No more 90 Battery, 100 price cut coming?

[chris5639]

For those who think tesla will pass the savings on to the consumer... I applaud them for believing so and living in their fantasy world. But I am a realist. If they can sell the cars at the current price there is 0 incentive for them to lower price even if the get rid of the 90s as an option and streamline production. Tsla is a for profit company not a nonprofit. If they stop selling the 100s at current price due to low demand then it warrants a price drop.

So lets summarize:
High sales ---> NO PRICE DROP

Low sales ---> potential price drop.

Completely agree. Which is why I made previously made the statement,
"That's not to say there isn't room for Tesla to drop the price but I think it would have to come at a lower profit margin. If Tesla believes they can make up the difference with more volume then I think they would be motivated to drop the price."

The only difference between what you said and what I said is that yours is reactive. If sales drop, lower price. My statement is proactive. If we want more future sales, lowering the price may bring in more buyers. There's already precedence here. Tesla dropped the price of their S 75 and X 75. I believe they wanted to convert the model 3 buyers and I believe it worked. It wasn't about good will, it was about business. So, no, there's no fantasy here.

I do A LOT of reading on Tesla. Probably too much. As many of you may have read, there's been several articles that suggest Tesla is disappointed with the sales volume of the model X, how Tesla is missing out on the current SUV boom, how there's no utility in Tesla's SUV. One even stated that Tesla is disappointed with the X making up 40% of Tesla's total sales. But ultimately, no one knows Tesla's current marketing and sales strategy but Tesla.

I know how it sounds. Since I have an order in flight, I'm hoping for a price drop. While that may be true, I'm certainly not counting on it. I make my purchase based on a price I can live with. Do I think the markup on the 100 over the 75 is too much? Absolutely. I already did the math. Despite the math, I chose the 100D for the reasons I already stated.

 

[Saghost]

I am just hoping when it's time to replace my X90D (~2 years), I will be able to drive to SF on one charge with my X. Is that notion to far fetched or would a 400+ mile range be feasible?

I don't think that'll happen in two years - unless Tesla finds a way to improve efficiency in the car, you're talking about at least a ~135 kWh pack, a 35% increase in energy density from the current best production version.

In five years there's a good chance they'll get there, but I have my doubts about two years.

And, of course, that assumes Tesla sees the value/market in offering extremely long range versions at a point when they'll have Superchargers every fifty miles or so.

 

[boonedocks]

+1 for the no's. I believe the price would have remained the small 100 kWh $3,000 increase over the 90kWh at introduction if that was the intention.

 

[by74]

If they discontinue the 90, then the 75 is probably on its way out, too, though it may be a few months yet before it gets replaced by a ~85 built with fourteen '100' modules.

I can't imagine that they'll keep both types of modules under manufacture indefinitely - certainly that's never been a Tesla pattern before.

Of course, we also have the 2170 conversion waiting in the wings, which might shake things up more...

I'm wondering about the same thing. 75 to 100 is too much a gap and discontinuing the 90 can be a great opportunity to unify the cell modules, which is on their favor. 85 and 100 can be a good line and they won't bother to anti sell model 3 anymore since the battery capacities are in different range

 

[Troy]

I don't think there will be any price drop because of the following reasons:

1. The Model S and X still use the 18650 cells which cost more than the Gigafactory cells. A price drop is unlikely until they switch to 2170 cells. I don't expect this to happen in 2017.
2. The Model S/X production line it not as automated as the Model 3 production line (Source). Until they update the production line, a price drop is unlikely.
3. Tesla is trying to reach 30% gross margin (Source: click here and check out the list of items in the middle or the article). They are around 28% right now.

 

[whitex]

One other thing to consider. If 90's are gone and 100's stay at the current price, anyone wanting a car under $100K will have to go with a 75D. Another way to put it, the segment of buyers who pick 90D today will split between some going to 75D and some going to 100D. Not sure what the profit on the 3 cars is, but it would be interesting to calculate what the required ratio of 75:90 would have to be for Tesla to break even in terms of profit, and then in terms of sales.

The current price jump of 25% from 75D to 100D is going to send a lot of people down the 75 path. Btw, 75 is quite sufficient range wise for most people. We have two Model S's, 75D and P85D and guess what, 75D has a higher rated range! so, if P85D range was ok for people, 75D does it today.

 

[Shock-On-T]

I dont think they will reduce the price anytime soon as it will cause a snowball effect... I have a 90 on order,, if they lowered the price of the 100 then I would cancel my 90.... If they reduce the price it will be in 3 months once all of the 90's have been delivered.

