OFFICIAL BUTTON WATCH

[powertoold]

It's a bummer, but I don't think anyone is surprised. Meanwhile, I enjoyed this video with the ancient technology 8.2:

There's also this nugget. We all get an update to Tesla Vision(TM), Soon(TM)?

https://twitter.com/x/status/1392428986001592321

 

[MyMYLRnw]

So after software update next week my Tesla will no longer use radar??? Seems like a step forward for FSD and 2 steps back for “advanced safety features”.

 

[mikes_fsd]

So after software update next week my Tesla will no longer use radar??? Seems like a step forward for FSD and 2 steps back for “advanced safety features”.

Confirming safety part of "We had to focus on removing radar & confirming safety." seems to contradict your assumption!

 

[diplomat33]

So after software update next week my Tesla will no longer use radar??? Seems like a step forward for FSD and 2 steps back for “advanced safety features”.

I could be wrong but I think removing the radar is only in FSD Beta V9. It is not in the software that the overall fleet has yet. Remember FSD Beta V9 is using new camera vision software, that we don't have yet, that is designed to do FSD without radar. So if we get a regular software update next week that is not FSD Beta V9, it will probably still use radar.

 

[boonedocks]

I could be wrong but I think removing the radar is only in FSD Beta V9. It is not in the software that the overall fleet has yet. Remember FSD Beta V9 is using new camera vision software, that we don't have yet, that is designed to do FSD without radar. So if we get a regular software update next week that is not FSD Beta V9, it will probably still use radar.

The way Elon tweets there is absolutely no way to know "what he meant". As always we will ALL just have to wait and see what we get.

 

[powertoold]

I could be wrong but I think removing the radar is only in FSD Beta V9. It is not in the software that the overall fleet has yet. Remember FSD Beta V9 is using new camera vision software, that we don't have yet, that is designed to do FSD without radar. So if we get a regular software update next week that is not FSD Beta V9, it will probably still use radar.

I'm pretty sure Elon is saying that normal AP will be using vision only soon. Vision only isn't only related to fsd beta. If Tesla is going to go vision only, then it should first be validated with normal AP: small steps and then bigger steps, etc.

The thing I'm not sure about is whether Tesla has already validated vision only. Are they going to put vision only in shadow mode next week? Or have they already validated and now going vision only next week? I'm going with the latter.

Either way, it's a big step for the vision only approach (if Tesla is releasing any vision only variant to production within the next few weeks).

 

[diplomat33]

I'm pretty sure Elon is saying that normal AP will be using vision only soon. Vision only isn't only related to fsd beta. If Tesla is going to go vision only, then it should first be validated with normal AP: small steps and then bigger steps, etc.

The thing I'm not sure about is whether Tesla has already validated vision only. Are they going to put vision only in shadow mode next week? Or have they already validated and now going vision only next week? I'm going with the latter.

Either way, it's a big step for the vision only approach (if Tesla is releasing any vision only variant to production within the next few weeks).

Thanks.

Yes, it is a huge step if Tesla does release "vision only" to the wide fleet. That is why Tesla is taking their time and has not released it yet. They need to be diligent about confirming safety.

I hope Tesla really takes their time to make sure everything works. The last thing Tesla needs is another AP accident with "vision only" where the investigation shows that the camera vision got confused. There would be calls for Tesla to put radar back in.

 

[DarkandStormy]

Remember when "the button" was 10 days away?

 

[powertoold]

I would still be surprised if Tesla widely releases fsd beta within a month or two. It wouldn't make much sense to widely release it until it is as reliable as current NoA on highway. I know some of you don't think highway NoA is that great, but I've had good experiences with it lately.

Personally, I'm still very excited about where Tesla is going with FSD. It's funny because once Tesla Vision (TM) is used for production AP, it should have similar or slightly better performance than current AP. All the haters will say that Elon is selling more snake oil, as usual. But we all know it's a "gigantic" step for AP.

 

[Knightshade]

I would still be surprised if Tesla widely releases fsd beta within a month or two. It wouldn't make much sense to widely release it until it is as reliable as current NoA on highway. I know some of you don't think highway NoA is that great, but I've had good experiences with it lately.

Personally, I'm still very excited about where Tesla is going with FSD. It's funny because once Tesla Vision (TM) is used for production AP, it should have similar or slightly better performance than current AP. All the haters will say that Elon is selling more snake oil, as usual. But we all know it's a "gigantic" step for AP.

Keep in mind FSD beta isn't really an FSD beta.

It's just L2 on city streets.

