@scaesare - It's hard for many to understand because they haven't tried those scenarios. I myself didn't understand the cold weather challenges until I had to spend this winter in Wisconsin. @ecarfan - I spend winters in Mammoth (base elevation 8000') and I thought I understood cold. But I didn't - it doesn't get to 10-20 below zero Fahrenheit in Mammoth - which we had for 10-14 straight days here recently. At these below zero temps the seat heaters aren't enough. To conserve range I was bundled up like an Eskimo. My feet were frozen unless I put arctic boots on. Totally crazy. Even the car's air heater was insufficient. The cars have a ways to go. This isn't a small crowd there are entire states subject to these temps every winter + Canada. The 100 is almost there but I'm hoping for a 120 next year. Probably won't happen but maybe they'll ramp up battery capacity faster than we predict. I can hope.
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In these conditions, you don't need a Tesla with a bigger battery. You need a home in a warmer location......Just kidding
I am wondering though, as other have pointed out, Tesla is just prioritizing at this moment. Yes, there will be a bigger battery back. I am very confident. Otherwise, competitors will sense an opening and announce a 400 mile range. But at this time, Tesla is focusing on Model 3 and improving the charging infrastructure. I just did a 800 mile round trip in California and noticed that superchargers are spaced roughly 130-150 miles on most routes. Assuming the current state of CA superchargers is where Tesla wants to go with other states (with reasonable amount of Tesla owners) and Canada will that not solve most of the range issues, even in extremely cold weather with a 100D battery ?
Heat pumps don't help with cold weather range. Not proper cold. Heat pump should be seen as a way to improve overall efficiency and raise _average_ range.
No plans. Doesn't mean never. But Tesla needs to focus on Model 3 now. And stopping at 100kWh doesn't preclude the packs getting lighter, easier to manage and faster to charge.
Edmonton to Jasper
I would attempt this again in the winter only if there was a decent 60A+ charger, not even a supercharger, at some mid-point... say Edson or Hinton would be perfect.
The sad thing is Jasper and it's best accommodations are well-equipped with Tesla specific destination chargers. It's a tease. Jasper chamber of commerce needs to install a charger in Edson if that town seemingly can't afford to put up a public charger. (Nobody stays in Edson, it's a pass-through town.)
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How about a trailer extra-pack (on wheels) we can tow on long trips? Put say, 40 or 50 pack in there. What would that weigh?
Or ... dang.. I have to buy a Tesla pickup truck .. not my favorite style. But would "fit right in" here in Alberta.
Or ... dang.. I have to buy a Tesla pickup truck .. not my favorite style. But would "fit right in" here in Alberta.
Thanks for the thoughtful answers. It looks like it boils down to three factors: cold weather, poor charging infrastructure, and desire to road trip straight through.
I suspect that what we'll see is the next pack size increase based on chemistry improvements, not on stuffing more cells in. Since that's the next step it's time to spend development effort on some big things with wide benefits: more destination charging and mass adoption. For every one person who needs 200+ miles in one day regularly enough to make renting an ICE impractical, there are twenty who could actually work with a 200 mile practical range without a second thought. Right now they are likely being held back by the lack of destination charging and the lack of apartment/rental charging. The coolest thing about building out more charging is that we don't have to haul it around with us everywhere. The other EVs in our house are both not Teslas and thus have a much shorter range. For one way trips of twice their range with known charging situations at the other end, they are just as relaxing to take as the Model S.
For 100% ICE replacement, or even for 90% replacement, we certainly will need bigger battery options for at least some models. It makes more sense for any car chasing the EV marketplace as it exists right now to not even think about bigger batteries until EVs are 10% of the market or more, by which point hopefully the same size battery as the current 100 will have a 200 capacity, charge at 500 kW, and cost the same as the 60. In the meantime let's get a successful Model 3 out the door and introduce a million more people to the joys of electric motoring.
I suspect that what we'll see is the next pack size increase based on chemistry improvements, not on stuffing more cells in. Since that's the next step it's time to spend development effort on some big things with wide benefits: more destination charging and mass adoption. For every one person who needs 200+ miles in one day regularly enough to make renting an ICE impractical, there are twenty who could actually work with a 200 mile practical range without a second thought. Right now they are likely being held back by the lack of destination charging and the lack of apartment/rental charging. The coolest thing about building out more charging is that we don't have to haul it around with us everywhere. The other EVs in our house are both not Teslas and thus have a much shorter range. For one way trips of twice their range with known charging situations at the other end, they are just as relaxing to take as the Model S.
For 100% ICE replacement, or even for 90% replacement, we certainly will need bigger battery options for at least some models. It makes more sense for any car chasing the EV marketplace as it exists right now to not even think about bigger batteries until EVs are 10% of the market or more, by which point hopefully the same size battery as the current 100 will have a 200 capacity, charge at 500 kW, and cost the same as the 60. In the meantime let's get a successful Model 3 out the door and introduce a million more people to the joys of electric motoring.
