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NoA is worthless, Autopilot is essentially unimproved from 2016-2017, and everybody has caught up.

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Every part of Navigate on Autopilot is worthless

I commute about 20 miles each way every day, on a route that involves all kinds of roads, from small to interstate. Every feature of NoA is not only worthless on all of those roads, it is fairly detrimental to the driving experience

* Speed based lane changes: (Part 1) NoA takes into account literally nothing but the very next cars, and often makes unforgivable navigational errors, such as putting you in a lane that will merge into yours (literally the arrows are there) in just a couple hundred feet, getting you in/out of lanes that don't make sense because you'll have to get out of them in a minute because of which lane you have to be in to reach your destination.

(Part 2) Even without any of those, it still makes bad choices (unless the situation is as obvious as being stuck behind a slow car in an otherwise empty interstate): It hogs the left lane (no idea why they got rid of that feature that made it move back) all the time, unless on "mild" it swerves from lane to lane to lane - and on "mild" it allows you to be stuck behind cars that are FAR too slow.

(Part 2) by itself could MAYBE (really doubtfully) be considered an improvement to regular autopilot, but it comes with (Part 1) and makes everything far worse.

* Navigation based lane changes: On the roads I am on, this is also a detriment. I don't know what input they're basing these decisions on, but it is just wrong so much of the time.

It often has the wrong idea on what lane it should be on eventually. At times, it will not start trying to merge until 0.7-0.8 miles left on a crowded road, making for some intensely anxious moments. At times, it will change lanes 3 miles in advance. I know both of those are results of poor map information, because esp. on 2 lane roads, it will randomly think it needs to get into another lane to follow the route, even though the lane we're on is completely fine. This last thing especially happens 2-3 times per drive, and most of the time I have to manually cancel it.

* Taking exits: "Taking exits" is literally just making 1 lane change and immediately declaring NOA is now off while keeping AP on - 99% of the time you have to immediately take over because (a) you have to make a turn quickly, or (b) it's on a butterfly exit and it's being extremely slow. So now that AP can "take exits" we can keep AP on for 2 seconds longer than we had to before. Yay.

In general, I've realized that NoA just makes me really anxious while driving because I don't know if it will make the right
decision. Often it doesn't, but even when it does I don't feel good about it because I have been anxious about it. I have turned NoA off.

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Autopilot is essentially unimproved from 2016-2017.

I first got an AP1 Tesla on February 2017. It centered itself perfectly on the lane and adjusted its speed well, and could read speed limit signs well 99% of the time. I know there was the whole debacle with MobilEye and AP had to get a lot worse before it could get better, but the lack of functional, usable difference in Tesla Autopilot between February 2017 and March 2020 is really very little. So little that if you had told me in Feb 2017, I would in no way believe you.

Today what I use Autopilot for is still 99.99% the same as my AP1 Tesla that was built in 2015. As I outlined above NoA takes away more than it brings to the table, so I don't use it. There are a few improvements (blind spot monitoring is much better while still not as good as my old Porsche Panamera from 2012, and the car now stops more reliably for stopped vehicles ahead, which is a very important improvement, albeit it's still uncomfortably late most times) but some stuff that's still inexplicably missing - I think AP2.5 still can't read traffic signs?

I'm not even mentioning gimmicks like smart summon. I love that I have it and I can shock people but I don't use it.

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Everybody has caught up.

The lane driving assist-related features on even Hyundais are very good now and while they might not be as good as Autopilot yet - remember that years ago when Autopilot was first a thing, none of those companies had anything that even remotely compared. Now, Autopilot is essentially functionally unimproved, but all of those companies now have rivaling technologies that have caught up or are getting really close.

(I'm on a HW2.5 MCU2 Model S.)
 
I am as skeptical as the next person, but given the recent statements from Tesla about a fundamental rewrite of autopilot software that is supposedly nearly completed, this seems like an odd time for this thread. But there is no question that the divorce with the AP1 developers has resulted in slower improvements than one would have expected three and a half years ago when Tesla-designed AP2.0 was introduced. Hopefully the fundamental rewrite will be more than just words.
 
I've no dog in this fight, but am somewhat amazed by these reports of phantom braking. In our AP1 car I think we've had no more than 5 total the entire time we've owned the car and actually, I can't recall more than 3. The old "Truck Lust" behavior seems pretty much gone now too, but that was terrifying!

As far as the new rewrite, I'd suggest waiting for the actual release of any software from Tesla before counting on it. Their record isn't wonderful.
 
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I've no dog in this fight, but am somewhat amazed by these reports of phantom braking. In our AP1 car I think we've had no more than 5 total the entire time we've owned the car and actually, I can't recall more than 3. The old "Truck Lust" behavior seems pretty much gone now too, but that was terrifying!

As far as the new rewrite, I'd suggest waiting for the actual release of any software from Tesla before counting on it. Their record isn't wonderful.
I can’t disagree about Tesla Time and Tesla Overpromises.

