Depreciation is about supply and demand. The secondhand market for EVs will be playing catch-up with the new market for some years yet ie demand will exceed supply. Given that Tesla is several years ahead of the competition, I'm expecting the value to hold up extremely well. The secondhand market for ICE is different. That's a declining market so depreciation will be greater than for EVs.
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Obsolescence incoming (already)
- Thread starter ACarneiro
- Start date
I don’t think I’ve seen it mentioned in the thread, but I’d have thought the Model Y is probably the biggest threat to residuals than anything else. I wonder how many M3 owners would have chosen that variant if the MY had been available as well?
because the vast majority will want a car shaped car, I'll wager. If those people want a truck they'll get a Rivian. Cybertruck is a novelty few will buy.
Trucks out sell cars in the US, a X is classed as a 'mid sized' SUV, so not even considered to be a large vehicle.
Cybrertruck will outsell the Y in the US.
pow216
Member
250,000 is hardly “few”. I hope it’s a success. I don’t like trucks, but I’m tempted!
Jason71
Well-Known Member
I read a story the other day that showed that residuals for second hand EV's at the bottom end of the market are starting to go up.
I don't mean the depreciation has leveled out I means some are now worth more than they were 6 months ago. It's an interesting positive trend. And if you look the vast majority of older EV's are Leafs and Zoe's with Battery lease, the cost of which, is making up an ever increasing proportion of the cost of the vehicle. Not even sure how the leases work but if they keep doing it surely eventually they will actually have to replace the batteries in the older cars. since they will degrade over time?
There are also an increasing number of clean air zones. Birmingham goes live next year. Others are following. I imagine that will start to really hurt the residuals on Diesels, but might it not have the opposite effect on EV's?
I don't mean the depreciation has leveled out I means some are now worth more than they were 6 months ago. It's an interesting positive trend. And if you look the vast majority of older EV's are Leafs and Zoe's with Battery lease, the cost of which, is making up an ever increasing proportion of the cost of the vehicle. Not even sure how the leases work but if they keep doing it surely eventually they will actually have to replace the batteries in the older cars. since they will degrade over time?
There are also an increasing number of clean air zones. Birmingham goes live next year. Others are following. I imagine that will start to really hurt the residuals on Diesels, but might it not have the opposite effect on EV's?
Lots of good points on both sides here, but I'd make 2 points:
#2 for me has the chance to be a really killer. Selling my last car privately and the guy picking it up (for a garage) found spots of rust I had never noticed (and I was reasonably anal about keeping it looking nice) because 'thats where these go'. If the M3 develops too many predictably rusty spots we will be back in line with the ICE.
Range doesn't improve over time, but tripping, even in an SR+ gets better over time (more SC's installed, more, more reliable other options showing up. There will also be increased awareness of always being at 90% in the morning and working with the charging system to achieve longer distances. Speed seems to get better over time instead of worse, and unless hardware limited you keep getting the new updates and features. The Taxi firms running Teslas get enough publicity to hopefully alleviate the long term running worries of the new tech.
I think we have a good few points to say depreciation might be more limited than ICE. But the new car effect is still there.
Impact of a 100KWh pack will depend on pricing. It could come in at around the same prices (tech improvements, move over to the Y style wiring all to decrease costs), in which your car value takes a one off overnight hit. Or they could charge more for the range in which case almost no impact on us. Its a good way away in the UK anyway, so meh. Drive and enjoy
- 2nd hand market is a lemon market. Everything is priced assuming its going to fall apart the week after.
- Body and paint work on the 3 is only adequate. The running gear may be up to 500k miles with nary a service, but is the paintwork?
#2 for me has the chance to be a really killer. Selling my last car privately and the guy picking it up (for a garage) found spots of rust I had never noticed (and I was reasonably anal about keeping it looking nice) because 'thats where these go'. If the M3 develops too many predictably rusty spots we will be back in line with the ICE.
Range doesn't improve over time, but tripping, even in an SR+ gets better over time (more SC's installed, more, more reliable other options showing up. There will also be increased awareness of always being at 90% in the morning and working with the charging system to achieve longer distances. Speed seems to get better over time instead of worse, and unless hardware limited you keep getting the new updates and features. The Taxi firms running Teslas get enough publicity to hopefully alleviate the long term running worries of the new tech.
I think we have a good few points to say depreciation might be more limited than ICE. But the new car effect is still there.
Impact of a 100KWh pack will depend on pricing. It could come in at around the same prices (tech improvements, move over to the Y style wiring all to decrease costs), in which your car value takes a one off overnight hit. Or they could charge more for the range in which case almost no impact on us. Its a good way away in the UK anyway, so meh. Drive and enjoy
Jason71
Well-Known Member
True but does anyone think the Y isn't at least a year away from the UK. it will be hard for it to compete in the second hand market with 69 plate M3s since Y's will probably start at 21 plates. So that gives current M3 owners a bit of breathing space. ID3 might be more of a threat but the first ones out are the shorter range ones so again true LR/P competitor version still may not be until late 70 plate or even 21 plate.
