people in line and rough batching groups. The likelihood seems that Tesla will make a token effort to respect the queue in Design Studio invite batching, but not much more. In the end, your local region and configuration has played a much larger role, as does Tesla's quarterly planning (e.g. they haven't been building your car unless there is a good chance to deliver it within the quarter too), than any reservation queue has.

Though it is certainly possible an AWD option will be in the Design Studio from day one (unless they try to squeeze out more RWD orders), even then it won't matter that much if precedent is anything to go by. Most people haven't been invited to configure in very specific batches, which alone has muddied the position in the queue as your haste on configuring and confirming the order plays a bigger role than reservation queue number. And in the end, where you are and what features you have selected for your car has mattered a lot more to when you get your car, as Tesla batches and optimizes for those.

Let's put it this way. When you placed your order will matter as much for AWD orders as for RWD orders. As you say, there is a lot of other factors that determine when you get your car, and some of them remain a mystery to everybody outside Tesla. But looking at past history it's not like the first orders are delivered in order and then it descends into chaos. For each wave the order makes some amount of sense but with a fair bit of randomness.

 

[daniel]

Where you are and what options you order will play a big part. But they've promised that within those parameters, your place in the reservation queue will be respected.

What I want (and hope for) is that at time of ordering they'll tell us how long a delay there will be for each option, so that we can make an informed decision whether or not to wait for an option we want, but maybe would be willing to forego if the wait would be too long. It would be even better if that information were available a week or so before the invitation to order arrives, to give us time to ponder, based on more than wild speculation.

 

[gregincal]

Where you are and what options you order will play a big part. But they've promised that within those parameters, your place in the reservation queue will be respected.

What I want (and hope for) is that at time of ordering they'll tell us how long a delay there will be for each option, so that we can make an informed decision whether or not to wait for an option we want, but maybe would be willing to forego if the wait would be too long. It would be even better if that information were available a week or so before the invitation to order arrives, to give us time to ponder, based on more than wild speculation.

What you need to realize is that while they are ramping up you can get things like they are waiting for the next shipment of Black Leather, for instance, and suddenly later orders that requested a different seat material get bumped for reasons that are entirely mysterious to people outside Tesla. Their primary concern is pumping out cars as fast as they can, and whatever they can do to make that happen is far more important to them than respecting reservation order. So while everything else being equal, I do believe they go in reservation order, there are enough factors involved to make the customer experience seem fairly random.

So when looking over the course of months things are

 

[Gen3Joe]

I highly doubt they would take a deferral approach for any option they plan to release with, delays or not.

If you're going to use the Model X as a comparison, look no further than the 5 seat option. When the Model X opened to the first configurations (after Founder/Signature) it had a 5 seat option that could be selected. It just had the message "available mid 2016" (this was late 2015).

Just like AWD for the 3, Tesla communicated prior to release that a 5 seat option would be available for the X. They had it available for people to select when orders opened, but didn't fulfill the option until later. I see no reason to believe they would do anything different for the 3.

Tells PLEASE if you are monitoring these forums make it this way and not the way ohmman suggested. I arrived at my local Tesla store at 6PM and stayed the night on 3/30/16 so I could be one of the first in line (there were 2 people before me). I really REALLY don't want to have to fight with the masses when the AWD-P model becomes available a year from now. So I say again please make this a configuration option as soon as the design studio opens up in July.

OK I doubt anyone from Tesla will ever see that but a boy could wish.

 

[AnxietyRanger]

Let's put it this way. When you placed your order will matter as much for AWD orders as for RWD orders. As you say, there is a lot of other factors that determine when you get your car, and some of them remain a mystery to everybody outside Tesla. But looking at past history it's not like the first orders are delivered in order and then it descends into chaos. For each wave the order makes some amount of sense but with a fair bit of randomness.

But when you placed your order is not what was being measured here. When you made your reservation was.

I agree the order in which the orders were made matters more than when the reservation was made. That was a big part of my point after all... Free for all meaning, the reservation queue will not likely be followed when opening up the orders, instead it becomes a free for all to put their orders in... beyond perhaps some first reservationists for show as well as some rough batching.

After that, the location and configuration of the buyer of course matters even more than the order in which people complete their orders. If past is any predictor, there will not be any strict reservation queue following that some people seem to be expecting.

 

[AnxietyRanger]

Where you are and what options you order will play a big part. But they've promised that within those parameters, your place in the reservation queue will be respected.

They have promised a lot of things. Those of us doing this long enough have learned when not to trust the promises.

I think @ohmman is likely right on this one and your trust is likely misplaced here.

Now, whether or not AWD appears on the initial Design Studio is a separate question. It is possible that it will.

 

[smac]

Now, whether or not AWD appears on the initial Design Studio is a separate question. It is possible that it will.

I highly doubt it. Tesla will want to close every reservation they can..

They have sales momentum on their side right now, and one of the worst things to do in that situation is to give people reason to postpone a firm decision. (Sales 101).

If it's simply not mentioned, then sure some may hold out, but others might just think "Oh well I'm sure I can make this work, and I can get the basic one now, then upgrade when the AWD car arrives".

 

[daniel]

What you need to realize is that while they are ramping up you can get things like they are waiting for the next shipment of Black Leather, for instance, and suddenly later orders that requested a different seat material get bumped for reasons that are entirely mysterious to people outside Tesla. Their primary concern is pumping out cars as fast as they can, and whatever they can do to make that happen is far more important to them than respecting reservation order. So while everything else being equal, I do believe they go in reservation order, there are enough factors involved to make the customer experience seem fairly random.

This makes complete sense. If you ordered black leather and they run out of black leather, they'll fill the next order in line. But anyone who ordered black leather after you will remain behind you in the line. I have no problem with this. Nobody could ask them to halt production until more black leather becomes available. So you get put on hold, along with all the other similar orders. This may lead to confusion and unhappiness among people waiting in line, but cannot be avoided. Unless...

Perhaps for people who just want a car as early as possible, things like interior and paint color should allow buyers to choose "Whatever's available." Perhaps there should be an option for "I'll take any options."

I'm hopeful that Tesla will do a pretty good job. And I'm confident that 99.9% of us are going to love our Model 3 cars. That's really the bottom line. I have no doubt that my Model 3 will be the best car overall I've ever owned. Except maybe for that ugly little p.o.s. Zap Xebra which made up for bad design, lousy quality, and miserable lack of power with more charm than six-year-old Shirley Temple singing The Good Ship Lollipop in the movie Bright Eyes.

 

[AnxietyRanger]

I highly doubt it. Tesla will want to close every reservation they can..

They have sales momentum on their side right now, and one of the worst things to do in that situation is to give people reason to postpone a firm decision. (Sales 101).

If it's simply not mentioned, then sure some may hold out, but others might just think "Oh well I'm sure I can make this work, and I can get the basic one now, then upgrade when the AWD car arrives".

Indeed, I can see it turning out exactly the way you say.

Then again, if Tesla does post AWD, they can collect deposits for those AWD orders and honor early reservationists queue better/easier. There would be some upsides (and precedent) to that as well. After all, Tesla did post Model X five-seater around a year before availability...