Nonsense from John Petersen

[teslasguy]

I think Elon is dumb like a fox. He openly talked about the future strain on growth for Tesla as being the need for a lot more battery factories. Why do you think he's spreading that word? Seems to me a smart move to whip up the potential manufacturers interest in building more capacity. And also has the potential benefit of lowering costs due to additional competition.

 

[JRP3]

It's just classic Petersen, grasping at any straw, while TSLA hits another ATH. Cell supply won't be an issue until after G3/E hits high volume production which means 2018 at the soonest. Meanwhile cell production capacity is already being increased. Also worth mentioning that contrary to what he claims you shouldn't need "significant refurbishing" to use different chemistries:

All of the idle plants were designed to produce cells using specific chemistries that can't be changed to suit Tesla's requirements without significant refurbishing

 

[haid]

Q: What is a doomsayer to do after the hour of prophecy passes uneventfully?
A: Make another prediction.

Or in JP's case, about 6 more.

 

[JRP3]

Is it just me, or is Seeking Alpha overly censor reader comments? I replied to Mr Petersen's article on battery constraints only to have it deleted for a "personal attack"

It's not just you. SA seems to be quite random as to what is deleted and what is allowed, though they also do seem to be extra protective of Petersen. He is the page click meister after all.

 

[vfx]

I think Elon is dumb like a fox. He openly talked about the future strain on growth for Tesla as being the need for a lot more battery factories.....

I wait waiting for this one to be pointed out. For the hundreds of vocal Tesla doubters that jump all over this stated battery shortage, there are a handful of quiet people who see opportunity.

 

[Robert.Boston]

Just for the record:

AXPW is down 53% YTD, with the company now at $16m market cap
TSLA is up 385% TYD, with the company now at $20,000m market cap

If Petersen is so wise, why has the foolish company quadrupled in value while his has halved? And why is TSLA now 1000x more valued than AXPW?

Honestly, I've put a small pile of chips on AXPW because I think they've got an interesting opportunity to save money for large rig operators. But Petersen really should be devoting more of his intellectual focus to Axion rather than sniping at Tesla.

 

[JRP3]

His standard canned response is that AXPW is as irrationally valued on the downside as TSLA is valued on the upside.

 

[ggr]

Nonsense Mr. Petersen.

That's enough to make it, technically, a personal attack. Also 2nd sentence. (Note: I agree with you! But you have to be careful how you phrase it.)

 

[Curt Renz]

TSLA shares reached an all-time closing high on Friday, yet here on Sunday Petersen is again telling shareholders why they are wrong: http://seekingalpha.com/article/166...its-doe-loan?source=email_rt_article_readmore

 

[stopcrazypp]

TSLA shares reached an all-time closing high on Friday, yet here on Sunday Petersen is again telling shareholders why they are wrong: http://seekingalpha.com/article/166...its-doe-loan?source=email_rt_article_readmore

Basically he's saying Tesla would certainly default on the Leverage Ratio in Q4 2013 if they didn't repay the loan because of the Tesla Model S loan program's impact on their liabilities. But then as he pointed out, Tesla was able to renegotiate a delay two separate times, so why would Tesla not just renegotiate a third time? The only way Tesla would default for sure even after renegotiation is if they never hit their target profit.

 

[lorih]

He also forgot to point out that the media kept hitting hard on the "Tesla would be out of business if weren't for US subsidies, and loans" story. In fact, he mentions timing 8 days after conference call. Well, I'm not chronologically challenged, and I remember that shortly before Elon announced he was going to raise funds with secondary offering, Palin went crazy on social media about Tesla and Obama government support.

If you ask me, the finance round had more to do with Elon and Tesla being tired of always having to correctly point out that the loan wasn't a government bailout like GM and other car dealers got, but a DOE loan initiated during Bush administration.

