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October 16 Automotive News

voip-ninja

Give me some sugar baby
Mar 15, 2012
4,124
5,242
Colorado
I think you are forecasting very reasonably. I'm on the verge of jumping off, having read about the manufacturing issues (which should have long-ago been resolved), the personnel issues, and increasing concern that once they do start building, I am losing confidence in sinking forty-something to 50 grand into one of their first year's production. If they cannot weld steel at this point (not a new technology to the industry), when they believe they have the issues resolved, they may later be surprised to find not all have been, and this would be one hell of a fix/recall. Further, I read this today, and find buying a competitive EV from a company who has been building cars for 90 years somehow more confidence-inspiring. Prior experience with this brand has been very satisfying.

Volvo's Polestar is launching a Tesla Model 3 rival for 2019

Tesla have plenty of people working there who should be knowledgeable enough about the welding process to get that fixed. The real problem would be if a critical part that was supposed to be supplied outside of Tesla was delayed or scrapped causing Tesla to move production in-house until a replacement could be found.

Which is why most manufacturers have multiple suppliers or at least have contingency plans for a part if it's not available.

The thing which isn't getting discussed is what Tesla is doing to satisfy the suppliers who have ramped as expected and are delivering parts in volume. They are meeting Tesla's timetable and they expect to be paid. This is such a large order that many of them would have had to hire additional help to meet Tesla's enormous order numbers... and they will expect to be paid or they might sue Tesla and/or walk... especially if Tesla is months or even a year behind the manufacturing from where they are supposed to be.

I have a feeling that behind the scenes this is FAR MESSIER than any of us could imagine and I have a feeling that Musk either handles stress extremely well or is chewing through a fistful of Tums about every 2 hours.

I do have to replace my current drive in late 2018 even if I'm able to squeeze a couple of "bonus" lease months out of BMW (not too hard to do with a phone call)... fortunately that gives me about 9+ months to figure out what I'm going to do.

Model 3 still looks exciting but until I can drive one, auto rags that get to drive everything get to drive and review them, it's too soon for me to say I'm 100% committed.
 

X Fan

Supporting Member
Supporting Member
Sep 29, 2015
2,432
6,303
Naples, FL & Cary, NC
Actually, the chances of that are very low if you are in the first 50% of U.S. buyers. The S/X/Roadsters (sold since Jan 1, 2010) combined likely won't cross over the 200,000 sold in the U.S. mark until Q3, 2018 without an appreciable number of Model 3s. At that point, the credit sunsets for that quarter and the next.

The real issue is the production rate of the Model 3 once Tesla does enter the sunset period, whether it be Q1, Q2, or Q3 next year. At 80% of their 5k/week end of 2017 target rate which would be 4,000 vehicles/week, that's about 45,000 vehicles a quarter. That's 90,000 Model 3's for U.S. customers just during the sunset quarters. Of course, they are looking to expand production to 10,000/week in 2018.

A more plausible scenario with a delayed ramp looks like: 12,000 to 15,000 Model 3's made in 2017. Exit Q4 with 4,000/week production rate. Achieve 5,000/week sometime in Q1, 2018. Cross over 200,000 sold in the U.S. at the beginning of Q2, 2018. Possibly ship more vehicles overseas to make that so. Enter Q2, 2018 at 5,000. Achieve 7,000/week in Q3, 2018. So then it looks like:

2017: 12,000
2018 Q1: 44,000
2018 Q2: 55,000 <- start sunset
2018 Q3: 77,000

So the total number would then be 188,000 Model 3's with the full tax credit. Assuming the 475,000 or so reservation holders are 50% U.S., that's 237,500 buyers. Of that, almost 80% get the full tax credit.

There are additional scenarios for Q3 cross over, and that likely results in higher number of people getting full tax credit because of the higher rate of production by then if the s-curve is very delayed. It likely involves shipping Model 3's overseas, but very antsy Model 3 buyers.

It would almost make sense to ship Model 3's overseas until they hit near the 10k/week production rate. Then the two sunset quarters would be 220,000 or so vehicles, or almost everyone in line from the U.S. right now.


