Ohmman, I'd like your opinion as someone who has had considerable time to tow with Model X. Now that the 100D is available, if you were able to decide between the 90D with free supercharging or the 100D without free SC, which would you do? Would the 40 miles of extra range be enough to make you give up free SC?
I live in Phoenix which has very hot summers. Will take one long road trip towing airstream to escape hot Phoenix summer (2,000 - 3,000 miles) per year.
Total estimated mileage will be 12,000 miles/yr
Total Towing mileage 3,000 (2/3's will be supercharger, 1/3 RV parks and destination charging)
Non-Towing mileage 9,000 (Supercharging 50% home 50%)
I am assuming Towing range is 50% of Model X range.
Will keep this car 4 to 5 years then buy another new Tesla. So I am thinking the 5 seater Model X D90 with free SC will have higher resale vs 5 seater 100D no free SC).
Your thoughts?
I will start by saying I'd get the 100D without unlimited Supercharging. For me, there's no question.
However, it really does depend on your personal situation. The two main things that impact the decision should be battery degradation and charge tapering.
First, battery degradation. My 9 month old X90D charges to full at about 250 miles of range. That equates to about 80kWh of usable battery, or 139 miles at 575Wh/mi. That's if I'm willing to get near zero on the battery. So I estimate my real range at highway speeds around 125 miles currently. That's the spacing of a lot of Superchargers. Many, however, are farther apart, and if you add rain, wind, or cold, that range disappears rapidly. It also means I have to charge to absolutely full, which degrades the battery further (as does driving to very low SOCs) and gets us to the next point.
Charge tapering. If I want to make that 125 mile stint between Superchargers, I will be fully immersed in the tapering section of charging. It means very long charging times at Superchargers. The last 5% are crushingly slow. Having a 100D would allow me to charge slightly less than full, saving a lot of time and saving my pack. That would mean that the first point above won't come into play as rapidly. And finally on this point, the P100D packs have been shown to have advanced cooling and more rapid Supercharging profiles. We don't have data on the 100D packs, but I wouldn't be surprised to see the same advances there. If so, you can expect yet another bump in charging speed outside of the tapering penalty.
Now, if you decide that you're only going to visit one Supercharger a day, and you'll hit an RV park in between, limiting miles significantly, it's probably not a big issue. But if you want to cover 300+ miles in a single day, you'll find the 90D slows you down significantly right from delivery, and will only go downhill afterwards.
The upside to the 90D of course is that you can save money. Let's quantify that based on what you've posted above. 3000 miles of towing, 2/3s of which are Supercharger. So 2000 towing Supercharged miles per year. You mention a 5 year ownership period on the vehicle. So 10k miles of towing Supercharging over the life of the car, and 5 years * 4500 miles = 22,500 miles of non-towing Supercharging.
Using California's high rate of $0.20/kWh, a towing consumption of 575Wh/mi, and a non-towing consumption of 340Wh/mi, how much money will it cost you?
(575Wh/mi * 10k miles) + (340Wh/mi * 22.5k miles) = 13,400kWh
13,400kWh * 0.20 = $2680 in Supercharging fees over your ownership. And note that I used the highest price in your area. In many cases, the rates are nearly half. So probably quite a bit less than this number.
For me, saving hours on the road while towing, and saving the life of my battery, is worth that amount. Others may differ, but at least you have the data to make the decision that is right for you.