Northrup Grumman (was Orbital Sciences) Antares / Cygnus

[Grendal]

That Orbital's 'new' Antares uses Russian-built RD-181 engines doesn't suggest this booster is remotely competitive with Falcon 9.
Does anyone know the approximate cost of an Orbital ISS resupply mission versus what SpaceX is charging?

I don't think it's inaccurate to say that the only reason NASA wants a few Orbital resupply missions in the mix is to guarantee they can continue to get supplies to ISS after a SpaceX RUD. I don't know that to be the case, so if anyone knows better, please correct.

Thinking forward a few years to when the BFR/BFS are resupplying ISS or its replacement, if SpaceX continues to have and use the last iteration of Falcon 9 for various other launches, if there was a RUD of the BFR would NASA be okay with then using a Falcon 9 until BFR was again cleared for use? I.e. NASA doesn't want all its eggs in one basket. But is that basket the specific launch vehicle or the company that builds and launches it? I don't think there has previously been any launch provider that has two proven spacecraft with overlap in LEO capacity to lead to such a question.

Good questions. I'll do my best to answer them.

Orbital seems to be getting about $200 million per launch according to all the numbers I found. The one thing I couldn't find is how much they are getting for the upcoming CRS2 contract. SpaceX averages out to $137.5 million per launch including COTS, CRS1, and CRS2 contract. Orbital is contracted for 12 launches and SpaceX is contracted for 25 launches so far. CRS 2 is more of an open ended contract with NASA having the ability to add launches as needed. CRS2 will include Sierra Nevada and the Cargo Dreamcatcher launched on an Atlas V.

NASA awards CRS2 contracts to SpaceX, Orbital ATK, and Sierra Nevada | NASASpaceFlight.com
SpaceX wins 5 new space station cargo missions in NASA contract estimated at $700 million - SpaceNews.com

Since the US Government has felt backed into a corner with ULA having a monopoly for a while, the new policy (promoted by ULA after SpaceX looked to take them out) seems to be to always have a backup launch provider. Personally I think this is a smart strategy. SpaceX would not be the backup as well as the main launch provider using the F9, FH, and the BFR. I doubt the government would be okay with SpaceX providing both duties unless they are forced to do it. I expect it will continue to be SpaceX, ULA, and Orbital providing the bulk of the US launches until the early 2020's. The wild card will be when Blue Origin finally brings the New Glenn into the market.

 

[Grendal]

NASA Wallops on Twitter

Antares and Cygnus are vertical in anticipation of a CRS launch on Monday from Wallops.

Antares • OA-9
Launch window: 0839-0844 GMT (4:39-4:44 a.m. EDT)
Launch site: Pad 0A, Wallops Island, Virginia

This is the ninth resupply mission for OATK. They lost one rocket and there was one test run that did send supplies to the ISS.

 

[MacGreiner]

Was planning to going to the Sunday launch. Wont be able to make it now, but the right decision. The weather has been and would have been dreadful.

 

[Grendal]

NASA-TV Wallops

 

[Grendal]

Orbital Sciences merged with Alliant Techsystems to become Orbital ATK. Orbital ATK has now been acquired by Northrup Grumman and will become Northrop Grumman Innovation Systems.
Acquisition of Orbital ATK approved, company renamed Northrop Grumman Innovation Systems - SpaceNews.com

 

[miimura]

Great. Now Northrop Grumman can launch their own classified payloads and we won't have proxies pointing the finger at SpaceX when something goes wrong.

 

[MacGreiner]

Shame

Orbital Sciences merged with Alliant Techsystems to become Orbital ATK. Orbital ATK has now been acquired by Northrup Grumman and will become Northrop Grumman Innovation Systems.
Acquisition of Orbital ATK approved, company renamed Northrop Grumman Innovation Systems - SpaceNews.com

That's a shame.

 

[bxr140]

That's a shame.

Why? If they can be a stronger player in the space industry as a conglomerate, I say great.

 

[MacGreiner]

History. Every aerospace acquisition I can remember has argued before the Federal Trade Commission that they would be able to drop contractor pricing and/or create jobs. We all know how that has gone.

