Nobody talking about the Full Autonomy hint from Elon at Code Conference?!

[flamingoezz]

I've heard many here say there is zero chance of full autonomy..Elon hinted at a BIG advance in it at Code Conference. Comments?

Video here (start around 40 mins for the question):
Elon Musk did everything but confirm that Tesla Model 3 will be fully autonomous [Video]

 

[McHoffa]

Two things he said:

1. At the end of the year they will make a big announcement in regards to autonomous driving and the Model 3
2. One of the people asking him questions asked about full autonomy, and he said that the technology will be in place in less than two years (though regulations will prevent that from being activated for a while after that)

Also, when asked if the Model 3 would include autonomous driving at the $35k base price, he said he couldn't answer that and referenced the event they will hold later this year.

 

[geoffreak]

I'm definitely one of the people who thought the Model 3 would likely have fully autonomous hardware (or at least level 4). I was starting to go back on this and think it was unlikely until Elon said that. I think it's very clear that we'll see the S and X updated right around the part 2 reveal sometime later this fall.

There is still a possibility that level 4 or 5 autonomy won't be until APv3, but this would be weird to only be released a year after the Model 3 release (on par with Elon's 2 years quote). The other, more likely possibility is that the software will take an additional year or two but the hardware is ready now. Given that Tesla has admitted to testing future AP software in a dormant manner, so they may need a year or two of tests.

 

[model3fan]

I'm just stoked there will be a 'big' model 3 announcement end of 2016. Wasn't expecting anything official until close to production.

 

[hockeythug]

Posted this in the investing section. Also fits into Musk's comments about what will separate the Model 3 from the S and X.

I would say the obvious thing would be the Model 3 would get the current equivalent of autopilot or some relatively small updated version(who knows a year from now what it currently is) for free and the Model S and X would get generation two hardware. I doubt they would include gen two hardware in every Model 3 for optional after delivery purchase.

 

[GoTslaGo]

Two things he said:

1. At the end of the year they will make a big announcement in regards to autonomous driving and the Model 3
2. One of the people asking him questions asked about full autonomy, and he said that the technology will be in place in less than two years (though regulations will prevent that from being activated for a while after that)

Also, when asked if the Model 3 would include autonomous driving at the $35k base price, he said he couldn't answer that and referenced the event they will hold later this year.

He did comment in the shareholders meeting that S/X will be technology leaders and 3 will get "trickle down" technology.

I suspect base model 3 will have AP 1.0 hardware (what S owners have now) with option to get software (pay extra for SW like current model S). Future S/X will probably get AP 2.0 and future autonomy packages (hardware included, not sure if SW will be).

Suspect it will be a full hardware/software option (AP 2.0 and/or future autonomy) for Model 3 for purchase.

Edit:

Yes, exactly as @hockeythug said too!

 

[geoffreak]

I would say the obvious thing would be the Model 3 would get the current equivalent of autopilot or some relatively small updated version(who knows a year from now what it currently is) for free and the Model S and X would get generation two hardware. I doubt they would include gen two hardware in every Model 3 for optional after delivery purchase.

I would have to disagree with you. Elon has very clearly stated they will not hold anything back from the 3 [citation needed]. Elon has also made it clear he wants this car to be as safe as possible, and that he views AP as much safer than a human (and presumably better versions even more so). Given this information, I find it very hard to believe that the 3 won't have APv2. Also consider that APv1 wasn't designed to be produced cheaply, whereas APv2 will be.

The advantage that the Model S/X have is that they get it first... by the 9 months or so that it takes to produce the 3. Anything they don't put into the 3 at launch won't arrive for at least a couple of years and they intend to stay ahead of their competitors when it comes to autonomy.

 

[McHoffa]

I just don't think it would be a big announcement that the 3 would be getting hardware from 2014 in their cars. I strongly suspect the S/X get 2.0 hardware later this year and activated next fall, and the 3 gets it as well to be activated later. I also suspect that given his comments and lack of comments when asked if the $35k base model would be fully autonomous that it will in fact get it. I think as far as the trickle down features, we're talking more about other cool features. With so many other companies going to autonomy, including the Chevy Bolt, I think autopilot will become a standard feature. I mean, I highly doubt he'll allow Chevy and Ford to outdo Tesla.

 

[GoTslaGo]

^^^
You definitely have a point. The more I thought about it, it would be logistically painful/stupid to install a separate AP 1.0 in model 3 when everything else (S/X) will be going to AP 2.0. Software will be the issue.

 

[DrivingTheFuture]

I just don't think it would be a big announcement that the 3 would be getting hardware from 2014 in their cars. I strongly suspect the S/X get 2.0 hardware later this year and activated next fall, and the 3 gets it as well to be activated later. I also suspect that given his comments and lack of comments when asked if the $35k base model would be fully autonomous that it will in fact get it. I think as far as the trickle down features, we're talking more about other cool features. With so many other companies going to autonomy, including the Chevy Bolt, I think autopilot will become a standard feature. I mean, I highly doubt he'll allow Chevy and Ford to outdo Tesla.

