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Obsolescence incoming (already)

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So there may well be a refresh of the M3 next year with a bigger battery and better performance.

Whilst I knew this would happen sooner or later, I was hoping for later. Then again, I’m planning on keeping this car until it breaks beyond repair so it shouldn’t really matter...

My BIG question, though, is whether the new 100kW/h battery pack can be retrofitted to existing M3s...
 
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So there may well be a refresh of the M3 next year with a bigger battery and better performance.

Whilst I knew this would happen sooner or later, I was hoping for later. Then again, I’m planning on keeping this car until it breaks beyond repair so it shouldn’t really matter...

My BIG question, though, is whether the new 100kW/h battery pack can be retrofitted to existing M3s...

Well I can't see anything arriving I the UK for about 2 years and I expect the current prices to stay as they are so any new additions will likely have a price increase.

In 2 years times us early adopters will also have saved fuel and I can't really see much depreciation on the cars as they are not your typical ICE vehicles, in fact I expect after 4 years and including savings on fuel that I should be able to break even on the car that is assuming Tesla don't annoy me any more I decide to cut ties with them
 
Well I can't see anything arriving I the UK for about 2 years and I expect the current prices to stay as they are so any new additions will likely have a price increase.

In 2 years times us early adopters will also have saved fuel and I can't really see much depreciation on the cars as they are not your typical ICE vehicles, in fact I expect after 4 years and including savings on fuel that I should be able to break even on the car that is assuming Tesla don't annoy me any more I decide to cut ties with them
You would have to drive a lot of miles to break even. My depreciation calculations are that I would get just over 50% for my LRAWD at the end of year 4. If you saved £0.12 per mile driven, that's around 180,000 miles you'd have to drive, or 3,750 miles per month.
 
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It was always on the cards and aligns to what I felt i was getting into when I took a Model 3. It's a big part of why I only leased, and only for 2 years. The development in the marketplace is going to be immense over the next decade, I fully expect the current Model 3 to look very old-hat within 3/5 years.
 
It was always on the cards and aligns to what I felt i was getting into when I took a Model 3. It's a big part of why I only leased, and only for 2 years. The development in the marketplace is going to be immense over the next decade, I fully expect the current Model 3 to look very old-hat within 3/5 years.

Exactly the same thought process I went through and have leased too.

Not sure how the Model 3 “not being your typical ICE car” protects them from depreciation. It’s exactly that reason why they are going to be more susceptible to it.
 
Not sure how the Model 3 “not being your typical ICE car” protects them from depreciation.

Is really quite simple. There is a second hand market. Fewer people will want ice in 2 years, but will also not want to spend over 40k for a decent ev.

No matter what advancement there is, unless they undercut the second hand market with new cars, 2019 model 3 will sell well.
 
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It was always on the cards and aligns to what I felt i was getting into when I took a Model 3. It's a big part of why I only leased, and only for 2 years. The development in the marketplace is going to be immense over the next decade, I fully expect the current Model 3 to look very old-hat within 3/5 years.

Really don't think that the Model 3 will look out 'old hat' in 5 years time given the current vehicles on the market that have been around with the same looks for much longer!

Not sure how the Model 3 “not being your typical ICE car” protects them from depreciation. It’s exactly that reason why they are going to be more susceptible to it.

Its not just about being an EV but Tesla doesn't have a large dealership network that is taking a cut of the pie or adding on top of the costs. The price of the Model 3 isn't discounted so people will know what the original price paid was.


Is really quite simple. There is a second hand market. Fewer people will want ice in 2 years, but will also not want to spend over 40k for a decent ev.

No matter what advancement there is, unless they undercut the second hand market with new cars, 2019 model 3 will sell well.

The cars are going to save people money per mile vs an ICE car so used car buyers will factor this in and be prepared to pay a higher price vs an ICE car, many won't 'get it' but the ones that do will set the trend in the right direction.

Another factor will be limited supply or should I say an artificially limited supply that will keep the used car market propped up.

This is of course all theory and if Tesla don't sort their act out with customer service then it will all fall apart.
 
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Is really quite simple. There is a second hand market. Fewer people will want ice in 2 years, but will also not want to spend over 40k for a decent ev.

No matter what advancement there is, unless they undercut the second hand market with new cars, 2019 model 3 will sell well.

The reason people don’t pile in to EV now is down to issues with range. Your 2 year old SR will still have the same ( inadequate) range to them in 2 years time as it does now. Fine, in another 4 or 5 years time, when the ‘current’ SRs at that time have enough range to satisfy the market them maybe then depreciation will hold up but , like any other new rapidly evolving tech early adopters pay a price. Personally, I think a genuine 400 mile range will be the watershed.
 
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Is really quite simple. There is a second hand market. Fewer people will want ice in 2 years, but will also not want to spend over 40k for a decent ev.

No matter what advancement there is, unless they undercut the second hand market with new cars, 2019 model 3 will sell well.
The rate of development is going to be key here, though. The law of diminishing returns means that a 2 year old ICE car isn't all that different to a brand new one.

From a motor/battery perspective at least, my suspicion is that things will move along at the kind of pace whereby a 4 year old Model 3 will represent the kind of development seen in the ICE world in 15 years and that will impact the price. We're already taking about 600 miles of range, 350kW charging and all sorts of new battery chemistry and we're 6? months into the Model 3 being in the UK.

When you look at a 4 year old Mondeo and see the power and range figures are ~5% that of a new one, and then look at a 4 year old Model 3 that has perhaps, 40% less range than a new one then I do wonder how appealing it will be.
 
You would have to drive a lot of miles to break even. My depreciation calculations are that I would get just over 50% for my LRAWD at the end of year 4. If you saved £0.12 per mile driven, that's around 180,000 miles you'd have to drive, or 3,750 miles per month.

