We've seen at least one FSD Beta in Canada. Toronto I think it was. I presume it was official and not hacked. Don't know what the official numbers are for Canada, nor whether the current expansion includes more in Canada.
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- Thread starter Drrobmiller
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EVNow
Well-Known Member
Found it. This was as of end of Q3 '17.
So, if we assume that was mostly US - we get to 20k to 30k cars with FSD in '17. Definitely the take rate of 35% would have gone down with cheaper 3/Y - as well as repeated slippage of date. Still - would be surprised if we have nearly 100k US cars with FSD now out of a total of > 900k cars sold in US to date.
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Knightshade
Well-Known Member
I don't know that take rate on 80-140k dollar cars ( which was literally EVERY AP2 car ever sold) tells us much about the take rate today when the vast majority of the fleet is 40-60k dollar cars.
EVNow
Well-Known Member
My estimate is 10%.
With over 900k US sales till date - even 10% takes us to ~100k.
Knightshade
Well-Known Member
So 100 days max to get everyone (with a too low to qualify at all score) on the beta
And realistically not 100% will sign up for it anyway.
FalconFour
Member
This is a good point - $10k as an option is practically a brick wall barrier for new car purchases, but ... what was it, $200 a month, cancel any time? I haven't heard anyone saying that's what they did, but I imagine it'll be pretty compelling to tech-nerds that couldn't afford/didn't want to slam out the $10k for FSD up front. It's a good way to try it out and potentially experience the beta...
No one will have to wait 100 days, because there are only 84 days between Oct 8 and Dec 31.
I don’t really think so. Right after he said “next Friday” he clarified with “two weeks” which is standard for all things Elon…
What he last tweeted was waiting for version 10.2. Which would be at least another week.
So another week of driving like a Prius.
www.notateslaapp.com
So another week of driving like a Prius.
Tesla FSD Beta: Public release pushed back a week
On September 25th, Tesla rolled out the much anticipated button that allows you to request the FSD Beta. Upon pushing the button, Tesla will monitor your drivi
www.notateslaapp.com
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Or, start with those scoring 100 and work their way down until the additional count of alpha testers is met. Nav on Autopilot is beta, AutoSteer is beta, Nav on City Streets is not beta quality, it's more Alpha, using software engineering terminology, that has been released to some scant number of ppl who pre-purchased FSD.
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Actually I believe they've stopped calling it FSD Beta rather they call it in documentation nav on city streets. FSD is someone in Boston can say NAV to San Francisco and the car will. By looking at the YT videos, this thing is dangerous. Reading between the lines FSD will require HW4. It's uncertain if anyone, after being upgraded to HW3 will get HW4 for free. What I referred to is the car for taking a right turn, presumably left as well, the car creeps into the intersection an then waits several seconds before concluding its safe. That's a recipe for crash.
The videos I refer to are from James Locke. He may well be on here too.
I would hope they don't do that. For someone who 3+years ago paid $10k for FSD only to have their neighbor who paid $200 get it first? I can't see that playing well in Peoria!
Did Tesla promise a full release by end of year? Well, actual beta quality code to all purchasers/subscribers get it by years end?
FalconFour
Member
FSD wasn't $10k 3 years ago... the $10k thing is a relatively recent phenomenon. As some of the FSD features have started materializing, ElonCo seems to keep rationalizing pushing the price higher and higher, and now with EAP gone, FSD is the only way to get features that were previously grouped under the $5k EAP option. If I recall correctly (I may not), I think EAP was $5k + FSD as $3k but getting you nothing but promises.
For what you got, at least $3k was a more rational price tag. Now, it's just AP with a few extra cool features that definitely aren't worth $10k extra.
Oh - but yeah, newcomers floating along and being able to pay $200 just to see if they like it, that's... ha-ha, welp, a bit a slap to those that paid the full $10k. Spare me the "monthly subscription vs. putting it on your loan" calculations, y'all... you can't shrug and say "I'd like to not pay that this month" to a loan and just straight save some money by switching the features off.
It was a joke, because they've been promising it by the end of the year for many years now. And still say "coming later this year."
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