While I have no idea how Tesla deploys resources I suspect most of the focus of the past three years was ensuring Model 3 sales success and perhaps saving the company as a result. It appears that goal has been met. Hopefully now that the financial future is much brighter, severe service delay and responsiveness issues will be targeted, Supercharger maintenance will be improved and autopilot software will leap forward....to name three important tasks beyond selling new product lines. We’ll see.
 
I kinda agree about "everybody has caught up" part. Maybe not everybody has caught up but we are definitely seeing more and more AP-like systems from other auto makers like Supercruise and Highway Teammate. So I don't think we can say anymore that Tesla is the only automaker with AP. The key difference is that AP is more generalized and can work on pretty much every road whereas other auto makers are restricting their systems just to highway use in order to increase reliability.

But I definitely think it would be smart to wait and see what the FSD rewrite brings, especially since the FSD computer is a lot better than the current AP2/2.5 computer. I do expect to see some big improvements in AP with the FSD computer after the rewrite is complete. We should keep in mind too that Tesla is aiming for a general FSD so AP has basically been a bit of a jack of all trades kind of a system, being kinda good in lots of different things instead of being great at one thing.
 
Hopefully now that the financial future is much brighter, severe service delay and responsiveness issues will be targeted, Supercharger maintenance will be improved and autopilot software will leap forward....to name three important tasks beyond selling new product lines. We’ll see.

IMO, autonomy is more important than Starship. Elon understands the importance of autonomy; he has recently said 2 of Tesla's main goals are electrification and autonomy. I hope Elon's words represent the effort and progress at Tesla right now (internal builds / rewrite).
 
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I’m pleasantly surprised that as of my writing this, the OP does not have any disagrees. The first thing I did when I saw the title was scroll down and check that. I echo everything mentioned as well. I’ve yet to find a scenario where NoAP is anything but a detriment, and I make sure to give it a try on all the updates.

I would also caution people who are holding out hope for the big development that’s just around the corner. First it was “now that we’ve gotten rid of MobilEye we can really move forward”. Then it was “Chris Lattner has rewritten the stack so we can really move forward”. Then it was “Andrej Karpathy has rewritten the stack so we can really move forward”. Now it’s “we’re almost done rewriting the stack so we can really move forward”. After this it’ll be “we’re bringing dojo online so that we can really move forward”.

Maybe one of these times they’ll get something to stick after throwing it against the wall, but history has not validated any of their previous claims. Meanwhile all the “dinosaur OEMs” actually understand the point of “the tortoise and the hare”.
 
I kinda agree about "everybody has caught up" part. Maybe not everybody has caught up but we are definitely seeing more and more AP-like systems from other auto makers like Supercruise and Highway Teammate. So I don't think we can say anymore that Tesla is the only automaker with AP. The key difference is that AP is more generalized and can work on pretty much every road whereas other auto makers are restricting their systems just to highway use in order to increase reliability.

But I definitely think it would be smart to wait and see what the FSD rewrite brings, especially since the FSD computer is a lot better than the current AP2/2.5 computer. I do expect to see some big improvements in AP with the FSD computer after the rewrite is complete. We should keep in mind too that Tesla is aiming for a general FSD so AP has basically been a bit of a jack of all trades kind of a system, being kinda good in lots of different things instead of being great at one thing.
Is it third rewrite? I’m under the impression that there has been at least one rewrite already after the first years AP2 fiasco, when it was completely unusable.

Also it is worth mentioning that AP3 was also supposed to be the silver bullet.
 
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Is it third rewrite? I’m under the impression that there has been at least one rewrite already after the first years AP2 fiasco, when it was completely unusable.

Others can correct me if I am wrong on the timeline but it would be the 3rd rewrite if we can count AP2 as a rewrite of AP1:
Rewrite #1: AP2 launch that recreated AP1 with in-house code (that was a disaster).
Rewrite #2: Karpathy's new code that replaced some "software 1.0" code with neural networks (that brought some improvement, notably to lane keeping).
Rewrite #3: the current rewrite that is stitching together views from all 8 cameras into a single 3D view (we are waiting to see what this brings).
 
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I have had a very different experience than the OP.

I use NOA (no confirmation setting) on essentially every freeway drive. It keeps getting better, handling more challenging merges and exits and complex situations involving unexpected maneuvers from other cars.

I find it very relaxing to have the car do most of the work and rarely feel the need to take over, unless the traffic is very heavy and I'm in a big hurry for some reason.

Although not specifically a NOA feature, lanekeeping is also excellent -- far better than the human drivers I observe.

Over a year ago I took a ~23 mile drive on a curvy two-lane highway with ZERO interventions other than pulling off the road briefly for a quick stop to enjoy the view.

Since that time, lane-keeping continues to improve and can handle more challenging situations and handle them more smoothly, including sharp exit ramps and on-ramps.

I am not aware of any current commercially available system that can come close to keeping up with the capabilities of a 2016 Model S/X or 2017/18 Model 3 with AP2, and none of the currently available cars have a chance of keeping up with HW3 equipped vehicles.

