TMC is an independent, primarily volunteer organization that relies on ad revenue to cover its operating costs. Please consider whitelisting TMC on your ad blocker and becoming a Supporting Member. For more info: Support TMC

No Plans to take X, S (or 3) above 100kWh

Discussion in 'Model S' started by sdorn, Feb 7, 2017.

  1. ThisIsTrue

    ThisIsTrue Re-member

    Joined:
    Nov 29, 2016
    Messages:
    584
    Location:
    'Western Slope' Colorado
    AKA the "Osborne Effect" -- which took down a forward-thinking company led by a strong personality.

    Osborne effect - Wikipedia
     
    • Informative x 1
  2. brianman

    brianman Burrito Founder

    Joined:
    Nov 10, 2011
    Messages:
    17,176
    The moment the 140 kWh is announced people will post "and when is 150?" Hence my assertion of the generalized request for "infinity".
     
    • Like x 2
  3. brianman

    brianman Burrito Founder

    Joined:
    Nov 10, 2011
    Messages:
    17,176
    Can you give some more specifics, namely your start city and destination city for that adventure?
     
  4. Canuck

    Canuck Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Nov 30, 2013
    Messages:
    6,197
    Location:
    South Surrey, BC
    All he said was "no plans" and many here have reached like he said "never". I have "no plans" to change homes but I'm certain I won't be living in the house I am now forever. Tesla just released the non-P 100 in the last few weeks. They packed those batteries in so tight they had to change the cooling system to accommodate them all. Plus, they have to work on getting AP2.0 up to par, on the Model 3, on the battery factory, and so much more. So there's no plans for a bigger battery at the moment. That's all.

    I actually found it quite encouraging that he added "(or 3)" in his tweet. That almost makes it seem like the 3 could have a 100 option but it makes no sense to me how they can cram that many batteries into a smaller car. I guess a change in size and chemistry of the cell may allow for it which is encouraging.
     
  5. blackscraper

    blackscraper Member

    Joined:
    Jan 2, 2015
    Messages:
    172
    Location:
    Richmond Hill Ontario
    I am having a day trip from Toronto to Algonquin park which is 250KM away. and I don't want to waste half an hour charging up on the way back since it will be a long day. Such trips are rather common.
     
  6. bonaire

    bonaire Active Member

    Joined:
    Aug 24, 2013
    Messages:
    2,443
    Location:
    USA
    You can drive an EV 300-350+ days a year and rent an ICE for long trips that require unknown charging conditions or extreme cold. Or own a standby ICE or just use EV for the 200+ commute days a year. All sorts of recipes for a family involved in the EV culture.
     
  7. brianman

    brianman Burrito Founder

    Joined:
    Nov 10, 2011
    Messages:
    17,176
    You have superchargers at Barrie and Huntsville along your route, roughly 1/3rd of the way for each leg of the trip. If this level of supercharging convenience isn't enough for a driver, then yes such a driver isn't well suited for Tesla ownership. This route is doable even in a Model S 40 kWh.

    It's like showing up on an ICE forum and complaining because your "allowed idle time in the garage with the door closed" isn't more than a few minutes. Seriously?
     
    • Like x 2
  8. lklundin

    lklundin Active Member

    Joined:
    Oct 10, 2014
    Messages:
    2,071
    Location:
    Munich
    Yes.

    However, a charging power so high that it makes 350 kW seem like a children's toy is actually a compelling argument _against_ batteries above 100 kWh.

    You see, if you can bring the SoC of your 100 kWh battery from zero to 50% in 5 minutes, you do not want to pay more money just to lug a heavier battery around.
     
    • Like x 3
  9. bonaire

    bonaire Active Member

    Joined:
    Aug 24, 2013
    Messages:
    2,443
    Location:
    USA
    Exactly - that is the benefit of these faster chargers. 100kWh appeals to those driving "far, a lot" who don't need to spend time at supercharger restaurants or sitting. But 80kWh charged at even 200KW is pretty quick versus the current day. 200KW is 600 miles per charging hour, 300 miles in a half hour and with taper, probably just 150 miles in 15 minutes which works well for most people. Using 3 miles per kWh. Consumers who go into a convenience store for their morning coffee and fuel will spend 2-5 minutes fueling and 5-10 minutes in a store. If they could pull up, plug in, charge for 10 minutes and head out, that's close to today's morning routines and yet they wouldn't even need that due to being able to leave home fully charged.

