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No Model III until 2019?

Discussion in 'Model 3' started by MarcG, Nov 22, 2014.

  1. MarcG

    MarcG Active Member

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    #1 MarcG, Nov 22, 2014
    Last edited: Nov 22, 2014
    From Elon's latest blog about the gigafactory:

    The House Always Wins | Blog | Tesla Motors

    Hmmm, full production in 5 years. So, even if Tesla doesn't need "full production" to build the Model III, can we realistically expect them to build and deliver enough batteries to launch a production Model III before 2019?
     
  2. Model 3

    Model 3 Active Member

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    Yes.

    It has never been planed for the GF to reach full capacity until 2020, and it is not planed to get to full production of Gen-III until the same time. It was planed for the GF to start production in 2017, and start to produce Model 3 at about the same time - still in 2017. Lates new is that the first module of the GF may start producing batteries in 2016. Lets hope they can start the Model 3 production from the same year! :)
     
  3. green1

    green1 Active Member

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    As "Model 3" points out, full capacity of the gigafactory is not required for Model 3 construction. That said, I think anyone expecting the model 3 in 2017 hasn't taken a close look at the track record of Tesla motors when it comes to timelines...
     
  4. mspohr

    mspohr Active Member

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    I don't see how you jumped from this blog post on the economic incentives for the Gigafactory to postulate that Model III won't come until 2019.
    Everything I have seen is that the factory will start making batteries in 2017 and Model III could start then. Of course, there are lots of other factors that could influence Model III production but it shouldn't be for lack of batteries.
     
  5. Model 3

    Model 3 Active Member

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    Hehe, I have... But I'm counting on that Tesla now has more expreience then when they build their first - or second - "from the bottom up" car, and that the stake is much higher with the Model 3 then with the Model X. So I'm betting on that their track record will improve with the Model 3 :D (But no, I will not bet on 2016 production start ;) - but I'm hoping...)
     
  6. Yggdrasill

    Yggdrasill Active Member

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    If the Model 3 slips, that could be a big problem. That would mean they would need to dedicate all the batteries produced at the Gigafactory to other purposes. Some things they can do:

    - They can drop the price of the Model S/X to get increased demand.
    - They can roll out larger battery packs
    - They can outfit all the superchargers with batteries
    - They can try to unload as much as possible to Solar City

    But such measures will only work short term. The Gigafactory needs the Model 3 to be profitable.

    I would expect the Model 3 to be launched on time. That the other models have been delayed have had natural causes. For the Roadster, that was the first car they made, and they greatly underestimated the amount of work that needed to be done. For the Model S, the delay was mostly a result of deciding where to have the factory, and then getting NUMMI outfitted. Also, they really needed to build the organisation. For the Model X, I'm confident that if they had needed to launch the Model X now, they could have, but given that they have a limited supply of batteries, and no shortage of demand, they just focused on improvements to the Model S.
     
  7. RobStark

    RobStark Active Member

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    Tesla has more than doubled the number of employees since the Model S introduction to over 10k.

    The front drivetrain of the P85D will be the drivetrain of the base Model 3.

    No falcon doors,no pano roof, no automated door handles, no complex new technology on the base Model 3.

    I am pretty sure they will start deliveries in 2017. 10k or 100k deliveries in 2017 I am less confident about.
     
  8. Canuck

    Canuck Active Member

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    I'd say 2018 at the very earliest. We're already looking at late 2015 for "first" deliveries of the Model X. The battery factory won't be producing any batteries at that time and there are over 20K Model "X" orders currently, plus the Model S factory line will also be sucking up batteries. The key to a "cheap" Model 3 is a drop in battery prices and that likely won't happen until 2019. Tesla still has to build and staff the Model X and the battery production lines, get them running smoothly and efficiently, and then it can turn its focus to production of the Model 3. Given Tesla past track record, I bet on 2018 at the earliest for Model 3 but more likely 2019.

    But I'll be happy to be proved wrong on this prediction.
     
  9. RobStark

    RobStark Active Member

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    Again, Model X has AWD Falcon Doors etc.

    Tesla's track record was as a much smaller company. I just googled it, it June 2012 Tesla had just under 3000 employees. Elon gave an interview to a German TV show a few weeks ago in which he said Tesla now has over 10k employees.

    Tesla has filed paperwork with the SEC saying they will begin to manufacture battery cells in Nevada in 2016.