I am well aware. I've lived on the west coast of the US. My experience is that snow really doesn't make a big difference unless there are significant accumulations on the road. Extreme cold (less than -20C) has far more dramatic effect on range. And unlike at -5C or -10C, it's just not possible to run with the heater off. The Tesla windshield ices up badly, and so you need to keep defrost going. At -25C, if you want reasonable comfort, you literally (no exaggeration) lose half of your range.
Even with superchargers, it is ridiculous to have to charge for an hour for every 2 hours of driving. And that is exactly what happens on a road trip in very cold temps. And without superchargers (still the case in a LOT of areas), you just aren't going. From end of November to early March, I usually take my wife's car for longer trips.
Of course there is a market for a smaller battery Tesla. But, Tesla needs to keep pushing for bigger batteries if the intent is to truly replace ICEs. This California "you don't need a bigger battery" mindset is counterproductive. Yes, it can't be done right now. But it needs to stay on the front burner. And I wish people from warmer climates or who are more urban would quit trying to tell me that I don't need one - simply because they don't. Yes, I bloody well need a bigger battery. And if Tesla doesn't produce one, eventually somebody else will, and then that's the car that I will buy.
I cannot tell you how many friends I have, who would consider a Tesla, but can't because the range is prohibitive. There are MANY.
Argh!!! Sydney, as in Sydney Australia? If so then I tell you what... I won't offer opinions on dodging kangaroos, and you don't offer opinions on the practicality of EVs in extreme cold weather!
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Surprised that the obvious answer to cold weather battery issues has not been raised. Global Warming. You see, as Tesla fan's we can have our cake and eat it too. ICE's and coal plants continue to push along global warming and that means that Canada will eventually become much more livable (ok, except for the parts that flood and who wanted to go there anyway, and don't start with me about polar bears-they can't even afford a model 3).
What we really need is faster global warming, if we want better range it is the fastest and only obvious solution
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What we really need is faster global warming, if we want better range it is the fastest and only obvious solution
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Elon is not silly enough to pull an Osborne and tell people a [insert a substantially higher kWh number here] battery is coming in 3-5 years and then watch people hold off for the next higher one.
The issue is, the market for the less expensive Model 3 is magnitudes larger than the relatively small size of the market that needs a larger battery.
Add to that, when you improve infrastructure, some of that market for large battery packs goes away.
There will always be some edge cases of people that need more range. But if the goal is to replace the largest percentage of gas cars with electric, you need to spend more of your effort going after the larger market.
We're not talking about edge cases. Right now, even if the prices were the same, the inconveniences of even a 100kwh EV are such that most people in the Northern US and certainly Canada, couldn't buy one as their only vehicle. Most people who are laying down a lot of money simply don't want to compromise. Yes, yes.. rent another car when you need it. Really? How many people want to rent a car to make a 600km road-trip to see family?
We're in a bit of an echo chamber here. We're a bunch of enthusiasts who are willing to live with the shortcomings. This is not so for the wider populace. My wife, who is relatively enthusiastic about technology, would simply not buy a Tesla, even if it were the same price as a similar ICE.
I'm not saying that they won't succeed with the current battery offerings. And clearly a 150kwh battery is not practical right now. But, if the goal is to replace the ICE, then we need to keep bigger batteries on the front burner. Too many times Elon has said - "we don't need a bigger battery". He should stop telling customers what they need and start asking what they need.
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It's the perceived need that is the barrier, not the actual need (and there is an actual need, which as you say, is smaller than the perceived need). I've shown my car in hundreds of shows and the number one complaint is "I want to drive from Dallas to Houston at 80-90 mph without stopping. I can do this easily in my current vehicle--why can't yours?" (80 mph is the speed limit). Depending upon where you live in the Metroplex, it's around 250-270 miles. At high speeds you're going to have to stop once. To do this an still have a reasonable amount of miles left (ten or twenty is not a reasonable amount), a 400 mile battery will be required.
Why not? He's done it in the past. He's previously said that batteries will slowly increase over time in the range of 5% per year. Of course he's not going to say "The 120D will be out in 6 months". That would be an Osborne situation. But simply stating that Tesla is committed to continuously increasing range as evolving technology permits is not going to do that.
I'm suspicious, when he makes these comments, that he's trying to gage public reaction.... to see if he gets crickets, and that that would validate a decision to pull resources from working to extend range.
I am steadfast that he's absolutely incorrect about this. Tesla can, probably, go a long way with the current (in my view) barely acceptable cold weather range. But they will miss out on a very large portion of the market. The need to keep increased range on the front burner.
You seem to have very strong feelings about this. You're repeating your point quite often, even several posts in a row. Yes, we agree. Cold weather really does need a bigger battery for ideal road trips. I don't see people disagreeing with you. Where we disagree is how important that is. Just counting America, hundreds of millions of people live in southern climates and the coasts where that extreme cold does not happen. Diverting engineering resources from mass sales to there to accelerate larger batteries may not make sense from either a business or mission perspective.
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