    The 350KW is kind of a straw man in that it isn't necessary for EVs to take-off. But it is a compelling marketing factor. I wouldn't want to charge today's chemistries of Li-Ion batteries at almost 4C for 100kWh and 5C for 70kWh on a hot day. With today's chemistries requiring heat-based tapering (or cold tapering as well) I doubt that current cars will be allowed to go to 350KW. In fact, I think 350KW is for a dual-head A/B setup with each car taking a full 175KW without "sharing the SC nameplate rate" as they do now.
     
    • Informative x 1
  10. calisnow

    calisnow Active Member

    Joined:
    Oct 11, 2014
    Messages:
    2,915
    Location:
    Los Angeles
    I third or fourth the need for larger than 100 kwhr batteries for winter. This California boy is spending this winter in Wisconsin and I've seen what REAL cold does to batteries and range.
     
  11. calisnow

    calisnow Active Member

    Joined:
    Oct 11, 2014
    Messages:
    2,915
    Location:
    Los Angeles
    My question is how soon will we see this faster charging capability? 12 months? Less? Longer?
     
  12. ohmman

    ohmman Maximum Plaid Member

    Joined:
    Feb 13, 2014
    Messages:
    8,372
    Location:
    North Bay, CA
    Musk said more than 100 "maybe" on the pickup. I'd argue it's needed on the pickup and on the X, for those choosing to tow. Range with a travel trailer is already about half of EPA, and that's going 55mph in ideal conditions.
     
    • Informative x 2
  13. mspohr

    mspohr Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jul 27, 2014
    Messages:
    5,609
    Location:
    California
    I'm sure Tesla has lots of different projects. Some of them might make it to production. However, no sense in advertising stuff you might not make and confusing people. When it's ready to be a product, announce it.
     
  14. ecarfan

    ecarfan Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Sep 21, 2013
    Messages:
    16,760
    Location:
    San Mateo, CA
    You may not be aware, but we have 12,000+ ft elevation mountain ranges in California with 8,000+ ft passes and I am familiar with the white stuff you experience many months out of the year. It always baffles me when some people assume that California residents have no idea what snow is.

    Yes, a 150kWh battery would be very useful for some people. As I mentioned, I would love it for towing a camper trailer. But it is unrealistic to think that it is going to be made available in the next several years. We are just at the beginning of the EV revolution. EVs cannot yet meet all use cases. But Tesla has significantly broadened their market appeal in just a few years, and of course more improvements are coming in the years ahead.
     
  15. Uncle Paul

    Uncle Paul Active Member

    Joined:
    Nov 1, 2013
    Messages:
    2,892
    Location:
    Canyon Lake,CA
    Intense cold weather also negatively effects ICE vehicles.

    Many is the time in Michigan that my ICE cars would refuse to start at all in sub zero temps. When cold the motor was so hard to turn over and the battery so degraded by the cold that the car would only crank weakly for a few seconds before giving up all together. Tow trucks would be so overwhelmed that it might take several hours for them to get to you for a jump.

    At those times I would have loved to be driving a Tesla, and not complain that it would only go 120 miles before running low on juice.

    For some reason we expect these first generation of new electric cars to be better than anything else in the world...and at all possible circumstances.

    The cars are currently pretty good, and getting better all the time.
     
    • Like x 2
    • Informative x 1
  16. lklundin

    lklundin Active Member

    Joined:
    Oct 10, 2014
    Messages:
    2,071
    Location:
    Munich
    As user bonaire pointed out, the current battery chemistry would have a bit of a problem with such a high charging speed, of e.g . 5C.

    Others will surely know better, but I find it highly unlikely that existing Tesla vehicles could be upgraded to accept a charging power well above 350 kW.

    Also, it would seem strange to me if the simple, low-cost Model 3 came out with a charging capability three times faster than the current Model S/X.

    So there is plenty of room for speculation...
     
  17. ShockOnT

    ShockOnT ⚡️⚡️⚡️⚡️⚡️

    Joined:
    Jun 26, 2016
    Messages:
    2,840
    Location:
    Sydney
    Good, 100 is plenty.
    Better to focus on charging rate, supercharger expansion, AP and UI software etc.
     
