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OFFICIAL BUTTON WATCH
- Thread starter Drrobmiller
- Start date
After they retrofit about 100,000 S/X cars
HUGE difference between technologies that say "you are less likely to die in an accident if it occurs" and something literally called "Full Self Driving." Nobody wants to be in any accident, they are a hassle even if you are uninjured. So the moral hazard of post-collision safety gear is minor. The issue with something that any reasonable person would understand by name means that they don't have to pay attention is completely different.
It's hilarious that we're arguing that thus is likely to be so bad, that anyone that uses it will rapidly understand it's so dangerous that when on, their level of attention needs to drastically increase over human driving. This will mean 95% of people don't even use it anymore, so it has no large impact. This is where Tesla FSD is- just give us the damn thing, we know it will be awful, we promise to pay more attention, we'll even argue that is safer if that gets you to give it to us.
As Kaparthy says, we're in an interesting sliver of time, but I don't think he quite meant this
I fully agree that Tesla could focus on safety and use a lot of the tech they have to improve it. But these would be disconnected from FSD- driver monitoring and warning, even when FSD is not active. But it's pretty clear Tesla isn't doing this- they are full bore on active, autonomous driving, even to the point they are willing to remove these more passive features at times to keep shipping cars. I wish they were going more down the route of the stop control alert that FSD owners have now, but without you having to pay $10K to get it.
The current rumor, based on people looking at Website and App code is that a reprice is coming, It's going UP ($14k), and Elon is still talking about subscriptions, and the app now has code to support that.
Nothing looks like they are backing down on their optimism or the idea that city streets beta will be released to anyone that wants it soon. Remember on pre-2019 cars, all you are getting for your FSD purchase is the car stopping for traffic controls.
AlanSubie4Life
Efficiency Obsessed Member
After they retrofit about 100,000 S/X cars
Obviously this is not necessary. These FSD buyers can just get new cars! (They would not need to buy FSD to get these features, since they would always be active if enabled.) That is life. Always forward!
Also depending on capability (false positive rate) the driver monitoring might not be necessary for every feature. Not sure how that will all work out. Probably some of these features will be able to be turned off if they’re false triggering all the time, so I could see them rolling them without including the DMS gating.
Name is definitely unfortunate for an L2 system. But we’ll see about this. To be clear, I was talking about this in the context of background active safety measures (which people would know about and might tend to rely upon) - I was NOT talking about when automated driving is enabled, which could be quite a different situation.
I suspect some of these features will be back “soon.” This is the way.
I think that probably right now they are dealing with the fact that they can’t make these additional safety features work yet, not that they have consciously chosen not to do them.
To some extent this is probably because of their focus on their goal (which sort of seems like letting the goal of “perfect” be the enemy of the good). So it’s a little bit of lack of focus on these features, and also they need to make them work when relying on vision (see radar removal side effects), which obviously is what they have to rely on for most of these features, since radar cannot do many of them.
I do think it’s probably unlikely that we’ll see these roll out prior to some form of FSD. But maybe not - maybe they’ll give up or have enough capability at some point that it will just make sense to add them in even if FSD is still a struggle.
I don’t expect people would have to pay for FSD for any of them, assuming their HW is capable.
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Man, I am still so surprised when I see this. Tesla's website has clearly said since 2016 that your car has the HW needed for FSD. Why is everyone OK with this not being true and it being "obvious" that you'll need to get a new car or pay for a HW upgrade?
I usually see it being said by people that have HW3 and interior cameras and feel confident their car is OK.
How would you feel if Tesla just went "we've stopped any dev on HW3. It was never going to work. HW4 is the future. It's not retrofittable."
AlanSubie4Life
Efficiency Obsessed Member
I would feel fine. This is the way. I recognized when I bought FSD that that was a distinct possibility and that further retrofits were not guaranteed.
It’s about expectations. I never expected anything. It’s a toy. I do hope for improved active safety at some point, but I expected it to be a long road. In the meantime I have beeping reminders at traffic lights (worth at least $500 of the $3k), and some spurious speed limit adjustments (worth -$100).
Computers and technology are rapidly obsoleted. Expecting continued development after more than about 3-4 years is more than I could ever expect from my car when I purchased it. It’s just the way things work. I’ve seen tons of improvement in my car since I bought it. Probably approaching the asymptote now though.
Not quite to the point where everything is gravy, yet, but we will see what happens.
Again, it’s about expectations. Have realistic low expectations, understanding how hardware works, and disappointment and upset are less likely.
(And in regards to the original quote - the people who don’t have capable HW would just not get the features, there won’t be an option to pay for them - what I wrote was unclear.)
Anyway, where is The Button? That would be worth $1k to me, even if it doesn’t do much.
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In other words, blame the customer for believing Tesla when they are specifically told something.
It's so weird that we have such asymmetric assumptions. Tesla, the experts in this hardware, tell us it's enough for FSD (since 2016, uninterrupted). They literally advertise that. But us customers are supposed to know that is unreasonable, and they are clearly being stupid here, and we should ignore it and give them a pass on that statement, even though we have WAY less information than they do.
This is how a lot of the law works- if one side has much more information than the other, the law biases against them in a disagreement. Generically, if you write a contract, and it's missing a clause or protection that leads to a dispute, courts rule against the contract writer (vs signer) as they were the ones with the time and knowledge to have most efficiently fixed that. This is a case where Tesla literally said something is true and it isn't.
