Nonowners - If you don't get the full 7500 tax credit, will you get the car?

[steven415]

I know there are a lot of snobby EV owners who would not look at an ICE, but the vast majority of drivers don't mind or feel the need to be an early adapter to EVs.

I can get a model 3 $55,000 out the door or I can get another very nice new car for $35,000 out the door and have $20,000 in my pocket. I think most people out there would prefer the latter. In fact, I would go with the latter if not for the full tax credit.

I believe for most people without excess income, the model 3 has trouble competing vs the new cars that are coming out without the tax credit and worry about TSLA selling model 3s a few years down the line. (Although i love their semi prospects)

As an investor, I would love for the model 3 to gobble up the Camry/accord market. But I don't believe that will happen within the next ten years.

 

[jmp470]

The options for the poll are to narrow. I will buy a M3 when there is no line for one. Until then, I drive a Prius Touring 4 that averages 54.5 MPG driving 80 on the highway.

 

[happyguy]

Yes.

 

[slipnslider]

Anecdotal - but my buddy cancelled his Model 3 reservation when he realized he wouldn't get the full credit on the SR model. He's an accountant. And I'm sure he's not alone.

Tesla took a real gamble by building the PUP LR first. They're betting the additional money they make from forcing people who want the tax credit to buy those options will be greater than the money they'll lose by people like my buddy cancelling altogether.

Another flaw in the "LR PUP FIRST" strategy is that giving the tax credit to people who can afford the more expensive version and people who already owned teslas (thereby losing some sales to less affluent non owners) prevents the tesla family from growing as large as it could have. There are fewer families with teslas today than there would have been if they started with the SR model. Having more teslas in middle class homes instead of in gated communities would have helped the brand a lot.

 

[gene]

We have two Model 3's in the family but we need a car for my wife. She needs a car. The Model 3 is the best car at $35,000 incentive or no incentive. So whether we get the $7500 or not, we will buy the car.

 

[slipnslider]

I look at it like this. Car is $58k out the door with my previously canceled spec. I expect to be able to pick one up for about $40k next year.

I would be very surprised if you can find a LR PUP EAP model for 40k next year, unless the cars turn out to be seriously flawed.

If buying the equivalent new car in 2019 would cost $58k, a year old 2018 model with 10k miles will likely still be at least $50k next year, and would have no problem selling at that price. Maybe $40k in 2-3 years. But good luck.

 

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

I didn't vote because "No" isn't quite right.

If I can't get the full tax credit I'll delay my purchase, drive my Prius for as long as I can and hope that a Tesla Model 3 SR will be available in the future just with the winter options I really want.

I don't _need_ to buy. The tax credit would have brought my purchase forward.

 

[gene]

It is not black and white. You guys do know, I hope. The $7500 does not simply end once Tesla reaches 200,000 cars sold in the USA. For the remaining of that 1/4 and all of the following 1/4, regardless of how many cars Tesla makes, everyone, I mean every last buyer gets $7500. Then the following 1/4 every buyer, no matter how many, get $3750, then the next 1/4 $1875. Chances are fairly good that anyone receiving a Model 3 in the year 2018 will get the $7500. This is one of the reasons Tesla is shipping Model 3's to Canada on the early side. In order to stretch the date of hitting 200,000 in the USA until early 3rd 1/4.

 

[Runt8]

It is not black and white. You guys do know, I hope. The $7500 does not simply end once Tesla reaches 200,000 cars sold in the USA. For the remaining of that 1/4 and all of the following 1/4, regardless of how many cars Tesla makes, everyone, I mean every last buyer gets $7500. Then the following 1/4 every buyer, no matter how many, get $3750, then the next 1/4 $1875. Chances are fairly good that anyone receiving a Model 3 in the year 2018 will get the $7500. This is one of the reasons Tesla is shipping Model 3's to Canada on the early side. In order to stretch the date of hitting 200,000 in the USA until early 3rd 1/4.

The people who look closely at the numbers still are very confident that 200,000 will be reached in the second quarter. No one outside Tesla knows if they are sending cars to Canada to try to stretch to the third quarter.

 

[TheLocNar]

Yes. I’m factoring everything in for next year without the tax credit.

 

[Redwood]

I will be getting it, but probably not enabling EAP until a later date.

Same here

 

[slipnslider]

I can get a model 3 $55,000 out the door or I can get another very nice new car for $35,000 out the door and have $20,000 in my pocket.

Of course half or more of that 20k left in your pocket will be spent on gasoline over the life of the car...

 

[gene]

I can get a model 3 $55,000 out the door or I can get another very nice new car for $35,000 out the door and have $20,000 in my pocket. I think most people out there would prefer the latter. In fact, I would go with the latter if not for the full tax credit.

Let's say you get a $35,000 car that gets 30 mpg. In 150,000 miles that is 5,000 gallons of gas. In California 5,000 gallons x $4 = $20,000 right there. Then you are driving a less safe, less pleasurable car that causes lung cancer and brain damage to children (Have kids? Have family?). Lastly, you have to suffer the embarrassment of it being 2018 and you are buying an obsolete gas car.

 

[az erik]

Of course half or more of that 20k left in your pocket will be spent on gasoline over the life of the car...

Electricity is free? (before you fire back at me I have 2 EV's and know full well that I went from 18 cents a mile cost on my IS350 to 2.5 cents about, on my EV's. That said I have 50 to 60,000 miles on each. A cost of $2500 per 100,000 miles. That's not bad but that's not free. Keep in mind the average MS runs about $3500 per 100,000 miles. Not bad, but not free. and I avg 265kwh a mile in Fords. Only figuring actual used power, not even trying to cost in the 20% over head that never gets in the car. Supercharging etc I don't bother to calc. If you can manage to charge all the time for free, go for it but in Phx it's not happening and there are only 2 SC's in the whole area and one is inside a mall.)

Sorry Gene I have to disagree with you on "obsolete car". Until electric out weighs gas by a good amount and people start asking "why are you pumping gas" It's not obsolete. That's the equivalent of saying someone buying a Iphone 7 to make phone calls is buying an obsolete phone. It makes the calls, it does the job. Buying a rotory phone, that's not even obsolete as the phone infrastructure still accepts pulse dialing. In your mind maybe it is, but the simple fact is you can't say that Billions of ICE are obsolete because you can own a Tesla. (or 4)

 

[Runt8]

Until electric out weighs gas by a good amount and people start asking "why are you pumping gas" It's not obsolete.

I ask myself this question all the time

 

[slipnslider]

Electricity is free?

Nope. My 10k savings figure was the approximate amount you'd be ahead AFTER taking your higher electricity costs into account.