[NYT] How did GM Create Tesla's Dream Car First?

[AndY1]

If mass market means 30k-50k cars sold in a year, the Model S already qualifies as mass market.

No one denies that. I thought we were talking about the value EV market.

 

[Big Dog]

Just really confusing to see the US press dissing their own flag bearer so much of the time.

Perhaps their flag bearer is different than yours. Remember, GM was bailed out by the government, so it is gonna get all the positive press certain politicos and writers can throw its way. Also, GM is supported by a certain type of labor force and distribution channel that the NYT whole-heartedly supports. Their writers just have NYT glasses on. They only see what they can.

There are some valid points in the article, and I don't begrudge them. I think that article could have been written well with a similar angle, but done so honestly...

There is very little honesty in the press today, so that ain't happening.

Fast charging is the only way most people would pick an EV for their primary vehicle.

Perhaps true, but GM doesn't need to go after the primary vehicle market to make this car a success. Selling to just the second, third and fourth cars in the family would plenty profitable. And note, a 2nd/3rd/4th car only requires a 120 home outlet, not supercharged outlets dotting the country. The primary driver, say and SUV or van, could be used for long trips.

 

[AndY1]

Perhaps their flag bearer is different than yours. Remember, GM was bailed out by the government, so it is gonna get all the positive press certain politicos and writers can throw its way.

If my memory servers me correctly Volt1 didn't get much positive press, instead it was labeled as a government car.

 

[Jeff N]

That makes the system a loss leader which adds value to the car - but NOT to the charger owner. As such, it has to be either rolled out or subsidized by the car manufacturer, or government. GM has explicitly said that they will not subsidize CCS rollout. So they're going to have to learn this (fairly obvious) lesson the hard way.

Well, they could be. But if the cars can only charge at 50kW, the chargers will be 50kW. The 90 miles in 30 minutes that was on the Bolt page, the 90 miles in about 30 minutes that Pam Fletcher was quoted on recently, and the 90 miles in 30 minutes that returned to the Bolt page after the EPA range announcement doesn't suggest that the Bolt is going to have faster charging capability, and it's the Bolt that's likely to be the leading influence in CCS deployment. It's going to set the CCS network back _years_.

Audi (VW Group) already has a US executive in charge of rolling out 175 high rate CCS stations Tesla-style along interstate routes prior to Audi sale of the Q6 large battery BEV in 2018.

VW is also under a consent decree to spend $200 million a year on zero-emission infrastructure like charging stations.

The installation cost of a Tesla Supercharger site has been variously estimated at $150-250 thousand. If VW only used half of their infrastructure spending to build $250,000 charging sites that would lead to installing 400 ~4 stall CCS chargers across the country every year.

Actually, 40% of that money is going to California so my state ought to be covered with high speed charging within a couple of years even if they waste a bunch of the money on H2 stations for the Toyota Mirai.

And that's just for a year of spending. This infrastructure spending will go on for 10 years..... This is going to be a "build it and they will come [to buy BEVs]" story.

 

[Saghost]

Audi (VW Group) already has a US executive in charge of rolling out 175 high rate CCS stations Tesla-style along interstate routes prior to Audi sale of the Q6 large battery BEV in 2018.

VW is also under a consent decree to spend $200 million a year on zero-emission infrastructure like charging stations.

The installation cost of a Tesla Supercharger site has been variously estimated at $150-250 thousand. If VW only used half of their infrastructure spending to build $250,000 charging sites that would lead to installing 400 ~4 stall CCS chargers across the country every year.

Actually, 40% of that money is going to California so my state ought to be covered with high speed charging within a couple of years even if they waste a bunch of the money on H2 stations for the Toyota Mirai.

And that's just for a year of spending. This infrastructure spending will go on for 10 years..... This is going to be a "build it and they will come [to buy BEVs]" story.

I just hope they use some of that money to install higher power CCS stations. 50kW isn't enough for real long distance travel - I know you've pointed out some faster standards are coming out, but if the money all goes to 50kW (or even 24kW) stations, it really won't help much.

