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I think you are forecasting very reasonably. I'm on the verge of jumping off, having read about the manufacturing issues (which should have long-ago been resolved), the personnel issues, and increasing concern that once they do start building, I am losing confidence in sinking forty-something to 50 grand into one of their first year's production. If they cannot weld steel at this point (not a new technology to the industry), when they believe they have the issues resolved, they may later be surprised to find not all have been, and this would be one hell of a fix/recall. Further, I read this today, and find buying a competitive EV from a company who has been building cars for 90 years somehow more confidence-inspiring. Prior experience with this brand has been very satisfying.
Volvo's Polestar is launching a Tesla Model 3 rival for 2019
Actually, the chances of that are very low if you are in the first 50% of U.S. buyers. The S/X/Roadsters (sold since Jan 1, 2010) combined likely won't cross over the 200,000 sold in the U.S. mark until Q3, 2018 without an appreciable number of Model 3s. At that point, the credit sunsets for that quarter and the next.
The real issue is the production rate of the Model 3 once Tesla does enter the sunset period, whether it be Q1, Q2, or Q3 next year. At 80% of their 5k/week end of 2017 target rate which would be 4,000 vehicles/week, that's about 45,000 vehicles a quarter. That's 90,000 Model 3's for U.S. customers just during the sunset quarters. Of course, they are looking to expand production to 10,000/week in 2018.
A more plausible scenario with a delayed ramp looks like: 12,000 to 15,000 Model 3's made in 2017. Exit Q4 with 4,000/week production rate. Achieve 5,000/week sometime in Q1, 2018. Cross over 200,000 sold in the U.S. at the beginning of Q2, 2018. Possibly ship more vehicles overseas to make that so. Enter Q2, 2018 at 5,000. Achieve 7,000/week in Q3, 2018. So then it looks like:
2017: 12,000
2018 Q1: 44,000
2018 Q2: 55,000 <- start sunset
2018 Q3: 77,000
So the total number would then be 188,000 Model 3's with the full tax credit. Assuming the 475,000 or so reservation holders are 50% U.S., that's 237,500 buyers. Of that, almost 80% get the full tax credit.
There are additional scenarios for Q3 cross over, and that likely results in higher number of people getting full tax credit because of the higher rate of production by then if the s-curve is very delayed. It likely involves shipping Model 3's overseas, but very antsy Model 3 buyers.
It would almost make sense to ship Model 3's overseas until they hit near the 10k/week production rate. Then the two sunset quarters would be 220,000 or so vehicles, or almost everyone in line from the U.S. right now.
On the other hand I'm not on a crusade to not burn gasoline. There are other good cars out there too. BMW new 3 series should be released next year and will have a lot of technical innovation as well.
Yes, in the *future* we shall have some choice. I am not sure that is really a rival, but we can hope so. So, go for it, if you like.I think you are forecasting very reasonably. I'm on the verge of jumping off, having read about the manufacturing issues (which should have long-ago been resolved), the personnel issues, and increasing concern that once they do start building, I am losing confidence in sinking forty-something to 50 grand into one of their first year's production. If they cannot weld steel at this point (not a new technology to the industry), when they believe they have the issues resolved, they may later be surprised to find not all have been, and this would be one hell of a fix/recall. Further, I read this today, and find buying a competitive EV from a company who has been building cars for 90 years somehow more confidence-inspiring. Prior experience with this brand has been very satisfying.
Volvo's Polestar is launching a Tesla Model 3 rival for 2019
Fool me once, shame on them. Fool me twice, shame on me.Further, I read this today, and find buying a competitive EV from a company who has been building cars for 90 years somehow more confidence-inspiring. Prior experience with this brand has been very satisfying.
Volvo's Polestar is launching a Tesla Model 3 rival for 2019
I’ve owned two Volvo’s. They make Fiats look reliable.I think you are forecasting very reasonably. I'm on the verge of jumping off, having read about the manufacturing issues (which should have long-ago been resolved), the personnel issues, and increasing concern that once they do start building, I am losing confidence in sinking forty-something to 50 grand into one of their first year's production. If they cannot weld steel at this point (not a new technology to the industry), when they believe they have the issues resolved, they may later be surprised to find not all have been, and this would be one hell of a fix/recall. Further, I read this today, and find buying a competitive EV from a company who has been building cars for 90 years somehow more confidence-inspiring. Prior experience with this brand has been very satisfying.
Volvo's Polestar is launching a Tesla Model 3 rival for 2019
I don't care (too much) if my car is 1 or 3 months late, but I do care if the ramp takes so long that the S & X models eat up enough credits that I won't get the full $7,500
This has never been a consideration for me, because I'm looking at next summer for delivery. Most likely, we'll get the $2500 Oregon credit, as they just passed it and it is funded for six years (more or less).