Here's my guess as to how this "$35k Model 3" deal all shakes out.
- Tesla continues to be nebulous about the timeline for the $35k Model 3. In fact, so nebulous, no one at Tesla will even say anything about a "$35k (before incentives) base Model 3" anymore. They will simply reference the "standard range" 3.
- the narrative of the "$35k (AFTER incentives) base Model 3" will continue to be pounded into people's heads, to slowly erode the memories of the $35k (before incentives) 3.
- Secretly, Tesla hopes more and more people that reserved on 31 March 2016 that planned to buy a base $35k, pre-incentive Model 3 all along request refunds or buy another Tesla product, reducing the numbers of people with reservations still waiting for the mythical $35k 3
- Tesla will use the expiration of the $3,750, then $1,875 credit to push people to buy whatever the lowest cost Model 3 being offered before tax incentives are completely gone (hopefully getting more 31 March '16 deposit holders to make the plunge).
- the Model Y will be unveiled, and deposit holders STILL holding out for the $35k Model 3 will be given the option of transferring the 3 deposit to get on the Y reservation list
- FINALLY, when the number of $35k Model 3 deposit holders is shrunken to a small enough number, Elon will announce that "due to a lack of demand", the $35k Model 3 will not be produced, but for those still holding deposits from 2016, they will be honored and a very limited number of $35k Model 3s will finally be produced.