No incentive to keep improving AutoPilot on HW1

[mhw23]

Although Elon has said that HW1 AP features will continue to improve, I don't see any incentive for Tesla to continue improvement in HW1. The number of HW1 cars are now fixed, and will be dwindling over time as they are taken out of service (e.g. accidents, etc.). The number of HW2 cars are increasing by the day, and with Model 3 volumes, HW1 will be a tiny fraction of the overall Tesla fleet.

I just don't see any rationale for additional HW1 improvements outside of standard fleet learning tweaks to current algorithms.

Anyone agree / disagree?

 

[3Victoria]

Improvements in the works this week:
Elon Musk ‏@elonmusk
New rev for Autopilot HW2 rolling out Mon to first 1000 & to rest of fleet in shadow mode. Also improves HW1 and enables Ludicrous+.

 

[MarcusMaximus]

Although Elon has said that HW1 AP features will continue to improve, I don't see any incentive for Tesla to continue improvement in HW1. The number of HW1 cars are now fixed, and will be dwindling over time as they are taken out of service (e.g. accidents, etc.). The number of HW2 cars are increasing by the day, and with Model 3 volumes, HW1 will be a tiny fraction of the overall Tesla fleet.

I just don't see any rationale for additional HW1 improvements outside of standard fleet learning tweaks to current algorithms.

Anyone agree / disagree?

Perception. Cell phones can be safely ignored after a year or two since most people get rid of their phones for new ones in that time anyway. But if the older Model S' are abandoned, it'll severely hurt the brand image as cars are kept for 10 years+ and, even more importantly, resale values on virtually all used Model S' will plummet.

As the number of HW1s dwindle, it'll become safe to abandon them. But for now support needs to continue for the sake of Tesla's image.

 

[u00mem9]

I think you are right and I don't think there is much left to improve on the software front with AP1

 

[ElectricTundra]

How well Tesla continues to support the older platforms will have a measurable impact on sales of newer platforms.

 

[drklain]

Agreed. There are some companies that stand behind (and support their products) long after it probably doesn't make any financial sense to do so. For an example, look at the Mitusbishi MU-2. The plane was discontinued in 1985. There are about 300 still flying in the world today. Mitsubishi continues to support the aircraft.

While the number of AP1.0 cars is now fixed, it will be several years before they are less than 50% of the total Tesla fleet. It is most likely that upgrades/code changes developed for the AP2.0 cars will then be implemented in the AP1.0 code if possible. I would be surprised if they stop supporting/upgrading the AP1 cars in the next 5 years. Even then, the only reason I would see them stopping future upgrades is if they reach a point where they just can't do anymore with the existing hardware.

Just my 2 cents' worth.

 

[aesculus]

This is another reason I think they should have created an upgrade path outside of replacing the car. Getting rid on AP1 cars by updating them makes more sense than letting them dwindle away through attrition IMHO. One of those hidden costs that can add up to more than the retrofit costs.

 

[aesculus]

For an example, look at the Mitusbishi MU-2. The plane was discontinued in 1985. There are about 300 still flying in the world today. Mitsubishi continues to support the aircraft.

One of the greatest planes made IMHO.

 

[drklain]

Totally agree. Have about 800 hours in MU-2s. Best bang for the buck bar none. Have a bunch of youtube videos I made flying the MooToo after learning tricks about cockpit videos from another MU-2 pilot who ultimately sold his two MU-2s and moved up to a Beech Premier...

 

[Drone Flyer]

I think you are right and I don't think there is much left to improve on the software front with AP1

Slow down here!
AP 1 needs a fair amount of improving and I'm sure it will.
For safety sakes, they will be required by law to have AP 1 cars read stop signs and traffic lights. This way, it will be a totally safe vehicle to drive.
The full autonomy is not needed anyway as I feel it is a gimmick more than a practical need.
Having Autopilot assistance, as it is now, along with TACC and the ability to read red lights and stop signs would just about round it out for Ap 1.

 

[number12]

Reason to improve AP1...
-None

Reasons to degrade AP1...
-Liability
-Encourage AP1 to upgrade to AP2
-No more profit left to squeeze out (unlike AP2 with FSD upgrade)
-Liability
-Liability
-Etc. and so on...

 

[hockeythug]

What are you expecting? There is only so much they can do with that hardware.

 

[phigment]

Slow down here!
AP 1 needs a fair amount of improving and I'm sure it will.
For safety sakes, they will be required by law to have AP 1 cars read stop signs and traffic lights. This way, it will be a totally safe vehicle to drive.
The full autonomy is not needed anyway as I feel it is a gimmick more than a practical need.
Having Autopilot assistance, as it is now, along with TACC and the ability to read red lights and stop signs would just about round it out for Ap 1.

Wait, so you think some government agency is going to make it required that all cars on the road must read traffic signs? That would surely clear off lots of cars from the road real quick.

 

[number12]

What are you expecting? There is only so much they can do with that hardware.

False
I bet with no restrictions and no liability issues AP1 could do a lot. Just compare 6.0 to 8.0

 

[hockeythug]

False
I bet with no restrictions and no liability issues AP1 could do a lot. Just compare 6.0 to 8.0

This isn't adding the ability to name your car and peoples lives are at stake.

 

[number12]

This isn't adding the ability to name your car. Peoples lives are at stake.

If in Elon's words AP1 is safer than human drivers in most situations.. but nags, etc. make it unusable are we not endangering human lives?

 

[Hugh Mannity]

I wonder if the AP1 release out this week will recognise stop signs? Maybe even signals? Twould be cool.

 

[hockeythug]

If in Elon's words AP1 is safer than human drivers in most situations.. but nags, etc. make it unusable are we not endangering human lives?

What exactly are you looking for to be added to AP1?

 

[number12]

What exactly are you looking for to be added to AP1?

Me personally? Not much.

Just stuff added back that was there + improvements that come with time (ie: seeing two cars ahead)

Now they might as well add hwy exits, better summons feature, etc. while we are at it.

 

[cynix]

What are you expecting? There is only so much they can do with that hardware.

They did promise that "your car will eventually be able to drive autonomously on private property and meet you at the front door" during the original Autopilot event…