No Model X at the NAIAS

[n88]

The woosh you hear is the air rushing out of our collective expectations about a Model X Beta or better at the 2015 Detroit (NAIAS) Auto show, the only auto show Tesla attends.

No Model X at the Tesla display. Period.

Only a Model S with "executive" rear seats option... aka the Chinese rear seat option.

 

[timf]

We've known this was likely to be the case because:

1. There hasn't been a reveal event in California yet.
2. There was no NAIAS press conference scheduled.
3. The invitation to Tesla's NAIAS preview event made no mention of Model X.

 

[bonnie]

No whoosh sound from me. Historically, Tesla does reveals at their own events.

 

[BerTX]

I personally am starting to doubt the existence of ANY MX betas, and beginning to doubt if there ever will be a car released.

I can't believe it could be possible to keep it this well hidden.

The Model S production is limited by battery supply, and Tesla sells more of those than they can make. The MX would use the same battery. There just is no incentive to make the vehicle. I think when development of the MX was started, the enduring success of the MS was not anticipated. They thought a new model would be needed to maintain sales, and it just isn't.

I have a Model X reserved, but I don't think I'll ever get it. I won't buy a Model S -- it just isn't what I want.

Tesla is not losing any sleep over it.

 

[Yggdrasill]

Tesla will need the Model X to sustain the growth in production towards the end of the year. If they don't start selling the Model X, Tesla will become demand-limited.

So, I would expect a reaveal of the final version in the next 1-3 months, initial deliveries Q3 with significant volume in Q4. First deliveries overseas in Q1 2016.

 

[tdiggity]

I can't believe it could be possible to keep it this well hidden.

They have a huge mostly empty factory that they can drive the X's around in.

 

[Twiddler]

The brief, shady appearance of a very different model X on here a few days ago that was very quickly spotted and acted upon by Tesla suggests to me that if not a beta, what we saw was close.

 

[beck.christopher]

The brief, shady appearance of a very different model X on here a few days ago that was very quickly spotted and acted upon by Tesla suggests to me that if not a beta, what we saw was close.

What did this MX look like?

 

[anticitizen13.7]

What did this MX look like?

Difficult to say, because it was only part of a CAD diagram.

 

[BerTX]

The brief, shady appearance of a very different model X on here a few days ago that was very quickly spotted and acted upon by Tesla suggests to me that if not a beta, what we saw was close.

I'm sorry, but that was a drawing. I didn't see it, but it was a rendering, from what I hear. It may well be what was intended to be put into production, and Tesla is no doubt upset that it was released, but it is not a physical vehicle.

 

[markb1]

They have a huge mostly empty factory that they can drive the X's around in.

That is inadequate for testing a car that is to be in customers' hands in less that a year. They need to be doing real world testing at this point.

 

[Rifleman]

This is expected, but I am still disappointed to hear this, as I will be attending the show, and would have loved to see it.

 

[BerTX]

They have a huge mostly empty factory that they can drive the X's around in.

I have never been to the site, but I have seen it stated by others that it would be difficult to do extensive testing outdoors without someone who really wants to see the MX catching a spy shot. There are LOTS of people who want to see it.

I think the car would have to be out and driving to meet the release target currently in place -- but I could be wrong.

 

[Nubo]

I personally am starting to doubt the existence of ANY MX betas, and beginning to doubt if there ever will be a car released.

I can't believe it could be possible to keep it this well hidden.

The Model S production is limited by battery supply, and Tesla sells more of those than they can make. The MX would use the same battery. There just is no incentive to make the vehicle. I think when development of the MX was started, the enduring success of the MS was not anticipated. They thought a new model would be needed to maintain sales, and it just isn't.

I have a Model X reserved, but I don't think I'll ever get it. I won't buy a Model S -- it just isn't what I want.

Tesla is not losing any sleep over it.

They shut down the factory this past Summer to ready the production line and they have made definitive statements to the Media. We can debate whether they "need" to produce a Model X in regards to their battery supply but they certainly DO need to produce it in terms of living up to public expectations.

Tesla is still very much a start-up company and living on momentum. Giving up on Model X at this late date would be a severe blow to their momentum and their ability to attract investment, complete the Gigafactory, etc... There might also be ramifications from a regulatory standpoint regarding their "guidance" to the investment markets. I can't see them deliberately walking into that hornet's nest even if it does mean splitting a limited battery supply between 2 models.

I do seem to also recall that they were expecting significant improvements to the battery supply situation for 2015.

 

[Trev Page]

No whoosh sound from me. Historically, Tesla does reveals at their own events.

^This. Tesla has taken a lot of stuff from Apple's playbook, including product introductions. They get way more media coverage when they do their own thing.

 

[TexasEV]

Tesla would no more debut the Model X at the Detroit Auto Show than Apple would debut its new product at CES. Why be just one in the crowd when you can have all the media attention yourself at the time and place of your choosing?

Edit- was typed the same time as the above post. Great minds think alike?

 

[BerTX]

Tesla will need the Model X to sustain the growth in production towards the end of the year. If they don't start selling the Model X, Tesla will become demand-limited.

So, I would expect a reaveal of the final version in the next 1-3 months, initial deliveries Q3 with significant volume in Q4. First deliveries overseas in Q1 2016.

I disagree. Tesla never was even close to being demand limited. They, too thought they would be, which is why they started international sales far before they should have. They still can't make enough Model S volume to cover the US market, much less the international market.

They were wrong about the sales of the Model S, and I'm sure they are delighted.

 

[ecarfan]

The woosh you hear is the air rushing out of our collective expectations about a Model X Beta or better at the 2015 Detroit (NAIAS) Auto show, the only auto show Tesla attends.

No "whoosh" from me. I never believed Tesla would show the X at the 2015 NAIAS show. Not their style. They will have their own reveal soon at the Hawthorne facility, is my guess.

And yes, Tesla very likely has already built multiple X prototypes and has kept them from being seen even though they are driving them. Remember, the X is built on the S Dual Motor chassis! They are not creating a completely new vehicle. The hard part is done.

 

[tdiggity]

That is inadequate for testing a car that is to be in customers' hands in less that a year. They need to be doing real world testing at this point.

I agree. But, I think they can a lot under their own roof before they get them out on the public roads. It really depends on how many parts are similar to the S. The more in common, the less time they'll need to test outdoors.

 

[BerTX]

They shut down the factory this past Summer to ready the production line and they have made definitive statements to the Media. We can debate whether they "need" to produce a Model X in regards to their battery supply but they certainly DO need to produce it in terms of living up to public expectations.

Tesla is still very much a start-up company and living on momentum. Giving up on Model X at this late date would be a severe blow to their momentum and their ability to attract investment, complete the Gigafactory, etc... There might also be ramifications from a regulatory standpoint regarding their "guidance" to the investment markets. I can't see them deliberately walking into that hornet's nest even if it does mean splitting a limited battery supply between 2 models.

I do seem to also recall that they were expecting significant improvements to the battery supply situation for 2015.

I do not believe that they will state that the MX is scrapped. I expect there to be further delays, which will not be as harmful.