No recent VIN assignments?

[Nurkbonis]

Yep, I dug into the data and tried to mark what color and wheel corresponds with each 100 VINs from 5k - 10k. I should have tried to average the VIN assignment date per VIN batch as well, but didn't. The pattern is roughly: black, midnight silver, silver, red, blue, white in one set of wheels. They don't produce both sets of wheels in the same paint runs.

There are a few wonky spots where the pattern may have deviated a bit.

There are a few sets of gaps that have unreported vins: 75xx - 77xx, 83xx -87xx, 90xx - 93xx. Perhaps there is an explanation for these gaps, perhaps cars with these VINs were produced with a bad part and they are awaiting a swap out? Who knows...

Based on the color patterns, those will probably be:

75xx: white/ aero
76xx: white/aero or midnight silver/sport
83XX - 87XX: Black/Midnight Silver w/ Aero
90XX - 92XX: Blue w/ Aero

We have VINs in the 87xx - 89xx range:
87XX: Silver/Aero
88XX: Red/Aero
82xx: Midnight silver/Aero

The pattern gets a bit funky in spots, but 90xx - 93xx should be silver, red, blue, white with Aero.

The below is confirmed by VINs:
93xx: black/ sport
94xx: midnight silver/sport
95xx: midnight silver/sport
96xx: silver /sport
96xx: red / sport
97xx: red / sport
98xx: red / sport
99xx: blue/ sport

White with sport wheels should be the next batch registered after the 99xx blue/sport batch.

I am sitting on a 2/15 configuration of white with aero wheels and dug into the data to try to estimate when I might get a VIN. Rather Tesla is sitting on some white/aero VINs in the 75xx -76xx range or I will have to wait for them to restart the pattern with aero wheels as they are almost done with the pattern of paint colors with sport wheels.

White happens to be at the end of the pattern. Good news is the pattern usually spans less than 1k VINs, so unless cars produced per week is abysmally low, I'd think that will be produced sometime next week? Just gotta hope my 2/15 order puts me in the next run of white/aero.

Other thing to consider is just because this is the VIN order, it doesn't mean they are necessarily produced in that order. Maybe they were out of white paint at one point and skipped white VINs for a while... ok, I've written too much. I'm gonna end this here.

User sid0116 updated his/her entry on the spreadsheet noting a VIN date of 3/9 (today), VIN 9923. Deep Blue Metallic, Sport Wheels, NJ delivery.

Highest VIN I've seen. Almost to 10,000! Looks like VINs 9300-9999 are all 19-inch wheels. There was a run of aeros around 8700-8900, but there are quite a few VIN gaps sub-9000 that I expect to see filled in here in the next week or so. We'll also likely see our first 10000+ early next week.

Progress! Hoping the prevailing theory that aeros and West Coast deliveries are coming.

Configured 2/22
Black/Aero/FSD
Los Angeles
No VIN yet

 

[gdrum]

I'm 2/8 order white with aeros and no vin yet.

 

[killester23]

Reservation: 3/31/16 line waiter in MA (9:15 am ET)
Configuration: 2/22/18 (5 pm ET)
VIN: 3/8/18 (checked account at 8:30 am; #73xx, blue/aero/EAP)
Call from Rep: 3/9/18 (3 pm ET)

I was told I should be able to take delivery at Dedham, MA service center no later than 3/29/18

 

[PoitNarf]

Argh, still no call from Tesla for me! Perhaps they're doing this alphabetically? My last name is near the end of the alphabet so if that's the case I'll be one of the last of the recent VIN assignments to get a call I suppose.

 

[Eugene k.]

Yep, I dug into the data and tried to mark what color and wheel corresponds with each 100 VINs from 5k - 10k. I should have tried to average the VIN assignment date per VIN batch as well, but didn't. The pattern is roughly: black, midnight silver, silver, red, blue, white in one set of wheels. They don't produce both sets of wheels in the same paint runs.

There are a few wonky spots where the pattern may have deviated a bit.

There are a few sets of gaps that have unreported vins: 75xx - 77xx, 83xx -87xx, 90xx - 93xx. Perhaps there is an explanation for these gaps, perhaps cars with these VINs were produced with a bad part and they are awaiting a swap out? Who knows...

Based on the color patterns, those will probably be:

75xx: white/ aero
76xx: white/aero or midnight silver/sport
83XX - 87XX: Black/Midnight Silver w/ Aero
90XX - 92XX: Blue w/ Aero

We have VINs in the 87xx - 89xx range:
87XX: Silver/Aero
88XX: Red/Aero
82xx: Midnight silver/Aero

The pattern gets a bit funky in spots, but 90xx - 93xx should be silver, red, blue, white with Aero.

The below is confirmed by VINs:
93xx: black/ sport
94xx: midnight silver/sport
95xx: midnight silver/sport
96xx: silver /sport
96xx: red / sport
97xx: red / sport
98xx: red / sport
99xx: blue/ sport

White with sport wheels should be the next batch registered after the 99xx blue/sport batch.

I am sitting on a 2/15 configuration of white with aero wheels and dug into the data to try to estimate when I might get a VIN. Rather Tesla is sitting on some white/aero VINs in the 75xx -76xx range or I will have to wait for them to restart the pattern with aero wheels as they are almost done with the pattern of paint colors with sport wheels.

White happens to be at the end of the pattern. Good news is the pattern usually spans less than 1k VINs, so unless cars produced per week is abysmally low, I'd think that will be produced sometime next week? Just gotta hope my 2/15 order puts me in the next run of white/aero.

