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OK ... what is Tesla trying to do now?

jonquiljo

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Sep 26, 2019
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SF Bay Area - Marin
Tesla never ceases to amaze me. Looking at their ordering site today, I now see that Model 3’s are shown as “5-9 weeks for delivery” for SR+ and AWD trims and “7-9 weeks for delivery” for Performance trims. Yesterday it read “6-10 weeks” and “8-10 weeks respectively. This makes absolutely no sense!

Tesla is clearly trying to show that our positions in the queue are advancing (whether real or hype) - the rationale being wait a week, and 6-10 weeks advances to 5-9 weeks. Of course this conveniently still projects all deliveries in Q4.

But, this does not take into account that orders (lots and lots of them) are being placed all the time. If Tesla can keep up with N. American orders, ordering a week later should give the same time to delivery a week later. 6-8 weeks should be 6-8 weeks a week later - at best. These numbers are an “if you ordered now” projection. The only way that could change is if Tesla got no orders in the last week. Hardly true! The “weeks until delivery” time on the website supposedly applies to orders places now.

I guess this makes me wonder if all these website numbers are just artificial at best. If so, this time next week will show delivery windows of 4-8 weeks and 6-8 weeks.
 
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dandrewk

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Jun 25, 2019
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Marin County, CA
This only applies if we knew exactly how many orders Tesla has booked (even though many are "soft" orders) and how many Model 3's they plan to produce and deliver this quarter. Keep in mind, it's a "promise" made that has critical timing involved due to the tax credit expiring.

It was the exact same thing last year. Tesla ended up filling most, maybe all orders within the promised time. They even offered to rebate the tax credit if the customer couldn't take delivery by 12/31 due to "no fault of their own".

Otherwise, it makes perfect sense. I ordered a week ago, and the website said "6-10" weeks. A week later, it changed to "5-9". It sounds like they aren't worried. It will be interesting to see if it changes to "4-8" next week.
 

dmurphy

Buster: 11/25/14 - 6/20/21. So sorely missed.
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Dec 7, 2018
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New Jersey - Morris County
Of course this conveniently still projects all deliveries in Q4.

... exactly. What the website is trying to say (and should say) is "Delivered before the end of 2019."

Orders are *not* allocated in first-come, first-served fashion. They're built in batches. For example, they'll schedule a week to build nothing but Blue LR AWD's. Then, 3 days of Red SR+. Then, 4 days of White Performance, so on and so forth. For example, right now orders are being built for the overseas markets - none of us are on the factory floor, but I wouldn't be surprised if they're even building right-hand-drive vehicles at the moment.

So it's not a first-in-first-out queue. Just that you ordered first, doesn't mean you'll get yours first. Yours will come in whenever your "batch" runs and then delivered thereafter.

What their website is saying is that there'll be at least one run of each batch between now and the end of the year, so you'll get a delivery before the end of 2019.

No more, no less.

If you look at the batch manufacturing process, this makes sense. They pretty much have to do it this way, what with a single factory pumping out every vehicle they make. It's much, much more efficient.
 

dandrewk

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Jun 25, 2019
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Why would color make a difference? It's one of the last steps, maybe even after the wheels have been added. A white SR+ has the same paint job as the other trims.
 

dmurphy

Buster: 11/25/14 - 6/20/21. So sorely missed.
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Dec 7, 2018
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Why would color make a difference? It's one of the last steps, maybe even after the wheels have been added. A white SR+ has the same paint job as the other trims.

It makes ALL the difference, precisely because it's the last step. You don't want to be shooting different colors on each car as they roll off the line - that'd be a logistical nightmare. So everything rolling in while the paint shop is "loaded" for white, let's say, needs to be painted white.

Sure, you can do SR and LR's at the same time, as long as they're all white. And as long as you have all the assembly in place to change up drivetrains and software loads and interior colors and wheels and chargers and batteries all from car to car. If I've got sleds of SR batteries loaded, and then I try to build a LR, I have to change the sled.

If I've got trays of 32a chargers loaded, but then an LR comes in, I've got to use a 48a charger instead.

If I've got all my black door panels, dashboard, seats, and trim loaded, and then a vehicle comes in that needs a white interior, I've got to reload all of that.

There's not much free room at Fremont; pretty tight quarters. So it's not like they're going to have multiple lines doing interiors, for example. So you run a batch of SRs, with white interiors, and white exteriors. Then, SR with black interiors and white exteriors. Then, LR with black interiors and white exteriors, depending on my parts stocks. So on and so forth.

