Number of FSD button pressers (wild speculation thread)

[dckiwi]

I'm sure a lot of us are wondering how many other people we're in line behind waiting to get the beta. I'd like to offer up some completely unfounded speculation (and welcome similar wild guesses from others).

• Tesla has sold approximately 888,000 vehicles in the US since AP 2.0 was released in October 2016.
• One (albeit likely unreliable) survey suggested that the take rate for FSD has been ~11%.
• Therefore, it's conceivable that roughly 90,000 cars in the US have the FSD package.
• This is where the wild speculation begins. How many of these 90,000 would:
  • Know about the FSD Beta (I am amazed when I talk to Tesla owners with FSD who are unaware that this beta exists).
  • Know about the existence of the button.
  • Have installed the required Tesla software and iOS app.
  • Decided that they want to be part of this beta and pressed the button.

So - of those 90,000 US FSD vehicles, I am going to go out on a limb and say that ....... around 40,000-50,000 have pressed the button.

What do you think - even close? Off by an order of magnitude one way or another?

 

[nvx1977]

Do we know if the entire FSD fleet got the button? I know there are some MCU1 threads here where it seemed like those people didn't get the button, even though they have the hardware for FSD.

Musk prolly had a good look at the number of participants and the scores coming in when he tweeted this:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1442707528924684293

And he says a "few days" to get through all the 100 scores. So I'd say few means 3-4 days? So about 3000-4000 people with 100. Then maybe we can look at some of the polls floating around here to ballpark a distribution curve... maybe 10k people scoring 99? That covers 2 weeks worth of ungating before reaching the 98s.

 

[dckiwi]

Good points. Regarding MCU1 - even if you back out all MCU1 vehicles (Q1 2018 and earlier) you get about 750k vehicles in the US. So not a huge difference.

Your point about Elon's tweet and roughly 3k-4k people being at 100 is interesting. One poll on here has 20% of people with a perfect score. 4k*5 = 20,000 people total.

Anyway, it does feel like the number of button pressers is likely in the tens of thousands range.

 

[BriansBucketList]

Good points. Regarding MCU1 - even if you back out all MCU1 vehicles (Q1 2018 and earlier) you get about 750k vehicles in the US. So not a huge difference.

Your point about Elon's tweet and roughly 3k-4k people being at 100 is interesting. One poll on here has 20% of people with a perfect score. 4k*5 = 20,000 people total.

Anyway, it does feel like the number of button pressers is likely in the tens of thousands range.

During last week's earnings call, it was stated that there were 150,000 people enrolled in the driver score system. That much was clear. Not clear if that includes people with Tesla insurance, and if they get an ongoing safety score.