Good analytics....I'm thinking q4 deliveries will be negligible (an early X experience provided me with a fair understanding of "Elon time") and due to teething pains, scaled deliveries won't start until Feb.

Although I have a Sep-Dec delivery for my first 3, I'm thinking around April will be the date.
 

gambit48

Member
Aug 1, 2017
845
520
NorCal
Honestly, after being 2 years late with the X, if they have any meaningful output of the Model 3 by mid-2018, I'd consider that a big improvement.

And until some true ultra-fast charging standard becomes approved and a mass roll out of those charging stations happens, the Tesla Supercharger network is still the ultimate trump card to me, no matter what competitors roll out.
 

gregincal

Active Member
Oct 26, 2012
3,775
2,359
Santa Cruz, CA
On the other hand I'm not on a crusade to not burn gasoline. There are other good cars out there too. BMW new 3 series should be released next year and will have a lot of technical innovation as well.

I'm not on a crusade to not burn gasoline either. I have a windy mountain commute, and the responsiveness and instant acceleration of an electric car makes my current Tesla such a superior driving experience to my previous Audis and BMWs that I'd cry if I had to go back to them. Neither car company seems in a hurry to make a compelling all electric sports sedan.
 

djplong

Member
Apr 3, 2013
505
383
NH
I'd hoped to get my Model 3 (LR) in November. If it will show up by December 31, and I live in New England, my plans won't change.

If it stretches past New Year's, then I have to start thinking. I really wanted the dual-motor variant. If Tesla crosses the 200K barrier late enough that I can still get the "LRD" with the full $7,500 credit, I'll be happy to wait.
 
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3Victoria

Active Member
May 8, 2016
1,763
3,425
Victoria, British Columbia
I think you are forecasting very reasonably. I'm on the verge of jumping off, having read about the manufacturing issues (which should have long-ago been resolved), the personnel issues, and increasing concern that once they do start building, I am losing confidence in sinking forty-something to 50 grand into one of their first year's production. If they cannot weld steel at this point (not a new technology to the industry), when they believe they have the issues resolved, they may later be surprised to find not all have been, and this would be one hell of a fix/recall. Further, I read this today, and find buying a competitive EV from a company who has been building cars for 90 years somehow more confidence-inspiring. Prior experience with this brand has been very satisfying.

Volvo's Polestar is launching a Tesla Model 3 rival for 2019
Yes, in the *future* we shall have some choice. I am not sure that is really a rival, but we can hope so. So, go for it, if you like.
 

Snerruc

Active Member
Apr 16, 2016
1,013
1,592
Palm Bay
I think you are forecasting very reasonably. I'm on the verge of jumping off, having read about the manufacturing issues (which should have long-ago been resolved), the personnel issues, and increasing concern that once they do start building, I am losing confidence in sinking forty-something to 50 grand into one of their first year's production. If they cannot weld steel at this point (not a new technology to the industry), when they believe they have the issues resolved, they may later be surprised to find not all have been, and this would be one hell of a fix/recall. Further, I read this today, and find buying a competitive EV from a company who has been building cars for 90 years somehow more confidence-inspiring. Prior experience with this brand has been very satisfying.

Volvo's Polestar is launching a Tesla Model 3 rival for 2019
I’ve owned two Volvo’s. They make Fiats look reliable.
 

david_42

Member
Oct 30, 2006
429
342
South of Portland, OR
I don't care (too much) if my car is 1 or 3 months late, but I do care if the ramp takes so long that the S & X models eat up enough credits that I won't get the full $7,500

This has never been a consideration for me, because I'm looking at next summer for delivery. Most likely, we'll get the $2500 Oregon credit, as they just passed it and it is funded for six years (more or less).
 

R.S

Active Member
Mar 8, 2015
1,196
1,080
Munich, Bavaria, Germany
This has never been a consideration for me, because I'm looking at next summer for delivery. Most likely, we'll get the $2500 Oregon credit, as they just passed it and it is funded for six years (more or less).

Next summer will be an issue, in terms of credits. If they reach 200k in Q1, you will still have Q2 for full credits, if they take till Q2, you still have Q3.

The hard thing to know is if they can make it past Q2 and if they can deliver your car in Q3. Otherwise you will still get the halve credit, which isn't too bad.
 

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