NZ Sept 2017 elections & Tesla

[AudubonB]

For those of us who try to keep abreast of things political around the world:

Can someone knowledgeable chime in about what the various outcomes of government formation might mean for Tesla's near-term fortunes in NZ? If not so complicated as the recent Norwegian elections were, the Kiwi situation still is rather difficult to parse from afar.

Thank you!

 

[strykeroz]

While we're just tourists here, we're into our 3rd week and have enjoyed the spectacle of an election full of new identities (to us). While the commentators are filling the airtime with speculation it looks like the main guy both major parties need to get onside to form a government (Winston, NZ First) is keen to take his time. There's speculation it may take weeks before they form government. If labor does, they'll need Winston plus the greens, if Nationals do they only need their usual conservative collaborators (ACT) and Winston or, at a long shot they could do it with ACT and the Greens if the numbers finally stack up the right way. That is unlikely though as Greens have said in the past they'd never form a government with Nationals and there may be something finicky in their internal rulebook that makes that a non-starter according to one of the stuffed shirts on the TV yesterday at least.

Greens have claimed they've shaped the debate during the election by making climate change an issue - and the new labor leader suggested she considered it their most important issue. That might indicate a more receptive future legislative agenda under them, but if politicians are similar here to where I'm from that may be entirely useless as a guide!

 

[FlyingKiwi]

My prediction is that NZ First will demand some baubles and minor concessions then supply the necessary votes to keep National in govt. So more of the same unfortunately. Not that either option will actually make much difference to EV adoption in general and Tesla in particular.

One of the National party's election promises was:
One in three cars in the Government fleet will be electric by 2021." However I expect these are going to be more city cars like nissan leafs etc than premium/long range electric vehicles ; And I don't really expect them to honour that pledge fully either. The only way I see Tesla getting a slice of that pie is if they do a deal on a fleet purchase of model S/X.. which won't happen according to Tesla policy of not discounting.

The alternative Labour/Greens coalition don't really have much more to offer, they have a similar target for govt fleet buying and were also going to reduce for businesses taxes payable on EV that are available to employees to use for non-work purposes. This would save a company about $6000/year in taxes on a new Model S 75kWh (~$130000 car) if my back of the envelope calcs are right.
Hard to say how much that would encourage businesses to buy EVs over ICEs. with new EVs starting at ~$60k for a base Ioniq EV. I don't see it spurring Tesla sales much, they are just too expensive for business buyers until the model 3 arrives in 2019.

There is little in the way of govt incentives to buy an EV in NZL.
There is an exemption of $62 per 1000km in road user charges that EVs are exempt from till at least 2021. And some govt funding to install some chargers in places (mostly 25kW and some 50kW DC chargers).

 

[AudubonB]

Subsequent to my posting this, one contact (who despises Winston Peters as a manipulative self-aggrandizer) writes:


Re elections - nothing clear yet - except that Winston Expletive Peters is "Kingmaker" again. He is a complete Expletive.
Really wish that the rumours of a National/Green rapprochement could be true - but unlikely. Labour+Green+Peters - might prove to have some positive effects (environmental for sure, the rest???) but will likely be riven by internal unrest; National+Peters - UGH.

 

[FlyingKiwi]

Having once sat in an Airport lounge a few feet from Winston and therefore overheard him talking to various people for three hours while waiting for a flight, I have to agree with your friend, everything about that man makes my skin crawl. I also agree with your friends description of the current situation, there really isn't a good outcome no matter which way Winston jumps.