It's a gigantic logistical dance, as parts are available and delivered, you assemble and build everything you possibly can with the minimal of changes needed.
 

PowerBankT

Member
Oct 22, 2019
182
183
Florida
No, color doesn't matter. He's not completely wrong though.

They manufacture AWD, SR+, and Performance models in batches (this is from Tesla, not from me). Seat Trims and Colors come after batch engine/body configs.
 

dandrewk

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Jun 25, 2019
1,226
934
Marin County, CA
No, color doesn't matter. He's not completely wrong though.

They manufacture AWD, SR+, and Performance models in batches (this is from Tesla, not from me). Seat Trims and Colors come after batch engine/body configs.

Was about to say that.

Color has to be the last step, otherwise there's a great risk of damage to paint/finish. And if videos I saw from a domestic plant several years ago is an indication, painting is not done on the line per se. The cars go into a separate chamber where individual colors are applied. It could be they do several batches of the same color and then change. But at the beginning of the line, the cars could end up being any color.

The biggest deciding factor is the trim. This is why the P versions have a different estimate than the others.
 

rtshefe

Member
Oct 11, 2019
321
267
NC
paint is first..how are they supposed to paint the car with all the motor and cooling components and interior parts. Overspray would get everywhere..and they wouldnt be able to get inside the doors, frunk..everything. the entire chassis/body of the car is painted as the very first step then the interior is installed.
 

PowerBankT

Member
Oct 22, 2019
182
183
Florida
This isn't paint being the first step, as the deciding factor for which car gets produced, is my point.

This shell (for example in the video) already has a VIN at this point, and is slated as a LR/AWD, SR+, or P Model. All three of these trims, have different interior trims (speakers / amps for one). They'll produce LR (in a variety of colors, example being reds, then blues, then whites etc) in batches, and then move to another trim.
 

jonquiljo

Supporting Member
Supporting Member
Sep 26, 2019
1,064
527
SF Bay Area - Marin
This has to do with overall deliveries. Someone posted today that they just placed an order with order #84793. My 10/11 order was 52515. That means in the last two weeks alone, Tesla has received over 32,000 orders for cars. This does not include the almost 20,000 orders between 10/1 and 10/11 (my order I was never able to pick up and my re-order), or all the September orders left unfulfilled. That means approximately 52,000 cars have been ordered since 10/1. Add that to unfulfilled orders from September and that’s a lot of cars to build!

Now 75% of those (at best) are Model 3’s, and it is not clear how many there are in N. America. But it suggests that orders are coming in faster than Tesla could possibly make these cars in Fremont. At best, delivery times should be the same, not getting faster. Tesla is at capacity. Its not even clear when N American production will re-start, though it would have to have restarted by now to deliver all cars - even those ordered now.

We’ll know for sure if next week - the numbers show 4-8 weeks and 6-8 weeks. We’re running out of weeks, and people have not stopped ordering cars.
 

SMAlset

Well-Known Member
Mar 4, 2017
9,188
10,056
SF Bay Area
Both of our cars were pretty right on in the delivery window, in fact maybe a few days before. And that was before all of this year’s Model 3 ramp up.

The way I see it is things are being modified at the factory as time goes on, apart from part updates. Overseas vehicles maybe be produced with right side steering wheels for some countries so will require some time to change the production line when going back to left side. They might have more orders overseas they want to get out so deciding to run the line longer. Maybe overseas government action is requiring something different. Now that China is soon to be in production some of those US orders could be switched overseas. They are getting ready for Model Y and maybe that’s somehow affecting things. Maybe there’s a delay in receiving a part or paint color for a particular trim. Maybe they need to take advantage of some volume pricing on transport with in a period of time. Maybe they need to shut down for line improvements or holiday time.

Do not understand why people seem to come up with conspiracy theories and saying Tesla is making stuff up or lying. They’ve been doing this for a number of years now and are focused on improving production and delivering cars. Yes, the Model 3 especially is in hot demand and people are anxious about getting one but maybe a chill pill is in order.
 

rtshefe

Member
Oct 11, 2019
321
267
NC
my rn from the 29th is 26445

im not too worried about it right now..
I did order on the 29th and for weeks after it still said "within 2 weeks" on my order..but then it changed to 8-10 weeks. I know my performance isnt coming till december and im finally coming to terms with it..

whining about it online isnt going to make it come any faster

I did however rent the one off turo again to remind me why im waiting
 

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