Other thing to consider is just because this is the VIN order, it doesn't mean they are necessarily produced in that order. Maybe they were out of white paint at one point and skipped white VINs for a while... ok, I've written too much. I'm gonna end this here.

There's definitely something wrong with white paint. In all other colors, we have reports of assignments in the 8363 ..10060 VIN batch and assignments to non-owners. The last person who reported getting a VIN for a white/aero was someone who configured on 1/26 (yesterday, MN, 74xx). They must be out of white paint. Or something.

The missing 90xx-92xx are mostly likewise white/aero. (Since this batch is 8363 to 10060 and at least 60% of orders are aero, the point where they switch from white/aero to black/sport should be closer to 9300.)

 

[Nurkbonis]

Nice analysis. I pulled all the data and didn't think about it that much, so I'm glad others are thinking too.

There's a black/sport reported in the 93xx range, so your theory about 90xx - 92xx being white/aero should be right.

Hoping whatever is up with white is fixed ASAP.

There's definitely something wrong with white paint. In all other colors, we have reports of assignments in the 8363 ..10060 VIN batch and assignments to non-owners. The last person who reported getting a VIN for a white/aero was someone who configured on 1/26 (yesterday, MN, 74xx). They must be out of white paint. Or something.

The missing 90xx-92xx are mostly likewise white/aero. (Since this batch is 8363 to 10060 and at least 60% of orders are aero, the point where they switch from white/aero to black/sport should be closer to 9300.)

 

[lkuntz]

Anyone else configured in Jan and still waiting for a VIN?

Yes, I configured 1/27 and am still waiting for a VIN. White w/Aeros.

 

[emir-t]

Sorry to deviate but I just had to; I love you people.

I reserved online half an hour before Elon took the stage on March 31st, 2016. I most likely stil have to wait more than 12 months for my car. However I just love reading data/reports/guesses on the production. I am continously disappointed with the ramp up since July and since my market doesn't have Superchargers or services Model 3 allure recedes from day to day, however my enthusiasm is strong.

Even though you guys are at most a month away from taking your deliveries the excitement is amazing. Keep on rocking. Love.

 

[McHoffa]

Got my VIN overnight! 88XX, red aero EAP ordered 2/22

 

[S3XY]

Argh, still no call from Tesla for me! Perhaps they're doing this alphabetically? My last name is near the end of the alphabet so if that's the case I'll be one of the last of the recent VIN assignments to get a call I suppose.

Try again. Mine is right near the beginning and I'm still waiting for a call. Have you filled out the insurance section yet?

 

[PoitNarf]

Try again. Mine is right near the beginning and I'm still waiting for a call. Have you filled out the insurance section yet?

Yep, all info was filled out and submitted as soon as I completed the $2500 order deposit. I just noticed this morning that the “Payment Method” section in my Tesla account changed from “In Progress” to “Incomplete”. This just changed maybe an hour ago. It allowed me to enter in the info for the bank that I’m using for financing and after submitting that info it is now listed as “Complete”. So something is definitely happening with my order on Tesla’s end of things.

 

[S3XY]

Yep, all info was filled out and submitted as soon as I completed the $2500 order deposit. I just noticed this morning that the “Payment Method” section in my Tesla account changed from “In Progress” to “Incomplete”. This just changed maybe an hour ago. It allowed me to enter in the info for the bank that I’m using for financing and after submitting that info it is now listed as “Complete”. So something is definitely happening with my order on Tesla’s end of things.

I just checked and my Payment Method still says pending even though I'm using my own bank as well. However, I now have a delivery date, March 24th!

 

[PoitNarf]

I just checked and my Payment Method still says pending even though I'm using my own bank as well. However, I now have a delivery date, March 24th!

Did you receive a call? Or you see that date on your Tesla account somewhere?

 

[PoitNarf]

I just noticed that the trade in section has updated for me as well. It already had my cell number in there and a next button which just sent me a text to do a self evaluation for my trade in.

 

[S3XY]

Did you receive a call? Or you see that date on your Tesla account somewhere?

No call, it was on my MyTesla page to the right of where all the progress tracking info is. One thing that probably helps me is that I don't have a trade-in so that section is marked completed.

 

[PoitNarf]

No call, it was on my MyTesla page to the right of where all the progress tracking info is. One thing that probably helps me is that I don't have a trade-in so that section is marked completed.

Ah ok, I just finished submitting my trade in info to my Tesla account. If the quote from Tesla doesn’t at least match what I was offered by Carvana then I’m going to go with Carvana for the trade in. Here’s what that section looks like filled in for anyone that’s interested. You can see why I gravitated towards the deep blue metallic with the aeros

 

[flyinghawaiian]

Yes, I configured 1/27 and am still waiting for a VIN. White w/Aeros.

Ah man. That sucks. I guess I'm not alone. Exact same configuration too.

Exactly 6 weeks since configuring and still on VIN

 

[nonstickrobot]

Ah man. That sucks. I guess I'm not alone. Exact same configuration too.

Exactly 6 weeks since configuring and still on VIN

Where are you located?

 

[Kipp]

Like Mr. @McHoffa I got my VIN this morning as well.
non-owner, WA State, 2/22 Config, Red/Aero Config, 3/10 VIN 721x

So happy. Now waiting for a nice call from a certain someone special.

 

[LV Acrobat]

75xx: white/ aero
76xx: white/aero or midnight silver/sport
83XX - 87XX: Black/Midnight Silver w/ Aero
90XX - 92XX: Blue w/ Aero

76xx I just saw is Black sport