    Panasonic is still ramping up in Japan and they will be able to deliver enough batteries for 150k-200k Gen II vehicles (S & X) in 2017 and Tesla will not stop buying Japanese made cells once they start producing cells in the US.
     
  10. ecarfan

    ecarfan Well-Known Member

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    I agree with @RobStark: Tesla now has an experienced team in place that has designed and put into volume production an award-winning "built from the ground up" EV and is a far larger company than it was just two years ago. The Model 3 will be based on the proven technology already in use in the S/X. Tesla doesn't have to invent anything new for the 3, it just needs a cheaper battery pack and a much larger scale assembly line. My bet is that the Model 3 will go into production in 2017. The long term success of the company depends on the Model 3 being a success, and the sooner the better.
     
  11. Canuck

    Canuck Active Member

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    "just" is the key word... almost next month we're in 2015 and batteries are not getting any cheaper. In fact, demand drives prices up until the gigafactory has them rolling off the assembly line.


    Why? Tesla is not going anywhere anytime soon. For long term success the Model 3 must be rock solid. In my opinion, the long term success of the company means the more tried, proven and tested the better. I agree with you for a start up things must be rushed, but Tesla is past that now. Hence the Model X delays for these very reasons.

    Again, I hope to be proven wrong. I intend to buy a Model 3 when it comes out and I want one now! But time flies and 2017 just seems too soon to me.
     
  12. ecarfan

    ecarfan Well-Known Member

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    Why? Because at the present time most people I know consider Tesla a company that builds small numbers of expensive electric cars for rich people. That is not a formula for long term success.
     
  13. rtz

    rtz Member

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    The big question is the progress on Model 3. Is it already designed? What line will they build it on? If it's still years out; go ahead and build the line now instead of then?

    What's the hold up on Model X? Imagine a 2 door Model X... Or have those back doors just reverse open.

    Would be interesting from a cost standpoint to see a:

    2 door scaled down in size Model S bare bones(no options). Also the price difference between making it in steel or aluminum. 40 size pack? Some other battery format if their current pack style is truly so expensive.

    Here's just some random battery prices off the net for fun. Keep in mind these are yours and mine prices for low volume. Just think what Tesla's price would be:

    For sample battery $1.25USD/Ah.
    For order quantity below 10,000Ah, we offer the price at $1.18USD/Ah,
    For order quantity above 10,000Ah, we offer the price at $1.14USD/Ah,


    LiFE battery cell, 3.2V prismatic cells, 200AH,300AH, LiFePO4 Accu
     
  14. MarcG

    MarcG Active Member

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    From this video:

    Inside Tesla | KTLA

    So basically end of 2017 production start at the earliest for 2018 delivery, and that's best-case scenario. I still place it at 2019, but only time will really tell.
     
  15. Tasdevil

    Tasdevil Member

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    At least by the time the model 3 gets to Australia there will be revisions, additions and fixes. So we should get a better car than the first 100k cars.
     
  16. Model 3

    Model 3 Active Member

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    It's now at $180/kWh.


    ... and from this price you can subtract at least 30% when the GF is on-line. Probably closer to 50%.
     
  17. JRP3

    JRP3 Hyperactive Member

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    But increasing energy density drives prices down. When you get more energy storage in the same package the cost per kWh drops. Additionally the GF will be producing a cell that has about 30% more volume, so along with increased energy density from improved materials the assembly and packaging costs drop with the lower cell count. Plus the initial run of the Model 3 will probably have a lower margin.
     
  18. scaesare

    scaesare Active Member

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    Do you have any source for this?

    The Model S was began production in 2012, thus the design of the batteries had to have been completed well before then. A quick search on li-ion price trends turns up articles such as this from 2013 that says prices had been falling steadily for the two years preceding it:

    http://evobsession.com/ev-battery-prices-40-lower-than-in-2010/

    Remember, that even increasing power density at the same price has the same effect of allowing lower overall cost for the next product, even if the current design hasn't been revised to take advantage of the newer cells...
     
  19. Canuck

    Canuck Active Member

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    I was just basing it on the fact that the price of a Tesla has not fallen.
     
  20. Yggdrasill

    Yggdrasill Active Member

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    Tesla is trying to attain profitability. Don't expect any price cuts until the Model 3. (Even if the batteries were free.)
     

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