Running an ICE car with a 0-60 of 4-6 seconds will run at a cost of around 20p per mile so if assuming I can charge at home for 2p per mile then that's 0.18p per mile, if I do 15k miles that is going to be a saving of around £2700 per year over 4 years thats around £11k

Now assuming I brought the car for £47k - £11k making it £36k after savings

Realistically I wouldn't be surprised to see a model 3 to be in the range of 25-30k but if they prove to be reliable and no problems then perhaps more around £30k. So for the price of 11k to drive a model 3 for 4 years is rather a good deal to me!

The reasons for depreciating a typical car are different to the Model 3 as the parts are *meant* to be longer lasting and require little maintenance, if the powertrain can prove to run for 500k miles and age not affecting the car then 100k miles and a few years isn't going to make a huge difference compared to your average ICE which would be on its last legs at this point requiring everything to be changed.

A 100k Ice engine vs a 100k electric motor picture would prove this point.
 
There’s no point thinking about theoretical depreciation and Robotaxis and other pipe dreams.

There’s no reason not to think a Model 3 won’t depreciate like an ICE car will. The only difference is that whilst in reliability and software update terms it may soften a bit, the rate of EV development as mentioned above would contribute to it depreciating more heavily due to that aspect.

Just because you wish it didn’t depreciate and can convince yourself of arguments why it wouldn’t - doesn’t mean it won’t. This rumoured 100kWh + Ludicrous model, if it replaces the current P+ or isn’t significantly more expensive, will already eat into the P+ residuals.
 
There’s no point thinking about theoretical depreciation and Robotaxis and other pipe dreams.

There’s no reason not to think a Model 3 won’t depreciate like an ICE car will. The only difference is that whilst in reliability and software update terms it may soften a bit, the rate of EV development as mentioned above would contribute to it depreciating more heavily due to that aspect.

Just because you wish it didn’t depreciate and can convince yourself of arguments why it wouldn’t - doesn’t mean it won’t. This rumoured 100kWh + Ludicrous model, if it replaces the current P+ or isn’t significantly more expensive, will already eat into the P+ residuals.

Yes there is also no point talking about theoretical deprecation about two different products just because they both have 4 wheels, ICE cars already depreciate faster than Tesla’s and the model 3 will have a wider market and limited used supply.

Nothing to do with robo taxis!

Just because you want Tesla’s to depreciate the same as ICE cars doesn’t mean they will, staying EV development or new models is something for the longer term 5+ years.
 
Similar sources told you there would definitely be an interior refresh for the S and X this fall - the third time it's been predicted. So I wouldn't make any strategies based on this - maybe it'll happen, more likely not quite as folks are imagining and not as soon.
 
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Yes there is also no point talking about theoretical deprecation about two different products just because they both have 4 wheels, ICE cars already depreciate faster than Tesla’s and the model 3 will have a wider market and limited used supply.

Nothing to do with robo taxis!

Just because you want Tesla’s to depreciate the same as ICE cars doesn’t mean they will, staying EV development or new models is something for the longer term 5+ years.
Why would I want Model 3s to depreciate heavily? I’m looking to buy one shortly.

I’m being realistic, plenty of other people seem to think it will be all but immune to depreciation because of XYZ or some imagined feature like Robotaxis or actual full self driving etc.

The rate of EV tech development will almost certainly guarantee a secondary depreciation curve imo. HW4, better cameras, bigger batteries, etc - things that won’t end up being available to retrofit - will make cars obsolete quicker than ICE equivalents imo.
 
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Why would I want Model 3s to depreciate heavily? I’m looking to buy one shortly.

I’m being realistic, plenty of other people seem to think it will be all but immune to depreciation because of XYZ or some imagined feature like Robotaxis or actual full self driving etc.

The rate of EV tech development will almost certainly guarantee a secondary depreciation curve imo. HW4, better cameras, bigger batteries, etc - things that won’t end up being available to retrofit - will make cars obsolete quicker than ICE equivalents imo.

Well your the one assuming that the model 3 will be the same or worse than ICE equivalents, there doesn’t need to be any robo taxis or other fantasy’s involved for the cars to keep their value better than an ICE.

Wish you all the best with your car and happy to be proven wrong in 3 years.
 
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The rate of EV tech development will almost certainly guarantee a secondary depreciation curve imo. HW4, better cameras, bigger batteries, etc - things that won’t end up being available to retrofit - will make cars obsolete quicker than ICE equivalents imo.

I presume you have looked at used Model S/X prices recently?

2014 AP1 85Ss are still over £30k, thats roughly 40-45% residuals at 5 years old, very few ICE cars come anything close to that. Over the next few years I doubt they will fall to much below £25k, as a MG EV with far less tech/range costs more than that, and Hyundai is charging nearly £35k for a Kona, Porsche £100k for a Taycan which has less EPA rated range.

Our 75D X was cheaper to buy than a SQ7, both are now worth about the same, add in running cost savings and our X is some £20k 'cheaper' to own in real terms over 3 years and 40k versus a SQ7. Going fowards which car is going to be in more demand on the used market, a diesel SUV or an EV SUV?

Finally residuals only matter if you sell, why would you sell if the car already does everything you want, and longterm ownership costs are so cheap?

If you must have the latest and best, then yes you will be constantly changing cars, in which case lease deals are fine.

But remind me how much a lease is on a P Model 3 at present? Our fully owned X is currently costing me £40/month in home charging costs, tyres £500 every 20k, and £650/year insurance, on going finance costs is £0.

We will be keeping it at least 8 years till the battery warranty is gone, how much would leasing a car for 8 years cost?
 
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