My expectation is that what Tesla had in writing during my car purchase would be true. Why is that unreasonable, and why should I have known they were insane? I agree your attitude is a positive and realistic one that likely serves you well, but the world works on people actually doing what they say they will, especially when they said that in order tog get you to buy their product. If we give that up, then what protection do consumers have at all in any transaction?
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That doesn't get reported though, nor added to the collective consciousness.
Every article about the MS Plaid describes breathlessly what the car can do. Practically every article about Teslas that is not about a crash will list all the marketing descriptions: Smart Summon will bring your car to you, Auto (whatever) feature will do this or that.
Very rarely will they say how useless or awful something is, not the collective rating given by actual drivers. Most things I read in comments are people saying "I never use Smart Summon", "Auto Lane Change doesn't work in heavy traffic", "Most FSD features are useless", "Auto Wipers/High Beams don't work well".
Most of the features really only work when there are no other cars around. Some people have a good experience, but many don't. Why isn't that the story? Until the crash articles get written, then they are more critical.
The NO DEMOS, NO REFUNDS policy kinda tears a hole in this.
AlanSubie4Life
Efficiency Obsessed Member
I’m not blaming any customer and I would understand if a customer wanted to go into arbitration or court or whatever. It makes sense and I can understand it.
I can only control myself though, and I have my mental framework of how the world generally works, and what to expect from any company that is advertising a great new product.
I’m not making an assessment about whether lawsuits would hold up. They might.
Personally I have no interest or real feeling like I should be interested in going to court. Just doesn’t register for me.
I’m not sure how to answer that. I’m not sure if that expectation is reasonable. It depends. I go through life guided by experience. All products come with shortcomings, and ways they do not quite live up to their billing, and have to be carefully evaluated. I don’t always evaluate correctly, and yes it is true that information is usually asymmetric. It’s my goal as a consumer to remove as much asymmetry as possible before purchase by educating myself. For large purchases this is much more important so I usually put more time in to understand everything I can.
I didn’t buy FSD with my car (only bought EAP). I waited a bit to gather some more info and see what features were rolling, and then paid $3k (I should have taken advantage of the $2k offer). As I understand it, I purchased something that may be an L2 driver assist at some point. And maybe it will include The Bonus Button.
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I think the people (including me) that paid $8k to $10k expect a bit more than "L2 driver assist."
I think I'm pretty ok with them not delivering the fact that I could be at work, request my car to come get me, and it actually drives itself to me.
I think I'm even pretty ok with not pulling up to the curb at dinner, getting out, and then telling the car to go park somewhere (even though Tesla talks about that right now.)
What I expect to be delivered for my purchase (including hardware upgrades if they need) is AP on highways with hands off the wheel and AP on surface streets with hands off the wheel. Surface streets to include traffic intersections and circles, right and left turns, lane keeping and automatic speed limit. All with hands off. If Tesla can deliver all that, I'll feel like I "got my money’s worth."
...But, if that "purchase" gets you nothing, you're OK with that too, since that's how technology works sometimes, and you have to be realistic. Tesla can use that money to develop new cars for other people, or bump up Elon's $60B per year compensation package.
Franky, I'd be fine if they released FSD in a not quite-full version, where it drives on most city streets safely, but it will make you take over when the AI is not certain it can make the right decision, like in the above mentioned unprotected left turns, cops directing traffic, etc. The current AP and Navigate on AP also make you take over sometimes and people are fine with that.
I just really hope they won't delay a partially but safely working version of city street AP just because they gave it a stupid name (FSD) originally and now they want to make it really FULL self driving.
I just really hope they won't delay a partially but safely working version of city street AP just because they gave it a stupid name (FSD) originally and now they want to make it really FULL self driving.
KArnold
Active Member
I didn't think the brand new, redesigned Plaid had a camera-based DMS. No? If they are planning on a retrofit I'd expect it to be there now. I would hope the latest and supposedly greatest model you can buy today is not going out the door obsolete on day 1.
Is Plaid using the same torque-based DMS? Maybe I missed the camera.
Yah. But now it’s essentially a buyer beware thing. Everybody who knows Tesla knows that this FSD next month thing has been going on for 5 years. ..and probably will for years to come. Nothing wrong with buying FSD, but be happy with what it does now because it’s doubtful it will change for years.
Jmho.
I bought AP2 in October 2016 on a Model X. How was I supposed to be buyer beware and know that "all Tesla cars include the HW needed" was false?
Yes, anyone doing this in about 2019 or later (when Tesla themselves conveniently moved the goalposts too) has a lot of data to operate on and research to be done on Tesla's autonomy timelines and promises. There was no data to operate on in 2016/2017 besides what Tesla told us.
Yah. Exactly. Earlier buyers had an expectation of delivery of the projected capabilities of FSD. But now anybody that does any research or talks to any Tesla owner knows that FSD isn’t and won’t be real for years. Quite honestly I would buy it again anyway because we have seen incremental improvements of FSD capabilities. We are buying an X or Y in the next 6 months (we have a reservation for an X...just in case) and we will buy FSD again. But I don’t expect it to do anything like the projections and we are okay with that. I think Tesla will be marketing this way for years. I don’t think it’s really a scam..but it is a stretch.
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