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Any ICE car will last past 175k if you rebuild the motor, tranny, etc at some point. Same with Tesla. No way will it last to 500k without needing major work.
My 2016 Model X is at 166,500 miles as of today and have not done any major work.
Hoping to get another 150k out of it before the 8yr infinite mile warranty on motors and battery pack run out.
 
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Any ICE car will last past 175k if you rebuild the motor, tranny, etc at some point. Same with Tesla. No way will it last to 500k without needing major work.
There are elevators in NYC which are literally over 100 years old running on original motors.

Just completed 3 years on my Model 3. Just had one charging door replacement in 3 years (done with minimal fuss by a the guy who came to my home and took 10 minutes).
 
Yeah, why would the battery or motor need replacing? Those are sealed units. And there are no buttons to fail, the brakes are not used much and I have test strips to see if the brake fluid is getting contaminated. The lights are all LED and much of the body work is aluminum. I haven't been in an accident in 30 years.

I imagine I'm gonna need to reupholster the car over time (of course there are so many of these I'll find seats in a junk yard), and probably could wrap it when the paint starts to fade (although I have ceramic protection on it).

I was truly inspired by that Volvo they were advertising 5 years ago that had 6 million miles on it, and I dearly love this car.
 
Considering my OTHER choice was a Model S 60 (about the same price) I can lose almost a 1/3rd of the range on my Lithium Ion batteries (that "loose" their capacity faster than Lithium Ion) before I will be down to the range of my second choice, so probably gonna be good for all that time. Windings deteriorating sounds pretty hinky, I have only lost one electric motor in my life, and I have had a LOT of them. Even if it does, gotta figure I can just steal the motor from another junked ones of these SUPER popular cars. It's not like rebuilding an ICE.
 
Considering my OTHER choice was a Model S 60 (about the same price) I can lose almost a 1/3rd of the range on my Lithium Ion batteries (that "loose" their capacity faster than Lithium Ion) before I will be down to the range of my second choice, so probably gonna be good for all that time. Windings deteriorating sounds pretty hinky, I have only lost one electric motor in my life, and I have had a LOT of them. Even if it does, gotta figure I can just steal the motor from another junked ones of these SUPER popular cars. It's not like rebuilding an ICE.

Thats the problem. There is zero aftermarket support for Tesla and changes or repairs require hacking or Toolbox access. Unlike ICE, Tesla makes it especially hard to do any work on these cars or have access to parts.

Even Lotus has more aftermarket parts support than Tesla.

200k isn't that much for modern cars. My Ford Ranger has that much and it's basically just had regular service. I bought and installed a suspension rebuild kit for $99. I bought new shocks off Amazon for $80 for it. That's the kind of support you need to have if you expect a car to last a while.
 
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Latest estimate - A month or two away from wide beta. I know they are making progress and V9 is a big leap forward, but the anticipation is killing me!


At least Elon admits that it is hard to predict. The fact is that Tesla is still building the camera vision. I believe they are making progress, but trying to accurately predict when Tesla will "solve FSD", based on how much "vision" they have, is futile.
 
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