During secondary offering, Elon raised funds to expand infrastructure, got rid of some of these ignorant complaints in the media, purchased more shares himself to insure he kept primary control of Tesla, and freed himself from government oversight on how to grow and manage his business. If you ask me, paying off the DOE loan early was among the first of a long series of positive and well timed media strikes. From May on, we had some kind of positive announcement in the Media about every 3 weeks which is what I believe is responsible for the large Market Cap it has today.

 

[JRP3]

I have never been wrong about Tesla.

My new favorite quote from Mr. P :biggrin:

 

[Dan5]

Heres why I think he his so anti-Tesla

If Tesla succeeds, it kicks the legs out from under axion

Here's why

1. The other OEMs will follow Tesla's suite and put out EVs, lowering the market for microhybrids

2. The "backup" power, such as their powercube is rendered useless due to aftermarket being flooded with 15-20 yr old Model S batteeies

3. The trucking industry gets involved with hybrids, again, huge, 1000 lb model S used battery is used instead of new lead carbon.

There is absolutely no way out for Axion if Tesla succeeds.

I liken Axion to those companies that made advances in CRT screens circa 2000. Yes, you get a few year run, but its battle that has been lost.

 

[stopcrazypp]

Fact is no one cares about micro-hybrids, and with Tesla bringing enthusiasm for EVs higher, even less people will care. The only way they will be able to make any mark in the market is if they are included in cars as standard. Plus, given the low unit costs, the only way lead-carbon companies can make money is with huge contracts.

Plus supposedly the new EPA cycle doesn't show much of a fuel economy advantage for micro-hybrids compared to the Euro cycle (may be a side effect of adjustments made in order to address overestimation of hybrid fuel economy), so there's little incentive to offer them in the US.

 

[Citizen-T]

This made me lol.

Twitter / jimcramer: What did you expect from Seeking ...

 

[Jonathan Hewitt]

This made me lol.

View attachment 29791

Twitter / jimcramer: What did you expect from Seeking ...

Wow, that says a lot

 

[Robert.Boston]

Fact is no one cares about micro-hybrids, and with Tesla bringing enthusiasm for EVs higher, even less people will care. The only way they will be able to make any mark in the market is if they are included in cars as standard. Plus, given the low unit costs, the only way lead-carbon companies can make money is with huge contracts.

Plus supposedly the new EPA cycle doesn't show much of a fuel economy advantage for micro-hybrids compared to the Euro cycle (may be a side effect of adjustments made in order to address overestimation of hybrid fuel economy), so there's little incentive to offer them in the US.

FWIW, Axion's focus seems to have shifted entirely to big rigs, shifting them to serial hybrids. Probably a better strategy than pursuing micro-hybrids, but as @Dan5 notes carrying around lots of heavy PbC batteries may not be as cost-effective as carrying the bulkier but lighter equivalent in LiIon -- especially used LiIon from EVs. We'll see -- I've still got a small bet on AXPW that I expect will become valueless, but there's a tiny possibility of a big payoff. It's my chip on the roulette table, betting on 00.

 

[JRP3]

the bulkier but lighter equivalent in LiIon

Why would the more energy dense lithium be bulkier than the PbC, which has worse energy density than lead acid?

I've still got a small bet on AXPW that I expect will become valueless, but there's a tiny possibility of a big payoff. It's my chip on the roulette table, betting on 00.

I'm in the same boat, though I've been thinking of dumping my AXPW and using my loss to offset some of my gains in TSLA. I can always buy back into AXPW at a lower price point :biggrin:

 

[Nicu.Mihalache]

Why would the more energy dense lithium be bulkier than the PbC, which has worse energy density than lead acid?

In some applications like serial hybrid trucks and trains (diesel / gas engine always on), the power density is much more important than energy density.

I'm in the same boat, though I've been thinking of dumping my AXPW and using my loss to offset some of my gains in TSLA. I can always buy back into AXPW at a lower price point :biggrin:

Not for long, it seems. There are no guarantees, of course.

 

[JRP3]

LiFePO4 and Li titanate can put out as much or more power than PbC, with a flatter discharge curve.