Nothing in the "FSD Beta" made any changes at all to non-city/highway behavior, nor was anything in the "FSD Beta" better than L2.

It's a crappy nickname Elon is using- it's not even what Tesla calls it in its own code (or internally, per the CA DMV memo)


From the sounds of his latest tweet what we're looking at now is:

Radar-removed GENERAL fleet update on EXISTING capabilities (so basically just AP through NoA without radar) in "a week" or so.

Then very limited (same 1-2k folks I'd imagine) city streets without radar V9 "a couple weeks later"

Then wider release (button?) of city streets without radar V9 "a couple months" later.

None of it offering higher than L2.

Take all dates in quotes with a Dogecoin sized grain of salt.... but it means probably no button before this fall at the earliest.

For sure no robotaxis this year. Again.

(unless someone thinks they can go from L2 city streets to L4 or better robotaxis in less than 3 months of widespread testing)

 

[mikes_fsd]

Keep in mind FSD beta isn't really an FSD beta.

It's just L2 on city streets.

Nothing in the "FSD Beta" made any changes at all to non-city/highway behavior, nor was anything in the "FSD Beta" better than L2.

LOL, you of all people should not be muddying the waters with this non-sense.

FSD Beta was the rollout of city-driving feature (in L2 domain).
Just like Tesla described way back in 2016 that FSD will be rolled out over the air in features (not as a big-bang single release).

So, yes, FSD Beta is still FSD Beta - of the City Driving subset of the FSD suite.

 

[run-the-joules]

Roses are red
Grass is green
Elon's a liar
You all have seen

 

[powertoold]

By the way, I got a button in my car yesterday. Unfortunately, I couldn't get rid of it and had to force a reboot.

 

[fcastrillo86]

calling it now, FSD v9 update (limited or button/wide release) will happen with 2021.4.20. It'd be very on-brand for Elon/Tesla. There was a missed opportunity to do it on actual 04/20/21 but I figure it was still undergoing the necessary QA and safety tests.

We've been updating in such small version number increments with a few weeks between releases that I could actually see a 4.20 update landing in about a 1-2ish month timeframe that Elon indicated in his most recent tweets.

 

[Knightshade]

LOL, you of all people should not be muddying the waters with this non-sense.

Except everything I wrote was based on Tesla/Elons own statements.

If you think they're talking nonsense that's on you.

FSD Beta was the rollout of city-driving feature (in L2 domain).

That is literally what I wrote that you just called nonsense.


Since you apparently stopped reading halfway through my post here it is again:

Keep in mind FSD beta isn't really an FSD beta.

It's just L2 on city streets.

 

[mikes_fsd]

Except everything I wrote was based on Tesla/Elons own statements.

False:
here are Tesla's statements that have been inline since the introduction of Full Self-Driving Capability.

You want to keep muddying the waters...

That is literally what I wrote that you just called nonsense.

What I called non-sense you trying to re-define what FSD Beta is.
Here it is right here...

Keep in mind FSD beta isn't really an FSD beta.

You don't get to decide what FSD Beta is, the people creating and release the product get to decide.

Move along now.

 

[Knightshade]

False:

No, it's not.

I cited the CA DMV document, and Elons own tweets.

They say exactly what I did.

At no point did I discuss what the commercial product 'FSD capability' means so your cite is to a thing I didn't even discuss.


You seem really interested in making up an argument nobody is even having here.

You don't get to decide what FSD Beta is, the people creating and release the product get to decide.

Correct.

In fact, I cited what those people said

Have you even read the DMV document? Doesn't sound like it.

Because in it, tesla says exactly what I just told you


You instead cited the description of a product being sold on the website.

Which is NOT the thing being called "FSD beta" by Elon, and being called City Streets by Tesla themselves- because it's just the city streets part, and explicitly at L2.

 

[gearchruncher]

The work we had to do for pure vision driving was needed for FSD, so much more progress has been made than it would seem.

I like how he's already softening the message for what v9 will be in terms of functionality. His previous posts were how it was a quantum leap and all, and now it's "much more progress than it looks like"

 

[Two-rocks]

Pure vision works fantastic for auto wipers.

oh, wait.

 

[DarkandStormy]

I like how he's already softening the message for what v9 will be in terms of functionality. His pervious posts were how it was a quantum leap and all, and now it's "much more progress than it looks like"

He is the master of over promising and under delivering.

It went from "you can fall asleep" to "it will drive better than a human." It went from button coming in 10 days, to maybe in a month or two. Etc.