Don't worry, they'll lower the price two days after you take delivery.
Tesla-style!

 

[X Fan]

I am just hoping when it's time to replace my X90D (~2 years), I will be able to drive to SF on one charge with my X. Is that notion to far fetched or would a 400+ mile range be feasible?

Only if the second generation sunshade doubles as a solar power generator

 

[jbcarioca]

I don't think that'll happen in two years - unless Tesla finds a way to improve efficiency in the car, you're talking about at least a ~135 kWh pack, a 35% increase in energy density from the current best production version.

In five years there's a good chance they'll get there, but I have my doubts about two years.
....

They have had some increase in energy density, albeit small, with the new battery packs with partial silicon anodes. Chemistries are also different in the new 2170 cells, even though the precise differences are not revealed. I do not find it unlikely that Tesla/Panasonic could have found a 35% increase in energy density. Further, the effectively energy per kg will have increased substantially be the dramatic decreases in wiring and passive losses, some of which will be in Model 3 at launch, more of which will be in Model Y and revisions of X and S. of at least equal relevance is the increased lifespan and reduced charging sensitivities that have resulted from Jeff Dahn's group.

Net: I'm confident Tesla will be there within two years. Whether they build a ~135kWh pack or not is another question. The Tesla Semi reveal probably will tell us some useful information about that question.

 

[AmpedRealtor]

I'd say this is paving the way for a 120 kWh battery. If I were in the market for a P or 100D and could wait, I would probably hold off to see if a larger capacity battery is forthcoming. Tesla will likely be completely redesigning the interior of the S and X in the next 6-12 months anyway, and the S/X should be receiving the new, higher capacity cells later this year. Lots of changes coming, I think, in the next year that might be worth waiting for.

 

[Saghost]

I'd say this is paving the way for a 120 kWh battery. If I were in the market for a P or 100D and could wait, I would probably hold off to see if a larger capacity battery is forthcoming. Tesla will likely be completely redesigning the interior of the S and X in the next 6-12 months anyway, and the S/X should be receiving the new, higher capacity cells later this year. Lots of changes coming, I think, in the next year that might be worth waiting for.

Also Xavier, and maybe with it a third generation of AP sensors (if Tesla has figured out that they'd benefit from other sensors, then when they switch to the fancy new processor is a logical time to add them.)

Those are the three things I'm waiting for before I try to see if I can afford an upgrade - 2170 cells, Xavier, and the interior change (hopefully with HUD...) I expect to see all of them by the middle of next year, but we'll see.

 

[Xolt]

There is a good chance of a price drop on the S cars as that platform is aging. The reason wouldn't have much to do with battery cost but rather price point differential between battery models. The S75D is the largest volume car at this point with the 90's and 100's having better profit margins. With too much price spread they loose sales of higher margin cars and increase sales of less profitable ones. It's just a simple marketing game while trying to not look like one. Luxury car builders do it all the time as the life of a platform reaches its end by including high profit features at no cost to extend sales. Tesla is already following that same pattern and will continue.

 

[gaswalla]

Nah.... Does Mercedes drop their prices ' because the S-class is aging?'.

 

[kort677]

I think that the model 3 will take a lot of sales from the S and that the 3 platform with a larger battery and a upgraded AP system will become the flagship

 

[AmpedRealtor]

Tesla plans on forcing people who want a power lift gate to buy Model S and X. Model 3 won't come with a power lift gate - lame! That's a lot of money to pay for a power lift gate.

 

[Saghost]

Tesla plans on forcing people who want a power lift gate to buy Model S and X. Model 3 won't come with a power lift gate - lame! That's a lot of money to pay for a power lift gate.

Keep in mind, the 3 has a Trunk, not a hatchback. I don't think very many sedans in that price class have a powered trunk...

 

[oktane]

Most likely there will be a price cut.

 

[Destiny1701]

Nah.... Does Mercedes drop their prices ' because the S-class is aging?'.

Yes. BMW certainly does at the end of a lifecycle. Often they will throw in M sport and premium packages for free to liquidate inventory and take the hit on the upgrades of around 12-15k. Base price will remain the same but upgrade costs severely discounted. Can't see this happening anyway until model S is going through full redesign ie. 2019/20

 

[K-MTG]

Only if the second generation sunshade doubles as a solar power generator

Yes please!!!

 

[FlyF4]

With Tesla saying as of 6/8 the 90 battery pack will no longer be available, do you think a price cut is on the way for the 100, similar to the 60/75 situation a few weeks ago?

You should be thinking the opposite. Price increase on options. Base price not dropping.