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Oil companies and alternative energy

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BP prepares output of new biofuels - algae diesel and butanol - starting in 2010 - Autoblog Green
BP could become the first major energy company to start commercial scale production of cellulosic ethanol in 2010 if all goes according to plan. BP has been partnering with Verenium Corporation to commercialize the latter company's process for breaking down cellulose into sugars.
BP is also actively involved in a number of other biofuel projects including algae diesel and butanol. BP is planning to start biobutanol production at a British plant using wheat straw in the 2012/13 time frame. Butanol is seen as an important biofuel because its energy content is closer to gasoline than ethanol and it can be used in most existing engines without modification. The oil giant hopes to have demonstration butanol production running next at a UK facility.
 
Oil industry sees no threat from electric car - Yahoo! Finance

Essentially Exxon and BP believe that by 2030 and even 2040 EVs will only represent 5% or less of the road vehicle fleet and that oil will supply 87% (balance being biofuels and natural gas).

As the article says the oil companies' projections are self-serving. I hope politicians and public are not deceived by them into inaction. I also hope for the article's view that the projections might spur politicians to more incentives for EV adoption.

Finally - I recall sectors past that have made projections like this: gas lighting, typewriters, long-distance passenger trains in the US (though that one just may make a comeback).
 
Finally - I recall sectors past that have made projections like this: gas lighting, typewriters, long-distance passenger trains in the US (though that one just may make a comeback).

Steam engines. Horse power. Whale oil. On a sadder note, local same-day bakeries (in the US); fresh milk delivery...

Every incumbent business predicts that it won't have to change its business model.
 
Fortunately, fresh milk delivery and local bakeries are making a comeback. My sister, in North Carolina, has milk delivered in gas jugs twice a week. My local coffee shop (and indie shop owned by neighbors) stocks only freshly baked goods from nearby bakeries.

But you make a good point: "Every incumbent business predicts that it won't have to change its business model." There are some visionaries that are the exception: Nissan clearly sees a different route, and Chevron is placing non-trivial side-bets on non-fossil fuels.

To add to the list of faded business models: mainframe computing (IBM), film photography (Kodak), workgroup computing (DEC), one-black-phone-is-enough (Bell).
 
Sony has IBM disease. Too many divisions in competition with each other. So none of them end up with full support.

Microsoft is suffering from the same disease, just not as far along as Sony.

It's mind boggling to think that the company who came up with the Walkman just threw away the portable music and cell phone market because of internal squabbles.