Everyone else is at least 3 and 1/2 years behind and probably a lot more than that.
 
I have had a very different experience than the OP.

I use NOA (no confirmation setting) on essentially every freeway drive. It keeps getting better, handling more challenging merges and exits and complex situations involving unexpected maneuvers from other cars.

I find it very relaxing to have the car do most of the work and rarely feel the need to take over, unless the traffic is very heavy and I'm in a big hurry for some reason.

Although not specifically a NOA feature, lanekeeping is also excellent -- far better than the human drivers I observe.

Over a year ago I took a ~23 mile drive on a curvy two-lane highway with ZERO interventions other than pulling off the road briefly for a quick stop to enjoy the view.

Since that time, lane-keeping continues to improve and can handle more challenging situations and handle them more smoothly, including sharp exit ramps and on-ramps.

I am not aware of any current commercially available system that can come close to keeping up with the capabilities of a 2016 Model S/X or 2017/18 Model 3 with AP2, and none of the currently available cars have a chance of keeping up with HW3 equipped vehicles.

Everyone else is at least 3 and 1/2 years behind and probably a lot more than that.

Do you have AP3? I've heard folks with AP3 say they have similar experience to your's.

I am still on AP2.5 and my experience with NOA is closer to the OP's.
 
Both cars have HW2.5 -- one is currently at the service center getting the HW3 upgrade and the other one is scheduled later this month

Thanks.

Weird how people have such different experiences.

Have you never had NOA abort a lane change in the middle, or give you the red hand on wheel alert, or phantom brake, or oversteer into an exit or miss lane exit entirely?

Don't get me wrong. I've had good experiences with NOA too. But I have experienced some issues too.
 
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For what its worth, I use NoA every day from on ramp to off ramp on my way to work, the maps are good and it does what you would expect and significantly makes my commute more enjoyable. I haven't had a phantom brake for a long time and aborted lane changes are typically for identifiable/justifiable reasons. I've learned to live with the NoA style and just let it do its thing. Not always how I would do things, but generally safe and effective.

I've also experienced some routes that show NoAs weaknesses, in which case I just use AP, which is now pretty robust actually. Being able to use the blinker for lane changes (and having it actually know if it is safe or not to a pretty high degree of accuracy) is well and above most other systems on option, including AP1. I've been in AP1 cars and I would say they are nearly as good in 'normal' situations but not remotely comparable in difficult situations (like hard braking, hard turning, weird lanes etc). So to say progress has not been made is kind of a trolling comment really.

I think what you mean is, it doesn't do exactly what you want, where you want it to, all the time.
 
I bet a lot of the NoA behavior depends on the higher-res autopilot map availability. Out here NoA keeps getting better and I use it pretty much exclusively wherever it is available. When it’s not active I find myself nearly missing exits because I’m too used to just letting the car manage off-ramps and interchanges. I do pay closer attention in heavy traffic because NoA is still too slow to initiate lane changes after deciding to make them, even with HW3.
 
One thing to note - I got my newer car about a year ago, but until about 2 months ago I didn't have a daily commute whatsoever, and I thought NoA was good/acceptable.

It's only after starting to commute, and commuting about 20 miles each way every day, that I've been able to see how it actually improves very very little while making the rest of almost everything worse. It makes the same similar, hair pulling mistakes all the time.

Within my first two weeks of commuting (on a highway that sometimes has traffic) I realized that Speed Based Lane Changes was a huge headache and turned it off. I wanted to keep the rest of NoA because, hey, I've paid for FSD and, and NoA is the only new technology I have on my car that I didn't have on my old 85D... you really wanna justify the money you've spent.

But I really couldn't. Route based lane changes are about making the right lane change decision at the right time. If you think of every NoA decision as a "decision/timing" pair, I would say that about 25% of the decisions are flat out wrong (getting on the wrong lane / trying to change lanes even when the current lane is fine) and about 70% of the right decisions have wrong timing. Remember this is only route based lane changes! Speed based lane changes are definitely much worse.

I also realize that this is entirely based on the route, I totally believe there are routes out there that NoA does much better with. My route, however, is a fairly ordinary one. Most of it is on an interstate, some of it is on small roads (where I don't enable AP at all) and the last part of it is on a non-interstate highway.

I also disagree with "wait until bla bla rewrite" comments and frankly can not believe you guys are still saying these types of things...
 
I'm very bullish on the future of Tesla and Autopilot in general.

Having said that - I do actually agree with most of what the OP has said. If I try to rely 100% on NOA it's usually a frustrating and anxious ride. If I take over the lane change process (by using the turn signal) then it's significantly better. To me, that's still a relaxing experience - or at least significantly more relaxing than doing all the driving.

I agree completely with some of the questionable decision making the car does.

I'm hoping that we start seeing some serious improvement in 2020. If we don't then my outlook will probably become more skeptical.

I'm also glad to see an open and civil discussion occurring on this post!