No Plans to got to 2170 for S/X

[ecarfan]

It seems highly unlikely Tesla would introduce ultrafast charging for the Model 3 - without introducing it in their more expensive Model S and X vehicles

I would phrase it as "It is not possible that Tesla would introduce faster Supercharging on the Model 3 before the S/X" as Elon has been crystal clear that the S/X will always get the latest and greatest technology before the 3. Which is why I have come to believe that all the discussion about the 2170 battery having new faster charging capabilities to be extremely unlikely.

There was a rumor started that the new cells had the ability to charge at a much faster rate than the 16850's.

A rumor started leading to unfounded speculation? On TMC? Say it ain't so...

 

[DocZ]

I think the most likely scenario is that 2170 cells are in fast superior to current cells, but will be software limited in the Model 3 until they can come to the S/X in a year or so. I'd imagine they're still contractually bound to 18650 for quite some time, plus dont want to invest resources into redesigning the pack just yet.

 

[sandpiper]

I would phrase it as "It is not possible that Tesla would introduce faster Supercharging on the Model 3 before the S/X" as Elon has been crystal clear that the S/X will always get the latest and greatest technology before the 3. Which is why I have come to believe that all the discussion about the 2170 battery having new faster charging capabilities to be extremely unlikely.
A rumor started leading to unfounded speculation? On TMC? Say it ain't so...

Maybe product testing has determined that the 2170s can't handle the demands of high output vehicles without degradation? There ratio of surface to volume on the 2170 is lower, and so it will be more difficult to pull heat out rapidly. Maybe the 18650 will stay the format of choice for high output cars?

 

[AmpedRealtor]

Maybe product testing has determined that the 2170s can't handle the demands of high output vehicles without degradation? There ratio of surface to volume on the 2170 is lower, and so it will be more difficult to pull heat out rapidly. Maybe the 18650 will stay the format of choice for high output cars?

That's not possible because performance versions of the Model 3 will be launched next year. Those will be "high output" cars that will also use the 2170 cells.

 

[Reciprocity]

Elon's tweet was very clear if you read it through the Elon musk translator. He States no plans for conversion then says 2170 is not about performance, it's about cost savings. What company on this planet does not have plans to optimize profits by cutting costs? Elon would never tell us before it happened as to not cause people to cancel their orders and wait even if there is no performance advantages because people would assume there are.

My guess is that 2170 will come right around the time when fed tax credits phase out starting mid 2018. My guess is that they will use the cost savings to either update the interiors or cut prices. I think they will also increase the size of the biggest battery to maintain dominance in range an further target S/X more upscale and letting 3 take on c class and e class level cars, all the way up to BMW M3 and base 5 series/E class.

 

[sandpiper]

Maybe product testing has determined that the 2170s can't handle the demands of high output vehicles without degradation? There ratio of surface to volume on the 2170 is lower, and so it will be more difficult to pull heat out rapidly. Maybe the 18650 will stay the format of choice for high output cars?

Just speculating... "High output" is not defined. A 3.5 second 0-60 time is still high performance, and I don't think they want the M3 to upstage the S. Maybe the 2170s can't handle the output required to get the 2.5 second ludicrous level performance? Recall that there have been issues of late with Tesla restricting the P90D to protect the battery.

Maybe I'm completely wet on this. But it seems intuitively possible.

 

[randvegeta]

Recall that there have been issues of late with Tesla restricting the P90D to protect the battery.

I think we are all getting a little spoiled by how well Teslas perform in terms of acceleration.

It was not long ago that anything below 7s for a 0-60mph time was considered quick, and anything under 6s was considered sports car territory.

I have a 2014 Model S 60 which can 'only' do a 0-60 time of 5.9s, Considerably faster than any sedan or hatchback I've owned, and pretty much on par with an old Jag XK8 I used to drive.

Most cars will achieve 0-60 in between 8 and 11 seconds, and that is generally perfectly acceptable in the ICE world. The Model 3, being a care for the masses, really has no need to be significantly faster, and for the money, a 0-60 time of sub 7 seconds is more than reasonable. If software limiting the power ultimately extends battery life, improved overall efficiency, and increases range, then I think this would be the most sensible thing to do.