    • Disagree x 1
  18. Electroman

    Electroman Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Aug 18, 2012
    Messages:
    5,385
    Location:
    TX
    he could have just kept quiet. Why even answer that question?

    Absolutely. A charging station in every exit and every intersection doesn't negate the need to have larger range. On a cold day with wind blowing, it is ridiculous to be stopping at every 150 miles for a full hour for a full charge. I want to to do a day trip from Dallas to Austin and back with just one stop and one charge. You simply can't do that unless you have 300 miles of cold weather range.

    In fact there should be a standard that auto manufacturers should specify a cold weather range in their sticker. 65 mph at 70F on a level ground doesn't mean anything when it comes to real world driving and a need to have a buffer.

    but.. but.. you can refill an ICE car in 10 minutes. A full refill on a Tesla still takes 90 minutes.
     
    • Like x 1
  19. TexLaw

    TexLaw Member

    Joined:
    Jan 29, 2017
    Messages:
    450
    Location:
    Bellaire, TX
    It sounds like:

    --As pointed out, Elon said "no plans," not "no intent" or "100 is the max forever and ever." There is a difference.

    --Range still can be extended with a 100 pack through other efficiency increases.

    --Cold weather and rural living is a serious problem for some folks when it comes to getting or driving a Tesla. While that can be addressed through expanded and quicker charging, it currently prevents many from using their Tesla for some (even many) trips. Likewise, it also could easily prevent some from getting a Tesla where they could not afford to have a backup ICE. That's a problem for Tesla, since they never have marketed any Tesla as just something to get you around town. Anyone who only wanted that could just spend $9-10k on a used Leaf and have a touring/towing car on the side.

    Honestly, I don't know where I'm going with all this except that I doubt that Elon and the Elonettes can ignore the cold weather issue forever (or even for much longer). Considering the status of battery technology at the moment, it probably is better to focus on getting more and faster charging out there. As battery technology advances, it would come as no surprise to see a larger capacity pack. However, if charging becomes easy enough or range can be improved otherwise, then it may be largely unnecessary. It's not like you see ICEs come in different versions based on the size of the gas tank.
     
  20. scaesare

    scaesare Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Mar 14, 2013
    Messages:
    7,385
    Location:
    NoVA
    The issues impacting range are many:

    - Moderate to severe cold

    - Rain/snow

    - Keeping up with traffic on 70+ MPH highways

    - Wind

    - Elevation

    - Roof rack/cargo box

    - Hitch bike/cargo rack

    -Towing

    Just one of the above can turn a 300 mile range in to a 150-200 mile range. Add up 2-3 factors and you can lose nearly 2/3 of your range. And most people want allow a reasonable margin at the low end...pulling in to a supercharger with 0 miles left is a bit harrowing.

    Combine these issues with the fact that supercharging really is time-effective up to about 80% SOC or so and you are decrementing your range availability even further. Even faster charging chemistries will likely take just as long for the last 20% as the first 80%.

    Now not all of these are daily events, but typically rather issues on longer/road trips. But quite frankly, other 100 mile range EV's are well suited to being daily drivers as longs as you don't plan on road trips with them.

    Tesla is the first company to make a run at a no-compromises road vehicle with the Model S. And road trips with 1 or more of the above factors are common in a large percentage of Tesla's target global market.

    So I don't understand the "current pack size is sufficient, install more chargers instead" stance when that can require a charging stop every 2 hours for a significant number of use cases. Even with fast charge times (say 5C, which is ~3x current), that's still 20-30 minutes factoring in routing to many superchargers.

    That IS a compromise.
     
    • Like x 7

Share This Page

  • About Us

    Formed in 2006, Tesla Motors Club (TMC) was the first independent online Tesla community. Today it remains the largest and most dynamic community of Tesla enthusiasts. Learn more.
  • Do you value your experience at TMC? Consider becoming a Supporting Member of Tesla Motors Club. As a thank you for your contribution, you'll get nearly no ads in the Community and Groups sections. Additional perks are available depending on the level of contribution. Please visit the Account Upgrades page for more details.


    SUPPORT TMC