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OFFICIAL BUTTON WATCH

Knightshade

Well-Known Member
Jul 31, 2017
13,157
21,769
NC
Do any of Elon's timeline tweets count as a promise?

In the vernacular sense, sure.

Legally? Likely not. Nothing he said is shown to you during the purchase process or as part of any contracts between you and Tesla.

It might color the jurys opinion in your favor if you get away with mentioning what he said in court of course, but they don't represent any sort of contract between you and him.


If his tweets (and Tesla's own webpages) don't count as a promise, why do they continued to be treated as such?

What you are promised in the list of "Here is literally what you are buying when you check this box on this page to buy it" is different than "What someone posted to the general public on twitter"


What exactly is a timeline promise?

To my knowledge Tesla, in anything legally binding, has never promised any specific timeline for L4+ driving.

THAT said.... they DID actually make specific timeline promises they broke... ironically in the POST 3/19 pages.

They promised both stoplight control AND driving on city streets as part of FSD by the end of 2019.

They failed to deliver either.

Then the page promised both by the end of 2020 and they failed to deliver the second one.

But they also made the disclaimer broader in the post 3/19 era- adding the additional "out" of achieving reliability far in excess of human drivers as demonstrated by billions of miles of experience before they enable any feature.


If you want another broken promise, a more active one, check out the CURRENT full description of Summon on the purchase page where it claims "Activated by the Tesla App, your parked car will come find you anywhere in a parking lot"

When of course that's only true for very small values of "parking lot" given how limited the range on it is.




There’s no reason for them to stop working with on it till all cars sold pre 2019 are off the road.

I mean- they'd have to continue to show actual effort and progress too, not just SAY they're working on it but not actually improve or update anything for years.
 

Knightshade

Well-Known Member
Jul 31, 2017
13,157
21,769
NC
Doubt that will be necessary. As soon as a class action lawsuit is brought up, Tesla will be quick to settle. And even before that, if you ask for a refund, I wouldn't be surprised if Tesla will grant you your wish.


AFAIK a number of folks HAVE asked for refunds... including circumstances like they bought FSD on a lease and the lease ended with nothing delivered (something that has been happening since late 2019 at this point)... they've all been given nothing.

As to quick to settle... define quick I guess? Folks who bought AP in 2016/17 filed a class action because the initially promised stuff was basically unusable for a long while.... Tesla did settle but it was over a year after the lawsuit was filed... and the payments were barely more than 5% of the price paid (though in that case they did eventually deliver stuff, just late.... non-delivery would be a different situation)
 

Cheburashka

Active Member
Jan 29, 2018
2,520
3,637
Los Gatos, CA
So the refresh S/X will begin delivery in June, allegedly. Wonder if that will coincide with the release of the button.

There's also been speculation that the refresh no longer has a radar, wonder if true or not..
 

Knightshade

Well-Known Member
Jul 31, 2017
13,157
21,769
NC
Last edited:

diplomat33

Average guy who loves autonomous vehicles
Aug 3, 2017
8,387
11,696
Terre Haute, IN USA
I don't really understand how running anything in so called shadow mode prepares for button day though.

I think the idea is that Tesla will collect data on shadow mode to help get FSD Beta for full deployment. So after shadow mode, Tesla will release the button to allow everyone to get FSD Beta.
 

Knightshade

Well-Known Member
Jul 31, 2017
13,157
21,769
NC
I don't really understand how running anything in so called shadow mode prepares for button day though.


Depends on a few things.

For one- it could be collecting edge case stuff for the vision only system

For another- there's actually a reasonable case it COULD be doing something actually different here-- specifically fact-checking the vision only NNs against the input from the still-being-used radar.

We know Tesla has code that uses cars with LIDAR to verify/calibrate ground truth of their vision-distance pseudo-lidar.

So perhaps these minority fleet branches are doing something similar checking the vision-only results against the radar 'truth'

Since Elon did say they need to confirm the vision only system before they roll out the next stuff, that would exactly fit with what we've been told.
 

diplomat33

Average guy who loves autonomous vehicles
Aug 3, 2017
8,387
11,696
Terre Haute, IN USA
Depends on a few things.

For one- it could be collecting edge case stuff for the vision only system

For another- there's actually a reasonable case it COULD be doing something actually different here-- specifically fact-checking the vision only NNs against the input from the still-being-used radar.

We know Tesla has code that uses cars with LIDAR to verify/calibrate ground truth of their vision-distance pseudo-lidar.

So perhaps these minority fleet branches are doing something similar checking the vision-only results against the radar 'truth'

Since Elon did say they need to confirm the vision only system before they roll out the next stuff, that would exactly fit with what we've been told.

So who thinks the button will get delayed again because Tesla will discover that the vison-only is not quite ready yet?
 
Last edited:

powertoold

Active Member
Oct 10, 2014
3,021
6,505
USA
So who thinks the button will get delayed again because Tesla will discover that the vison-only is not quite ready yet?

Very likely, but Tesla / Elon wouldn't announce or mention it for months if they haven't already validated the approach to a large extent.

Vision-only for distance, position, and velocity prediction is unprecedented in any application. As far as I know, there's no application that's remotely close to the accuracy needed for driving and safety critical features like AEB. False-positive vision predictions would be very problematic for AEB.
 

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