That's what I am hoping anyway since I bought my M3
The first ones out don't have any software apparently...True but does anyone think the Y isn't at least a year away from the UK. it will be hard for it to compete in the second hand market with 69 plate M3s since Y's will probably start at 21 plates. So that gives current M3 owners a bit of breathing space. ID3 might me more of a threat but the first ones out are the shorter range ones so again true LR/P competitor version still may not be until late 70 plate or even 21 plate.
That's what I am hoping anyway since I bought my M3
They are a size down. Its like saying an A4 purchaser is threatened by a glut of cheap golf's. People may stop uplifting themselves into the larger 3 if they were really looking for a family hatch, but that will impact new sales more than second hand. A new ID.3 or a second hand AWD 3 would be a hard choice tho!
Jason71
Well-Known Member
I don't think it's quite the same thing. In a couple of years time when the only midsize BEV's available in volume in the secondhand market across 69/20/70/21 plate are M3's and ID3's and Leafs they will be competing with each other even if the equivalent ICE cars are not.
Rooster6655
Active Member
Yes exactly as the EV market is so small we can't compare it to the ICE market.
Yes good points.
1. If Tesla don't sort their act out then why would anyone buy a used one when they have to wait months for a car part if something goes wrong (Ask any technician at Tesla how long a part takes to come that they don't and they will say 6 weeks minimum then add a few more weeks due to Tesla time)
2. Yes paint work won't hold up unless you have applied a third party protection so this will likely be a Tesla thing but you can only knock so much off for paint work.
The main thing that people underestimate is the savings and how many people will jump at the chance to save money on fuel, take any taxi driver in the UK if they can get a Tesla for £30k and save £10k a year in fuel then consider them all sold, they really like to save money where possible!
The only used cars I see coming up will be people on leases (Assuming they don't go back to Tesla) or company cars where the BIK is the same regardless of age.
I'd be willing to place a bet on this but I'm not so sure Tesla stock would be the right avenue...
P.S I am very annoyed at Tesla currently due to lack of support for the UK market and think their current business practices are awful in dealing with customers.
Why amazes me is for every one who buys a brand new EV, another 16 are buying a brand new diesel.
Thats not just guaranteed future obsolescence, but pretty much obsolescence now, yet people still rather have a diesel.
Jason71
Well-Known Member
That's why I went for White
. In a couple of years time second hand M3's will be the new white Skoda Octavia of the taxi market. And who wouldn't want Netflix and Cuphead while waiting for their next passenger.I actually think that the real thing which will hold up values is superchargers.
My experience so far is that almost all other chargers are single or <4 cables per point. I have never waited at a Supercharger but almost every other CCS charger I have turned up at has been full, usually with Taxi / Private hire drivers filling up their Prius/whatever with free electricity paid for by the local council / tax payers (btw the Supercharger in Royal Docks London is also always full of private hire M3s and every time I am at the Washington one (Newcastle not US) there is a red Model S Taxi parked up enjoying free petrol too).
This for me rules out every other EV until they sort out something similar to Superchargers and will de facto protect Tesla values.
My experience so far is that almost all other chargers are single or <4 cables per point. I have never waited at a Supercharger but almost every other CCS charger I have turned up at has been full, usually with Taxi / Private hire drivers filling up their Prius/whatever with free electricity paid for by the local council / tax payers (btw the Supercharger in Royal Docks London is also always full of private hire M3s and every time I am at the Washington one (Newcastle not US) there is a red Model S Taxi parked up enjoying free petrol too).
This for me rules out every other EV until they sort out something similar to Superchargers and will de facto protect Tesla values.
It's such a vexed question - and only time will tell.
It could of course be argued that the Tesla residuals have been historically high because where else would you get such a car second hand BEV if not from Tesla in the years gone by? In terms of technology and big players entering the market the EV world stands a good chance of being turned on its head over the next few years which is why many of us have urged caution.
I would say the opposite is true, we've seen nothing from the like of VAG which is better than what Tesla have shown off even in 2012. 2020 £100K Porsche Taycan has less EPA range than a 2013 Model S, and barely any quicker than a 2014 P85D. The more 'big' players enter the market, the more it becomes clear how far ahead Tesla is.
That's before taking into account AP, Tesla unlike other brands are in control of the software. A 2020 Taycan already has outdated Mobileye hardware/software even before the owner has taken delivery, where as HW 3.0 AP coding is only starting to develop.
As I say, only time will tell.
This is, of course, the Internet and I'm sure we'll have no problem finding the perspectives that support our respective arguments to keep this thread alive for many a week. My only point is around my own perceived doubt about the 'stability' of Tesla's position causing me to take a more measured approach. I've little to say beyond that.
This is, of course, the Internet and I'm sure we'll have no problem finding the perspectives that support our respective arguments to keep this thread alive for many a week. My only point is around my own perceived doubt about the 'stability' of Tesla's position causing me to take a more measured approach. I've little to say beyond that.
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