 

[mark]

I can't understand why no one seems to ask if GM is going to be losing money on each Bolt?
Isn't the reason they haven't built it before because it was too expensive?
Isn't the Bolt just a stunt to steal Tesla model 3 thunder by beating it to market and not caring about losses because they can sell Tahoes and Silverados to cover the cost overruns?
Shouldn't the real race be to build a mass market EV that anyone would like to own and turn a profit doing it?
I think the press is so very naive...

 

[Jeff N]

I just hope they use some of that money to install higher power CCS stations. 50kW isn't enough for real long distance travel - I know you've pointed out some faster standards are coming out, but if the money all goes to 50kW (or even 24kW) stations, it really won't help much.

VW/Audi is not going to install 50 kW 125A stations on interstate routes in support of their ~90 kWh cars. No way. The CCS/CharIn standards for "150 kW" 350A charging will be formalized within months and there are already vendors with products ready to ship.

 

[Lex]

Funny, how a lack of fast charging, when Model S launched, wasn't a problem for Tesla owners, but now, it is.

People adapt to the new things readily, as long as it's a certain level of amazing, for instance iPhone 1 without copy/paste (though I'm still betting that omission was just Steve Jobs scheming). Then the Supercharger became the "must have" accessory, like the headphone jackless models that represent our future (which I am hoping to get as soon as possible)

 

[tinm]

My old rule even applies with the New York Times. If a Tesla-related article has a headline that ends with a question mark, don't even bother reading it. The publisher might think it's clever clickbait, but the smart reader knows it's an admission that the reporter doesn't know what they're talking about.

 

[AndY1]

People adapt to the new things readily, as long as it's a certain level of amazing, for instance iPhone 1 without copy/paste (though I'm still betting that omission was just Steve Jobs scheming). Then the Supercharger became the "must have" accessory, like the headphone jackless models that represent our future (which I am hoping to get as soon as possible)

Exactly! It's like Tesla fans got an ICE mindset and reasoning so fast, when few years ago we all early EV adopters argued how 95+% of trips will be done within electric range.
But they were still buying the Model S even though, that the SuperChargers weren't there yet, but knew, they were coming.
Same is with Bolt and CCS infrastructure of even better, because some CCS infrastructure already exists and will be growing.

But suddenly, a lack of super mega CCS infrastructure is a deal breaker, but when Model S launched, it wasn't?

I'm going to use the same question we used 4-5 years: 'How many times a year does an average person do more than 200 miles per day?'.
I believe, that the number is even lower than 4-5 years ago, when the number we inserted in the question was 100 miles per day.

 

[Cosmacelf]

The basis of the story is spot on.

GM got to Musk's goal for an "affordable" EV first. To drive the point home, GM made it even more embarrassing for Tesla by providing 20 miles more range than the Model S60.

Tesla should not have wasted so much time and resources on the Model X and their problematic doors and trying to make the P versions 0.1 second faster. Telsa took their eyes off the prize and got passed.

But that isn't what happened. GM is reportedly losing $5K or so per Bolt. They can afford that since it is their way of complying with CAFE standards (as opposed to buying more ZEV credits from Tesla). Tesla cannot afford to lose money with each car they build. The only way Tesla can build an equivalent car is to reduce battery costs, and the only way to do that was to build the gigafactory. Tesla has built/is building the gigafactory as quickly as possible.

I agree that the Model X has been a dud in many ways, but it isn't the cause for Model 3 delay.

 

[Reeler]

1. Someone needs to make a Chademo to CSS adapter to bridge the current infrastructure.
2. Tesla should make a SC to CSS adapter to allow higher utilization of their network and be able to build more stalls.
3. Tesla should make a SC to Chademo adapter for the same reasons as No. 2.

With Tesla's cash crunch, instant monetization of their existing infrastructure would help Tesla owners and the rest of the EV community.

 

[Cosmacelf]

Don't count on VW using all their consent decree funds to build out EV charge stations. A certain amount of that may go to build useless fuel cell filling stations.

 

[jbcarioca]

1. Someone needs to make a Chademo to CSS adapter to bridge the current infrastructure.
2. Tesla should make a SC to CSS adapter to allow higher utilization of their network and be able to build more stalls.
3. Tesla should make a SC to Chademo adapter for the same reasons as No. 2.