Is the Bolt really going to have autonomous features besides lane keep assist? Just wondering if you heard something and from where... from what I learned in a recent motor trend video the closest lane keep assist with other manufacturers cars comes to teslas AP is that it just ping pongs back and forth between lane markers (which would have me dry heaving in seconds )

 

[ModelNforNerd]

Audi and Mercedes have recently pulled off "trickle UP" effects with their lines. the new CLA and the A3 received tech upgrades that hadn't been available in other models, and then those models picked them up as part of the refresh cycle.

Tesla might not do anything similar, since they don't do traditional refresh cycles anyway.


But there are at least 2 recent examples of it being done by other automakers.

 

[electracity]

There is still a possibility that level 4 or 5 autonomy won't be until APv3

Level 5? Has Musk announced teleportation?

 

[ModelNforNerd]

Level 5? Has Musk announced teleportation?

Level 4= controls are present and a human can drive at any time, but does not need to.

Level 5=no controls, no expectation of human control at any time.

 

[geoffreak]

Is the Bolt really going to have autonomous features besides lane keep assist? Just wondering if you heard something and from where... from what I learned in a recent motor trend video the closest lane keep assist with other manufacturers cars comes to teslas AP is that it just ping pongs back and forth between lane markers (which would have me dry heaving in seconds )

Lane keep assists (yes, the ping-pong variety) are available in cars in the mid-size market and maybe in the compact market too. I would see it as a competitive disadvantage if Chevy left off such a system in the Bolt.

Level 5? Has Musk announced teleportation?

I think you're thinking of a different level system. Here's info about autonomous driving levels.

 

[Adrien]

As Bernie Sanders would say, "This is HUUUUUUGGGE"

So it's official that some reveal about Autopilot will be later this year. The question now is to what extent. I say that given the statements on the controls not being finalized, the lack of a instrument cluster, the feeling of "a space ship" I think all this leads to quite possibly the car being ready for Level 4 autonomy. I have been reviewing MobilEye's presentations and I believe the car will have at least 180* vision with three cameras on the EyeQ3 chip. Quite possibly the EyeQ4 chip but I'm not holding my breath.

Either way, to me at least, it's all but confirmed some major autopilot advancement will be made for the reveal. Clearly sleeping in your moving car won't be legal for a while, but quite possibly the hardware could be in the car to do it

 

[Omer]

I think a few of you are misunderstanding the value of full autonomy. Holding v2.0 back from Model 3 is based on it being a feature -it's not a feature.

Full autonomy allows Tesla to turn on at any point a car sharing service with an established fleet of vehicles that have already been paid for. Most owners would be happy to earn extra money lending out their Tesla for an autonomous Uber. Autonomous Uber is the future of all transportation. Tesla's advantage over Uber/Google is those companies have to lease or buy the car fleet.

The moment the hardware is available, Tesla will put it in every car because it's actually a future massive revenue driver to Tesla. If the hardware is $2k then they will assume that $2k investment will yield significant return so they actually don't need to get repayment for that investment up front when they sell the car.

 

[ecarfan]

I'm just stoked there will be a 'big' model 3 announcement end of 2016. Wasn't expecting anything official until close to production.

I listened to the entire Code conference interview a few hours ago. My recollection is that Musk said there would be a significant Tesla "event" before the end of this year. He did not specifically say it was a "Model 3 event".

He said the topic of the even would be "the obvious".

I can see only one rational way to interpret that phrase: Elon will announce some high level of autonomous driving capability on the S and X. It will be similar to the way that AP was introduced in September 2014: suddenly all cars being built have new hardware, there is an event where Elon announces what the new hardware is for (in that case it was the first version of AP) and that the software will be released soon (in that case it took about a year, certainly longer than he intended it to take).

The event at the end of this year will, in my opinion, be an announcement of something like L4 autonomous driving, near the date of the event all S and X being built will have a new hardware suite of sensors, and the software will follow at some point in the future.

I'm as certain as I can be that is what will happen.

 

[Alketi]

I can see only one rational way to interpret that phrase: Elon will announce some high level of autonomous driving capability on the S and X. It will be similar to the way that AP was introduced in September 2014: suddenly all cars being built have new hardware, there is an event where Elon announces what the new hardware is for (in that case it was the first version of AP) and that the software will be released soon (in that case it took about a year, certainly longer than he intended it to take).

I agree. I listened as well and I came to the same conclusion.

He did make those statements in the context of "will the base Model 3 be autonomous", so I think there's still a chance that the event could also be part 2 of the Model 3 reveal. Time-wise, if they put "pencils down" in mid-July, then that would give them 4-5 months to build some functioning prototypes of the final car. It's quick, but possible.

 

[ModelNforNerd]

I agree. I listened as well and I came to the same conclusion.

He did make those statements in the context of "will the base Model 3 be autonomous", so I think there's still a chance that the event could also be part 2 of the Model 3 reveal. Time-wise, if they put "pencils down" in mid-July, then that would give them 4-5 months to build some functioning prototypes of the final car. It's quick, but possible.

We didn't realize how close to the "finished product" the mules from the Launch Event were until after the fact. So no....not impossible at all.....

 

[CarlitoDoc]

Even if AP V.2.0 is an "expensive" option.....I will Gladly pay for it !!!!