No Model 3 battery fires!

[Daniel in SD]

I'm a rational guy and it's illogical to interpret Musk's statement that the Model 3 AWD could run on only one drive unit as that he thinks the drive units are inherently unreliable. Here's my RATIONAL take on that:

During development, Musk asked the software engineers, what happens if a motor in a dual motor car fails. The engineers tell him the motors are so reliable it's not a reasonable concern. But Musk is troubled by this. He knows that everything has a failure rate and this means a dual motor car has twice the failure rate of a single motor car. Why should the buyer of the more expensive dual motor car have statistically less reliability when, in fact, the extra motor should offer extra redundancy? But his engineers insist the motors are so reliable this might only happen to one in a million dual motor cars and having FWD and RWD software in addition to AWD software makes development and testing much more involved. It's much easier, they tell him, to just have AWD drive software and, in the unlikely event that either drive unit fails, they will just disable the car and show a "Tow to service center" message. But Musk thinks dual motors should offer redundancy and he tells his engineers this isn't about what's easiest, it's about what's best, and to develop software to deal with either front or rear motor failure.

It may have cost another half million$$ to develop and test the software that allows an AWD car to turn into a FWD or RWD car with motor failure, and given the inherent reliability of the Model 3 drive units was probably a complete waste of money, but you can bet Elon is gonna brag about how good the AWD is because they have inherently higher margins than the RWD. This isn't some cheap, penny-pinching car here, Elon spared no expense and the Dual Motor car is worth the high price tag because he didn't cut corners. And he wants the world to know it.

Or you can choose to believe that Elon knew the drive motors were so unreliable he has to make up the excuse that if one motor won't get you there the other will.

I understand why they did it. I'm sure the engineers told him the Model S drive units would last for hundreds of thousands of miles too. I thought it was a bad idea to call attention to that fact. I agree it does appear that the Model 3 drive units will be much more reliable.

 

[Oil4AsphaultOnly]

Has there been any model 3 fires, since this thread died?

 

[sixela]

When comparing ICE fires I think it important to be honest and admit the average age of ICE on the road is 12 years old and there are a lot of cars that are neglected, poorly repaired, even rusted to the point of reduced structural integrity. Yes new cars catch fire too but I don't think we can sort those out from the total numbers.

In those statistics the average is not exactly a robust metric. The median is far from 12 years (IIRC even in the US only 15% of cars are older than 12 years).

But if you look at fires reported, the statistics are even younger; it looks like there are a lot of very old cars that push up the average and don't catch fire at all (of course there is some survivor bias as well: a car burned down when it's 3 years old will not make it to 12 years; but younger cars are probably overreported in the statistics because people who drive a lot tend to have younger cars; yes, driving a car makes it more dangerous ;-) ).

If you look at the stats of vehicle age for fires reported, I don't think there is a lot to support that age is a factor in the difference in safety observed between ICE and EV vehicles.

ICE vehicles are more complex, they use a flammable fuel that travels a lot and gets close to very warm parts, and need a lot of service (which increases the chances of someone messing them up). I think that's a much more likely explanation for the differences observed.

 

[StealthP3D]

ICE vehicles are more complex, they use a flammable fuel that travels a lot and gets close to very warm parts, and need a lot of service (which increases the chances of someone messing them up). I think that's a much more likely explanation for the differences observed.

I think a more likely explanation is that, despite all the noise and FUD to the contrary, Tesla is actually laser focussed on making the safest cars on the planet. Because they know the media will single out every incident.

Recently, a Tesla travelling at irresponsible speeds smashed into an ICE car. The ICE car caught on fire, not the Tesla. This is not unusual (that irresponsible drivers exist or that the ICE car catches on fire when the Tesla didn't). But the media focused on this story because there was a Tesla and it was travelling at a high rate of speed.

ICE cars have had over 100 years to make them more resistant to turning into a fireball but the manufacturer's don't want to spend the money to decrease fire risk further. Tesla has taken every practical step they could think of to reduce fire risk to a minimum and it's paying off handsomely!

 

[Earlian]

Has there been any model 3 fires, since this thread died?

I searched for it, but couldn't find. And we're on the road to 400k Model 3 out there.

ICE cars have had over 100 years to make them more resistant to turning into a fireball but the manufacturer's don't want to spend the money to decrease fire risk further.

Hm, well what can be done with batteries (fill anti-flammable ingredients into the Gas tank) is hard to do with combustion engines. I mean, the stuff they use has to burn. That is the whole concept of it.

What Tesla achieves here is damn impressive and another reason, why they'll lead the pack.
But you can't make scary, fuddy headlines out of this!

 

[cwerdna]

The early Model S motors had a design flaw that caused ALL of them to need replacing. Tesla recalled them under warranty.

Source of the bolded part?

The three or four Model 3 drive unit failures that I've been made aware of are different, they are manufacturing/assembly errors. And that's to be expected given the nature of the ramp.
...
And it's a very low failure rate. The Model 3 is designed as a modular car so, in these instances, they just unbolt the old drive unit and bolt a new one in. I think I've heard of three or four failures which is a very low rate considering they have made over 150 thousand of them.

Here's over a dozen: Shoddy quality and poor QC and missing parts.. + another "Car not Safe to Drive-- Pull over Safely".

As I posted before, I've been fairly active on MyNissanLeaf since mid-2011 (Leaf is still the world's best selling EV by cumulative sales and has been out since Dec 2010). I can't think of a single time a Leaf drive motor has been replaced for failure (loss of propulsion). I can't even think of 5 instances where they were replaced for noise. This is a stark contrast to what I've seen w/Model S drive units (I can point you three TMC members who've have had 7+ DU replacements each) w/mostly noise for the first years w/some failures sprinkled in, eventually dying down to failures + what we've seen w/the w/3, so far.

 

[Swampgator]

Source of the bolded part?


Here's over a dozen: Shoddy quality and poor QC and missing parts.. + another "Car not Safe to Drive-- Pull over Safely".

As I posted before, I've been fairly active on MyNissanLeaf since mid-2011 (Leaf is still the world's best selling EV by cumulative sales and has been out since Dec 2010). I can't think of a single time a Leaf drive motor has been replaced for failure (loss of propulsion). I can't even think of 5 instances where they were replaced for noise. This is a stark contrast to what I've seen w/Model S drive units (I can point you three TMC members who've have had 7+ DU replacements each) w/mostly noise for the first years w/some failures sprinkled in, eventually dying down to failures + what we've seen w/the w/3, so far.

What is your point? This thread is about battery fires, or lack thereof.

 

[cwerdna]

What is your point? This thread is about battery fires, or lack thereof.

I'm asking about source about the bolded part.

I'm also providing additional examples of DU failure so that folks are aware.

 

[timk225]

Tesla can't make the car perfect, but they have made it pretty damn good. But that's not enough for the media who lives on money from advertisements for oil companies and gasoline cars.

Give them half a reason and they will come out with pointing fingers, saying "See? See? We told you those electric cars were dangerous!!!!!".

Fake news.

 

[electrictorque]

Tesla can't make the car perfect, but they have made it pretty damn good. But that's not enough for the media who lives on money from advertisements for oil companies and gasoline cars.

Give them half a reason and they will come out with pointing fingers, saying "See? See? We told you those electric cars were dangerous!!!!!".

Fake news.

So true. This guy says it how it is.

 

[UrsS]

According to Goooooooogle as of May 17, 2018:
It says the 300,000 Teslas on the road have been driven a total of 7.5 billion miles, and about 40 fires have been reported. That works out to five fires for every billion miles traveled, compared to a rate of 55 fires per billion miles traveled in gasoline cars.