Honestly speaking, I almost never floor it in my S 60. There is just no need 99% of the time, and if I do, it zaps my range, meaning I can only do that comfortably when I know for a fact I won't need the range.

 

[tga]

Pardon my ignorance for not knowing this but what's so special about the 2170 cells?

Jeff

Nothing. IMHO, it's just people confusing physical form factor with cell chemistry.

 

[sandpiper]

Nothing. IMHO, it's just people confusing physical form factor with cell chemistry.

The geometry should allow somewhat higher capacity packs. The cells are 7-8% taller. In the same under-floor area, a 100 kwh pack should become a 108, assuming no further effects from larger diameter or potentially improved chemistry.

 

[tga]

The geometry should allow somewhat higher capacity packs. The cells are 7-8% taller. In the same under-floor area, a 100 kwh pack should become a 108, assuming no further effects from larger diameter or potentially improved chemistry.

Yes, slight improvements, but not a doubling of capacity, 350kw charging, or other orders of magnitude improvements people seem to expect from the 2170. It's really a *meh* - *shrugging shoulders*

 

[sandpiper]

Yes, slight improvements, but not a doubling of capacity, 350kw charging, or other orders of magnitude improvements people seem to expect from the 2170. It's really a *meh* - *shrugging shoulders*

If anything, the larger cell geometry makes cooling, and therefore higher speed charging more difficult. But, perhaps Tesla has some secret sauce in the chemistry or pack design that they're including with the 2170 cells, that improves further upon some of these things. The major improvement, I expect, is strictly cost.

 

[scaesare]

Yes, slight improvements, but not a doubling of capacity, 350kw charging, or other orders of magnitude improvements people seem to expect from the 2170. It's really a *meh* - *shrugging shoulders*

I agree. It's the chemistry that really matters. Packaging has much less impact at these sizes.

I suspect the 2170 form factor has much more to do with ease and efficiencies of pack construction, than it has to do with any performance/capacity metrics.

 

[henderrj]

We speculated some time ago that the S and X wouldn't see the 2170 for at least a year or more. So no big surprise here.

A new speculation on the version 3 supercharger. I think that's probably for the semis, not for any of the cars. At least not for a few more years. Let's see if I'm right on this one too.

 

[AnxietyRanger]

I would phrase it as "It is not possible that Tesla would introduce faster Supercharging on the Model 3 before the S/X" as Elon has been crystal clear that the S/X will always get the latest and greatest technology before the 3. Which is why I have come to believe that all the discussion about the 2170 battery having new faster charging capabilities to be extremely unlikely.

Nah.

Elon says many things, many of which are not really true in the end. We know this well enough by now.

I wouldn't say it is not possible Tesla introduce faster Supercharging on the Model 3 before the S/X, because Elon has been crystal clear that the S/X will always get the latest and greatest technology before the 3...

Elon might well go back on that word, would the situation dictate it, and find some rationalization for it - or simply not explain it at all (E.g. I believe Elon/Tesla never commented on removing the folding from 6/7 seater Model X, after earlier/then-recent promises to include it.)

The reason why I expect your point to be true, though, is that I agree protecting Model S/X sales will be important for Tesla for the near and medium term, and thus it would seem unlikely they'd introduce something visibly different for Model 3 before Model S/X.

Make no mistake, the 21-70's in Model 3 will be next-gen, though. The cells in the Model S/X during this time will thus very likely be inferior to the Model 3 cells. Tesla will just probably not mention it in any way at this time.

Over time we'll know what the pros and cons of 21-70's are, but I think the claims of "nothing" and "just cost" will be proven very wrong over that time.

 

[AmpedRealtor]

Elon says whatever is convenient at the time to keep orders going and to hit quarterly numbers. The Model 3 already has improved, newer bits than the Model S - it has coat hangers, in-door cup holders, and adjustable seat belts. All of those things are missing in Model S. So unless Tesla is planning on adding those things to Model S prior to Model 3 release, Model 3 is already better in some respects.