With Tesla's cash crunch, instant monetization of their existing infrastructure would help Tesla owners and the rest of the EV community.

It's actually Combined Charging Standard (CCS). Because CharIN (CCS) used an AC signal to handle network there is almost zero chance of a practical CHAdeMO/CCS adapter anytime soon. A Tesla/CCS adapter probably will happen once there is a substantial really fast CCS network in NA. Teska is a full member of CharIN so there is some political incentive for Tesla too. In reality the NA buildout will be European driven with VW Group in the lead due to diesel fraud penance.

There is a lot of flux in charging infrastructure but we know for sure that it will only get better fir everyone who has a plug-in vehicle, regardless of brand.

 

[SureValla]

I can't understand why no one seems to ask if GM is going to be losing money on each Bolt?
Isn't the reason they haven't built it before because it was too expensive?
Isn't the Bolt just a stunt to steal Tesla model 3 thunder by beating it to market and not caring about losses because they can sell Tahoes and Silverados to cover the cost overruns?
Shouldn't the real race be to build a mass market EV that anyone would like to own and turn a profit doing it?
I think the press is so very naive...

The premise of the NYT article is very wrong. Elon's SMP is to move the world to sustainable transportation. This is different than building a cheap 200 mi car.

As a result the most damning evidence against the bolt is right in the NYT article (as @mark alludes to above):

Because the high-mileage, zero-emission Bolt helps the company stay under the federal government’s fuel-economy standards, it perversely allows G.M. to keep selling more profitable, gas-guzzling cars, like the Tahoe S.U.V. As a result, G.M. could lose money on each Bolt and still find the overall project valuable to its bottom line.

This alone is a reason not to buy a bolt even if you can somehow agree its a better car than the Tesla. This goes against the very essence of Elon's SMP. If anything the bolt is a step backwards.

 

[Tam]

One problem of legacy car companies: They design an electric car as if it is an ICE. Take a look what under a Bolt's hood! There is no frunk!

 

[tomas]

This alone is a reason not to buy a bolt even if you can somehow agree its a better car than the Tesla. This goes against the very essence of Elon's SMP. If anything the bolt is a step backwards.

I don't buy this. If the Bolt sells at large volumes, it will put more BEVs on the road and in garages. There will be more advocates, more infrastructure, and less resistance. BEV will snowball. Sure, it may help GM with compliance.... but long-term effect will be to kill ICE. Does anyone who has driven a Tesla for a year or more want to ever go back to ICE as only car? BEV is addictive and contagious.

 

[SureValla]

I don't buy this. If the Bolt sells at large volumes, it will put more BEVs on the road and in garages. There will be more advocates, more infrastructure, and less resistance. BEV will snowball. Sure, it may help GM with compliance.... but long-term effect will be to kill ICE.

I see your point. I have a hard time saying if its right or wrong. Does having more advocates offset the subsidies those advocates are giving to tahoe's and silverados?

I wonder how much of the $37,000 price tag goes towards helping BEV vs helping gas guzzlers. I don't think its a 50/50 split. Is a 75% BEV and 25% SUV split make me feel ok? 90/10? I'm not sure.

 

[Jeff N]

One problem of legacy car companies: They design an electric car as if it is an ICE. Take a look what under a Bolt's hood! There is no frunk!

Just like this other fake EV-wannabe conversion sham!

 

[Jeff N]

It's actually Combined Charging Standard (CCS). Because CharIN (CCS) used an AC signal to handle network there is almost zero chance of a practical CHAdeMO/CCS adapter anytime soon.

It's a little more complicated but I think there are small circuit boards and custom chips available that take care of implementing the low-level CCS DC messaging protocol stack. Someone doing a CHAdeMO/CCS adapter just needs to use that along with an equivalent CAN bus board/chip and then drive all of that from their own CHAdeMO/CCS protocol conversion software. It's ugly but I see no reason why it couldn't be done.

I think the main reason this won't happen soon is because most new non-Tesla DC chargers for the next few years will already support both plug styles much like most gas pumps have hoses for regular and premium and sometimes diesel.