 

[scaesare]

What would be rather funny is if Northrop Grumman's satellite division actually found their sister launch services division more expensive than SpaceX, and either had had to use them anyway, or went ahead and snubbed them for SpaceX...

 

[bxr140]

What would be rather funny is if Northrop Grumman's satellite division actually found their sister launch services division more expensive than SpaceX, and either had had to use them anyway, or went ahead and snubbed them for SpaceX...

Boeing does it, Orbital does it, Airbus does it, LM does it, ISRO does it...ESA doesn’t always launch French, NASA doesn’t always launch American...

No story here.

 

[bxr140]

History. Every aerospace acquisition I can remember has argued before the Federal Trade Commission that they would be able to drop contractor pricing and/or create jobs. We all know how that has gone.

So you’re saying if someone in the space industry lays out a plan with targets and subsequently misses them, it’s reason for them to have never existed?

 

[MacGreiner]

So you’re saying if someone in the space industry lays out a plan with targets and subsequently misses them, it’s reason for them to have never existed?

No. Just that aerospace mergers and acquisitions (not unlike other industries) are done for one purpose only - increase profit. Buying out smaller competitors is a longer term strategy for just that. Coming up with other narratives is just disingenuous.

 

[HVM]

"Northrop Grumman Innovation Systems"... Can that be more generic?

 

[Grendal]

Two more launches - maybe:

Rogozin Sticks a Knife into Northrop Grumman's Antares Rocket

by Douglas MessierManaging Editor Roscosmos Director General Dmitry Rogozin said Russia will no longer sell rocket engines to U.S. companies, dealing a potentially fatal blow to Northrop Grumman’s Antares rocket. The decision was made in retaliation for U.S. sanctions over Russia’s invasion of...

www.parabolicarc.com

NG-18
NG-19

Commercial Resupply Services - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

 

[EVCollies]

Two more launches - maybe:

Rogozin Sticks a Knife into Northrop Grumman's Antares Rocket

by Douglas MessierManaging Editor Roscosmos Director General Dmitry Rogozin said Russia will no longer sell rocket engines to U.S. companies, dealing a potentially fatal blow to Northrop Grumman’s Antares rocket. The decision was made in retaliation for U.S. sanctions over Russia’s invasion of...

www.parabolicarc.com

NG-18
NG-19

Commercial Resupply Services - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

Although I wish this could be corrected in weeks to months, I fear it will be months to years.

 

[Grendal]

Although I wish this could be corrected in weeks to months, I fear it will be months to years.

Actually, I think, Antares is probably done. They hopefully have everything needed for the last two launches. The contract is over with NASA anyway. I suppose it's possible that Cygnus could launch on something else. They'd have to work out something with NASA though.

 

[Grendal]

Antares 300 from Firefly and NG is in development.

Northrop Grumman Teams with Firefly Aerospace to Develop Antares Rocket Upgrade and New Medium Launch Vehicle

CHANDLER, Ariz. – Aug. 8, 2022 – Northrop Grumman Corporation (NYSE: NOC) and Firefly Aerospace have joined forces to provide an American-built first-stage upgrade for the Antares rocket and a new medium launch vehicle to serve commercial, civil and...

news.northropgrumman.com

Northrop Grumman and Firefly to partner on upgraded Antares - SpaceNews

Northrop Grumman and Firefly Aerospace announced Aug. 8 that they will work together to develop a new first stage for Northrop’s Antares rocket.

spacenews.com

Article on second to last CRS launch:

Cygnus cargo ship launches to space station, deploys one of two solar arrays – Spaceflight Now

 

[Grendal]

Oops. Though it does look like they will be able to succeed without it. I expect that NASA will allow it.

Cygnus solar array fails to deploy - SpaceNews

NASA is weighing whether it is safe for a Cygnus cargo spacecraft to approach the ISS because one of two solar array failed to deploy after launch Nov. 7.

spacenews.com

 

[Grendal]

It looks like they will allow it:

Watch Cygnus cargo ship arrive at space station early Wednesday

Astronauts are scheduled to capture Cygnus with the orbiting lab's robotic arm around 5:05 a.m. ET on Wednesday (Nov. 9).

www.space.com